Dem
51
GOP
49
Donald Trump tried very hard to deploy his usual technique of delay, delay, delay, and it didn't work. So, his civil trial for raping and defaming E. Jean Carroll has begun, and a jury has been seated.
Trump has already made a couple of critical decisions that, on the whole, do not bode well for him. First, he's not appearing at the trial, and he's not expected to take the stand as a witness in his own defense (though he could plausibly be called by the plaintiff). It's understandable why Trump's legal team told him to stay away. He's got a short attention span, and would never have the discipline necessary to manage his body language for 6-10 hours a day. And, of course, he's terrible on a witness stand, and a constant risk to say something damaging or perjurious. However, not showing up also sends a message to the jury, something along the lines of "this is beneath me." That's not a great look, especially since Carroll cuts a very sympathetic figure.
The second decision is that Trump's lead attorney is Joseph Tacopina. He's a brawler, which is good for certain contexts, but not usually great for rape cases. Taking the second chair is Alina Habba, who is obviously there to provide a "female" face to the defense, but who has little trial experience, and little experience with New York law (she's licensed in Florida). At the other table will be Roberta Kaplan, who is one of the best-regarded courthouse lawyers in New York City and who knows how to set the right tone in a case like this. Lawyer and former federal prosecutor Robert Katzberg, writing for Slate, observes: "[I]n a case where a woman has accused a man of physically brutalizing her, the contrast between Tacopina's alpha-male persona and Kaplan's reasonable professionalism will only reinforce Carroll's claims."
There are also some things beyond Trump's control that do not work in his favor. The judge is Lewis Kaplan (no relation to Roberta), who is known as a no-nonsense jurist with little patience for shenanigans. Legal-watchers in New York are already betting with each other about how many times Tacopina will be found in contempt of court. In addition, Kaplan has already made some important rulings about evidence, including that several of Trump's other alleged victims will be allowed to testify and also that the infamous Access Hollywood tape can be admitted into evidence.
This trial isn't getting a fraction of the attention that the Alvin Bragg matter is, or that potential trials in Georgia and Washington, DC are getting and will get at such point that an indictment is issued. Presumably, that is because many people long to see Trump behind bars, and that's at least a possible outcome in the other three cases while it's not in this one. That's our best guess, at least.
That said, losing in this trial might actually do Trump more damage, politically, than any of the others. The other offenses he might be charged with are at least somewhat complicated, or are things that the base long ago dismissed as legitimate (There was no attempt to steal the election! He didn't steal documents!). Plus, Trump might be able to drag those matters out for years. On the other hand, this trial is going to be resolved in a matter of weeks. And while it's one thing to be a confessed pu**y grabber, it's another thing entirely to be a convicted rapist (even if it's a civil conviction). And since this is not criminal, it only takes 8 of the 9 jurors (five-sixths, per New York law) for Trump to lose. So, a single "lone Trumper" is not going to save his bacon. In the event of an adverse verdict, he's going to lose even more of the women voters who are still sticking with him, and probably some of the men, too. In fact, this might be the circumstance most likely to create a real opening for a non-Trump candidate. If the former president loses this case, and his poll numbers hold, he's almost certainly bulletproof and it's full steam ahead to the nomination. (Z)