Dem
51
GOP
49
A lot of Republicans saw Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) as the future of their party. He is as conservative as any other Republican governor, but sane, easy going, and good looking in a lovely fleece. The idea here is: Put the same old politics in a much more attractive package and you have a winner. Brilliant, no? They tend to forget that he beat a tired old Democratic retread by only 2 points in low-turnout, off-year election. Still, he's not a loose cannon like Donald Trump or venal like Ron DeSantis, so he'd be a shoo-in for president, right?
The only fly in the ointment is that he doesn't seem to be interested, at least not now. Youngkin hasn't done the full Sherman, but has said that his entire focus now is on the Virginia legislative elections in Nov. 2023. The real reason for this lack of interest is that he hasn't achieved much of anything since being inaugurated in Jan. 2022. This lack of achievement is not due to lack of ambition. He has plenty of that. What he doesn't have is 21 seats in the state Senate. The Democrats control 22 of the 40 seats and are not the slightest bit interested in helping his career. Republicans control 52 of the seats in 100-member General Assembly. Without control of the whole legislature, he can't pull off all the stunts that Ron DeSantis can and has little to show for his time as governor.
Youngkin's goal is to capture majorities in both chambers of the state legislature in November, when all 140 seats are on the line. Then he could begin a whirlwind of bills banning abortion, allowing parents to ban books in school libraries, fighting woke corporations, and the whole nine yards. But in the best case, that couldn't begin until Jan. 2024, when the new legislature is seated. Furthermore, it is certainly not a given that the Republicans will capture both chambers of the legislature, especially if abortion is the main issue in the legislative elections. In any event, by January, he would have missed the initial Republican debates and the Iowa caucuses would be just a couple of weeks in the future. He is currently polling below 1%, and it might not be so easy to make that up in 3 or 4 weeks.
It appears that Youngkin is serious about not running since he is not doing the things candidates do. He even said: "Listen, I didn't write a book, and I'm not in Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina." His top political strategists, Jeff Roe and Kristin Davison, both signed on to help DeSantis. They know what he is really thinking. If Youngkin's game plan were to win the legislature, make a sharp right turn the first week of January 2024, and then jump into the Iowa or New Hampshire races, they wouldn't have jumped ship.
What is also a factor here is that the legislative maps are brand new, without regard to current incumbents, so anything could happen, including Democratic control of both chambers. Of course, if the Republicans win massive landslides in both chambers in November, then he will be seen as a giant killer, and might be able to jump in at the last minute and do well. This means a lot is riding on the Virginia legislative elections, including how powerful a force abortion is in elections for state legislatures. (V)