Dem
51
GOP
49
Generally, we put presidential news ahead of congressional news, but we will make a special exception for Sen Tim Scott (R-SC) and put him last because his run is so pointless. Scott just launched an exploratory committee to run for president. In his announcement, he attacked Joe Biden. That's all fine and good if he gets the Republican nomination and makes it to the general election. But first he has to win that nomination. How about attacking Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis? Those are his initial opponents. We estimate his chances of getting it at roughly 0%, give or take ±0.00001%
We don't get it. He isn't up for reelection to the Senate until 2026. Besides, he won in 2022 by 26 points. He doesn't need more exposure for his next Senate run. Although he is Black, that little (R) after his name on the ballot clearly trumps being Black. We cannot conceive of any circumstances in which he would get even 5% of the vote in any Republican primary other than South Carolina, and if he does there, no one will count it since he would be a favorite son there. We also cannot conceive of any ticket on which he would make sense as the veep. Most of the leading candidates (except Nikki Haley) will look hard for a woman as running mate and even if they ended up with a man, we can't see what he would bring to the ticket. His state? Sure, but that's a given no matter what. Black voters? Not when the other side also has a Black person (Kamala Harris) on the ticket.
So what is Scott up to? Does he want to add a line to his C.V.: Ran for president and got an astounding 7% in the South Carolina primary before flaming out? Why did we pick 7%? A new poll from Winthrop University of the South Carolina Republican primary has Trump at 41%, DeSantis at 20%, Nikki Haley at 18%, and Scott fourth at 7%. Our best guess is that as a backbencher in the minority, he is bored with his Senate work and would like a bit of excitement for a few months. Being crushed by the big boys (Trump and DeSantis) would not be embarrassing, but being crushed by Haley will make him look like a fool for running. Maybe he is a fool. Nothing else makes any sense. (V)