Apr.19

electoral-vote.com

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GOP 49

Iowa Could Get Very, Very Interesting

As long as we are talking about the 2024 election months and months in advance, The Bulwark's Mike Murphy has an interesting item about the Iowa caucuses, in which he points out two significant problems that face Donald Trump in the Hawkeye State.

The first problem is that Trump, who has never been a great fit for Iowa (recall that Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, beat Trump in the caucuses in 2016), is not so popular with Iowa Republicans these days. Quite a few of them are shopping around for someone new, different, and not under indictment. So, if the 2024 caucus was a normal caucus, Trump could very well be beaten out for first place.

The second problem is that 2024 is not a normal caucus. Recall that the Democrats have killed their version of the caucus. So, those independent and Democratic voters who are used to being a deeply involved part of the political process are going to have nothing to do when caucus time rolls around next year. Well, unless they show up to participate in the Republican caucuses, that is.

Historically, the Iowa GOP has been very liberal (no pun intended) about giving anyone who shows up for their caucuses the chance to participate. As far as the Party was concerned, it was a great way to win new converts to the Republican banner. Now, for fear of non-Republicans showing up in droves, the rules for participating might be tightened (say, a person may have to register at least 70 days prior to the caucuses). But even if new rules are imposed, there is still going to be some number of independents and Democrats who jump through the necessary hoops. Maybe some large number.

If non-Republicans do participate in large numbers, they would seem to have three basic choices:

• Ratfu**ing: Support the looniest, most embarrassing candidate. Like, say, Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) or Kari Lake, if either of them jumps in.
  
  
• Trumpfu**ing: Support the most viable alternative to Trump, just in hopes of derailing Trump 2024. At the moment, that would presumably mean Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
  
  
• RINOfu**ing: Support the most tolerable, non-loony Republican, in hopes of undermining Trumpism and giving non-nutty Republican voters a real candidate to vote for. At the moment, that would probably mean Asa Hutchinson or, if one of them gets in, Will Hurd or Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH).

Any aspirational Republican should be spending all of their time in Iowa for the next 8 months, and zero time in the probably-lost-to-Trump New Hampshire. If someone manages to outpace Trump in the Hawkeye State, they might just become the official Trump alternative.

In any event, it should be very interesting to watch. Though we don't envy Ann Selzer, who has to figure out what to do with this rather unprecedented mess of a situation. (Z)