Dem
51
GOP
49
In 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic was raging, Joe Biden did most of his campaigning from the basement of his house in Delaware. He even had a special television studio built there. For better or worse, that won't fly in 2024. This time he will have to come out of hiding and meet the voters. He will have to go to factories, diners, union halls, and hold public rallies all over the country. It's something he hasn't done for a while. Then there is the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which will be real, not virtual, in 2024.
The last time Biden ran a full-scale national campaign was in 2012, when he ran for vice president the second time. That was 12 years before 2024 and things have changed somewhat. One thing that has changed is that Biden is older now and his age is a big issue. In-person campaigning could cut both ways. He could show that he is in good shape and up to the job or he could look old and weak. And he has to do the campaigning in his spare time since he also has a day job to do. This could stretch him thin or tire him out. On the other hand, people know who he is, so he doesn't have to campaign day and night just to get name recognition. In addition, the Republican Party could solve his "get-out-the-vote" problem by nominating Donald Trump. Trump is also no spring chicken. He will be 78 if and when he accepts the Republican nomination and everyone will be looking for signs of aging there, too.
Another aspect of the campaign that will be different is the ground war. In 2020, the DNC prohibited volunteers from knocking on doors and talking to the voters. That will not be true this time. Also, some people voted for Biden in 2020 just to "get back to normal." That won't be a factor in 2024, but the economy (especially inflation and maybe recession) could be. In short, the campaign will be very different from the 2020 campaign. (V)