Apr.18

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DeSantis Is Making a Deal (or Two) with the Devil

When Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) began to maneuver in anticipation of a presidential bid, we wrote numerous times that many politicians who had much success in politics wilted once they got to the big leagues. And, of course, we wondered whether that fate would also befall the governor. After all, the road to the White House is littered with the carcasses of folks like Jeb Bush, Howard Dean, Rudy Giuliani and Jerry Brown.

As we wrote last week, the early returns are not good. DeSantis is trying to outflank Donald Trump from the right, and the further right the Governor goes, the further he sinks in the polls. DeSantis just got another terrible poll, one from, of all places, The Association for Canadian Studies. According to the 'Nades, Trump is up 30 points, 52% to 22%. Readers might be skeptical, for obvious reasons, but recall that this comports with other recent polls of the (shadow) race. FiveThirtyEight also just launched its national polling average tracker for 2024, and they have Trump up nearly 25 points, on average, 49.4% to 25.9%.

The purpose of running for president is well, to be elected president. Marianne Williamson, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) don't know this (and please don't tell them because it will ruin their day), but DeSantis does. That means you have to balance factors that will help you in the primary but could be fatal in the general election. Getting a major party nomination and then going down in flames in November doesn't hack it.

Nevertheless, DeSantis just made a deal with the devil. He signed a bill that will ban almost all abortions after a woman has been pregnant for 6 weeks. Of course, many women don't even know they are pregnant at 6 weeks. So de facto this will end most abortions in Florida. In the Republican primaries, pitching how aggressively pro-life he is might help DeSantis win over Trump supporters. However, the same action that could (possibly) help him in the primaries could be fatal if he makes it to the general election. Abortion was a key topic in the 2022 midterms. It also figured in six referendums and a recent Supreme Court election in Wisconsin. A record of strongly opposing abortion, which is what DeSantis now has, is going to be a big millstone around his neck in the general election, if he gets that far.

It would be ironic if the thing that gets him the nomination is the same thing that dooms him in the general election, but that could happen if Trump falters. Democrats fully understand this and going to make sure all the voters understand it as well. Jackson Peel, a spokesman for Florida House Democrats said: "I can't understand what DeSantis' political calculus is here. Once this ball started rolling, he couldn't stop it. He either loses the primary or he loses the general over this issue."

Groups like Planned Parenthood are making concrete plans to knock on doors, run digital ads, and register voters to make sure everyone knows where DeSantis stands. They are especially focused on the bellwether states any Republican must win in the general election. Some Republican candidates, like Scott, can try to deflect and hide from the issue, but DeSantis signature on the Florida bill makes that completely impossible. A situation where the thing that could get him the nomination is the same thing that could destroy him in the general election is truly a deal with the devil.

It isn't that Republicans as a whole aren't aware of the problem abortion is going to cause them. They know very well, but also know that not being gung ho enough will be fatal with their base while being so is fatal with independents they need to win general elections. Basically, they are scared and the more it is in the news, the worse it gets. Heaven forbid that the Supreme Court upholds (part of) the decision by Texas Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk. That would fire up Democrats and Independents to new heights and put all Republicans in a terrible bind, just like DeSantis: Please the base and lose the general election or antagonize the base and maybe lose the nomination. It's going to be tough.

And recall, we didn't write that it's just one deal with the devil... it's potentially two. DeSantis backs Florida HB 1617, which is currently winding its way through the state legislature. It's an anti-immigration bill, one that includes some of the standard anti-immigrant stuff, like forcing hospitals to collect information on patients' immigration status (with an eye toward denying them healthcare), and denying DACA recipients the right to obtain law licenses. But the "highlight" of the bill is verbiage that makes guilty of a felony anyone who "Conceals, harbors, or shields from detection, or attempts to conceal, harbor, or shield from detection, in any place within this state, including any temporary or permanent structure or any means of transportation, an individual whom the person knows, or reasonably should know, has entered the United States in violation of law." The bill also criminalizes the knowing and willful transport of undocumented immigrants. The maximum penalty is five years in prison, five more years' probation and a $5,000 fine for each offense.

If the law was written to apply to problematic situations, like sex trafficking, or perhaps the "coyotes" who make their living sneaking people across the border (often in dangerous fashion), then one might be able to defend the bill. But as constituted, the legislation would make felons out of a lot of immigrant families. If dad, for example, is undocumented, then sleeping in the same house with him and driving him to work the next day would be a potential 10-years-in-prison crime. This kind of arrangement is quite common in many southwestern states.

Who knows if the Florida law will pass, or how it will be enforced if it does. But, in many ways, the damage has already been done. We suspect that the Governor thinks he "understands" Latino voters, because he's done so well with Cubans in Florida. But Cubans, on the whole, were welcomed to the U.S. with open arms because they were fleeing a hated communist regime. They are generally somewhat conservative on immigration policy, as a result. By contrast, the Mexicans who predominate in the Southwest had a very different experience. And for many of them, a bill like this is a dealbreaker. It largely doesn't even matter if it passes; the mere fact that DeSantis would support such measures is all it takes. And you can bet that, like the Planned Parenthood folks, the activists with organizations like Mi Familia Vota and Voto Latino will make certain everyone knows where the governor stands.

The upshot here is that DeSantis is taking an extreme position on abortion, which is going to be deeply problematic for him in the Upper Midwest/Rust Belt area. And he's taking an extreme position on immigration, which is going to deeply problematic for him in the Southwest. And you know what the Midwest/Rust Belt/Southwest contain? Virtually all of the swing states (except Georgia). And these positions aren't just extreme (as compared to the national electorate), they are what might be called "unforgivable." That is to say, a candidate might, over the course of 12-14 months, pivot away from an extreme position on, say, fossil fuel extraction or tariffs on China. But the relevant voters do not forgive and do not forget extreme positions on abortion and immigration.

And compare that to Donald Trump. Yes, he talked about building the wall that never got built, and he rounded up immigrant families and put them in cages. That did not play well with many Latino voters. But he never backed policies that could have turned immigrants who can actually vote into felons. Similarly, he has led, for something like 6 years, a party whose core issue is restricting abortion. And yet, does anyone really know what his position on abortion is? Yes, he's appointed anti-abortion judges, but that's another case of him reaping the benefits of something, while shifting the blame to someone else. The former president has, by hook or by crook, largely danced around this politically tricky issue.

In any case, DeSantis' unimpressive entry onto the national stage is already having consequences for him. Thomas Peterffy, who was one of those billionaires willing to give DeSantis' PAC a blank check, has announced that he's no longer backing the Governor. While Peterffy appreciates the war against Disney, he otherwise thinks DeSantis has veered too far right, between the abortion ban and the book bans.

Meanwhile, more and more Republican officeholders are lining up behind Trump. Yesterday, five more members of Congress gave their support to the former president. The five are the two Tennessee senators (Marsha Blackburn and Bill Hagerty, both R), and three representatives (Greg Steube, R-FL, and John Rose and Diana Harshbarger, both R-TN). Overall, here's a tally of the endorsements that Trump and DeSantis have landed:

The only place where DeSantis is doing better than Trump, endorsement-wise, is among state legislators. And that's only because pretty much the entire Utah legislature has backed him.

DeSantis may be a clumsy presidential candidate, at least judging by the results so far, but he's certainly savvy enough to know he's got trouble. So, according to The Wall Street Journal, he's rebooting his presidential campaign. That's a pretty remarkable thing for a campaign that does not technically exist, as yet, and where the actual election is 18 months away. Note, however, that the plan for the reboot is to tack even further right; signing the abortion bill was, in effect, the starting point for DeSantis 2024 v2.0. There is no way that getting even more extreme is going to work for him, so we are looking forward to DeSantis 2024 v3.0. Maybe it will come with signs that say "Ron!" (V & Z)