Dem
51
GOP
49
We almost went with the standard construction, but decided "knife to a gun fight" just doesn't do justice to how asymmetrical this warfare actually is. Reportedly, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) remains determined to bring his "raise the debt ceiling for 10 months in exchange for gutting the Democrats' political program" bill to the floor of the House for a vote this week. And so, he and his team are desperately whipping votes, and pooh-poohing whispers from GOP members that he's not going to be able to get the bill over the hump.
But what if McCarthy does find the votes? That's a big if, but assuming he pulls it off, then what? There's zero chance the bill gets past the Senate where, last we checked, non-Republicans still have a majority, and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) decides what bills come up for a vote. The only way the bill comes up in the upper chamber is if Schumer wants to get Republican votes on the record, for messaging purposes. But many Senate Republicans don't want the label of "voted against food for poor children" or "voted to gut spending for green technology," and they absolutely hate the idea of extending the debt ceiling for one more year, and then having this same exact fight in the middle of primary season next year. So, if and when the bill did come up for a vote, it might well go down to defeat 60-40 or 75-25. And even if it did somehow make it past the Senate, Joe Biden has already promised a veto.
How do any of these options help McCarthy? Patrick J. Brown, who appears to have replaced Scott Jennings as CNN's "intellectual conservative (whose arguments aren't actually all that good)," decrees that if the Speaker does get a bill passed, then the Democrats would be in a very difficult position. Brown's notion is that the blue team would be forced to the negotiating table, and "will need to overcome their distaste for brinksmanship and make some sacrifices." This is ostensibly McCarthy's thinking, as well.
We just don't see it. At times like these, we are reminded of Michael Corleone's line from The Godfather: "I don't care what Sollozzo says about a deal, he's gonna kill Pop. That's it. That's the key for him." In this case, Biden does not have any option except a clean debt-limit increase. That's the key for him. The President simply cannot communicate to Republicans: "Hey, every year you control either chamber of Congress, you can feel free to hold the world economy hostage in order to extract a bunch of concessions." If McCarthy & Co. were offering to permanently eliminate the debt ceiling, or to push the next confrontation 10 years into the future, then that might be a basis for negotiations. But a year? And then let's do this all again? No way.
And let's not forget that Biden has tools at his disposal that the Republicans do not. There are the cutesy schemes like minting a trillion-dollar coin, and things like that. But being an institutionalist like he is, if push came to shove, Biden would surely just observe that the Constitution obligates him to make good on the nation's debts, and that he plans to do exactly that, and if McCarthy and the Republicans want to file suit and conspire with Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito to crash the economy, they can feel free to do so. And note, incidentally, that the closer to armageddon we get, the more political cover Biden has for something like this, and the more leader-ly he will look if he does it. So, he might already have decided to play his hand this way, but he's not going to lay the cards on the table until moments after Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen tells him that the smoke and mirrors are no longer going to work.
On top of this, Biden and the Democrats control the Senate. If and when it becomes necessary, they should be able to pass a clean debt-limit bill, which will mean that the blue team can say "Hey, we've got a bill" and the red team can say the same. That's a bit different, PR-wise, than the red team having a bill and the blue team having nothing.
And that brings us to the messaging battle. Republicans are going to argue that they have undertaken their crusade in order to eliminate wasteful social spending and economy-killing taxes and all the usual talking points. And that stuff thrills the base—the same base that's already voting Republican. Meanwhile, the White House is preparing to talk about how it held the line to protect Social Security and Medicare, and to keep investing in infrastructure and combating global warming. Team Biden is also getting ready to make liberal use of terms like "ransom" and "wacko ideas." The Biden administration thinks it has the stronger side of this argument. Given how the voters feel about things like Social Security, we think that is correct.
In short, we just don't see how this can work out well for McCarthy. At most, he might get a couple of face-saving concessions, but otherwise the other side has far more weapons, and also the more popular message. (Z)