Dem
51
GOP
49
Yesterday, we wrote that Joe Biden simply could not accept anything other than a clean debt-limit-increase bill. That's the key for him. If he allows Republicans to hold the economy hostage in order to gain concessions in 2023 then, like Pavlov's dogs and the meat powder, they will immediately start drooling about all the things they can demand in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
What we should also have written is that passing a budget-slashing debt-ceiling bill was the key for Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). If McCarthy couldn't get something this important and this visible over the finish line, then nobody would take him seriously anymore. No, it was definitely bill or bust.
Yesterday, he pulled a rabbit (an elephant) out of a hat and managed to get a bill through the House. McCarthy was forced to reopen negotiations, something he said he would not do, and to rewrite the bill to be even more satisfactory to the far-right elements in his conference. He was also forced to make some promises to moderates that it will be... interesting to see if he actually delivers upon. For example, he promised Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) a vote on a bill related to women's reproductive freedom. And even with all this horse trading, the bill eked out a narrow win, 217-215, made possible only by the fact that a couple of Democrats were absent yesterday.
Now the bill heads to the Senate, where it's dead on arrival. The only question is exactly how Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will kill it. Does it head straight to the circular file? Or does Schumer bring it up for a vote that will put many Republicans in an awkward position, but that the Democratic caucus has enough votes to guarantee failure? Only Schumer knows for sure.
The next question is the messaging. The Republicans in the House are already talking about how they are the only ones who have an actual solution to the debt ceiling in place, and how they are determined to rein in wasteful spending on things like the environment. The problem is that Senate Republicans don't love the bill, nor do many Republican officeholders at the state level. Meanwhile, the Democrats have many possible angles here. Among them:
We stand by our view, expressed yesterday, that the Democrats have the stronger side of this.
The third question, and the big one, is exactly how the debt ceiling situation will be resolved. Now that McCarthy has his bill, there could be several weeks of playing chicken, as everyone waits for the other side to blink. But it now looks like the clock will run out in early June, so a denouement is not far off. If we were advising Joe Biden, we'd tell him to issue a statement much like this one:
Reading over my copy of the Constitution, I notice the Fourteenth Amendment says: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."
Meanwhile, I know my Republican colleagues are big supporters of trying to figure out the "original intent" of those who wrote and passed important legislation. Well, the purpose of the debt ceiling was actually to make it easier for the executive branch to manage the budget, not harder.
These things being the case, the federal government will continue paying its debts. Congress is free to raise the debt ceiling, lower it, or get rid of it—I really don't care. I'm sure that those Republicans who object will be able to work through their feelings on Fox's airwaves.
This would certainly help burnish the image of "strong, decisive leader Joe" at the expense of "gets-nobody-excited-about-another-term Joe."
Another approach would be for him to say that he took an oath to see that the laws are faithfully executed. Congress has passed many appropriations bills in the past so he is obligated to spend the money as Congress directed, Since there is not enough tax money coming in to do that, the government will have to issue debt in order for me to see that all the appropriations laws are fully executed as Congress intended.
We won't have to wait terribly long to see how this drama plays out. And keep in mind that nobody knows for sure when smoke and mirrors will stop working, while simply approaching the cliff is enough to damage the economy, even if there's no plunge over the cliff. So, the real deadline here is something like May 20. (Z)