Dem
51
GOP
49
There is much about the 2024 elections in West Virginia that remains up in the air. We don't know if Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) will run for reelection, will try to get his old job as governor back, or will retire from politics so he can spend his days puttering around until he goes to the big coal mine in the sky. We also don't know if Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), who is term-limited, will decide he likes the sound of "Sen. Jim Justice," and will throw his hat into that ring, or if he'll decide he's had enough of politics.
Just because the state's two most prominent politicians are in a holding pattern does not mean there's not meaningful news out of West Virginia, however. To start with, state AG Patrick Morrisey (R) has announced that he's running for governor. In addition, the Club for Growth (and other right-wing groups) have decided that the former Democrat Justice, though conservative, is a RINO and they don't want him as their senator. So yesterday, they said they would back the much further right Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) for the job.
At this point, the most interesting question, of course, is exactly what Manchin is going to do. We find it unlikely that he plans to retire. He's got politics in his blood and, on top of that, he's spent the last couple of months loudly carping about how Joe Biden is just too durned lib'rul. All of this has the feel of someone who's gearing up for an election in West Virginia next year.
If Manchin does run, then what office should he run for? At this point, let us point out that there has only been one poll of Manchin vs. [Republican] done in 2023, and it's from The Tarrance Group, which is a Republican outfit. Nonetheless, their numbers are pretty stark, and conform with the general sense of things expressed by experts in West Virginia politics, and by Republican pooh-bahs, among them Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). According to Tarrance, Justice would defeat Manchin 52% to 42%, Manchin would defeat Morrisey by the exact same margin, and Manchin would defeat Mooney 55% to 40%.
The correct choice here seems crystal clear to us, and that is that Manchin should run to keep his Senate seat. There's an excellent chance he could end up facing off against Mooney, the weakest candidate of the three; that would happen if Justice doesn't run or if Justice loses to Mooney in the primary. And even if Justice survives to the general, he'd be bloodied, and would be left trying to unite his base. Plus, running for the Senate, Manchin would enjoy the benefits of incumbency, particularly the argument "Hey, I have the seniority to bring home the bacon." That would not be true if he ran for governor.
So, our guess is that he announces a reelection bid, and sooner rather than later. Of course, Manchin is one of the most inscrutable members of Congress, so take any predictions about him with a grain of salt. Or a lump of coal, if you prefer. (Z)
Note: The last few days have been heavy on news and other commitments. We'll do Venality, Part II on Friday, and then we'll be back on course next week. That said, we would be interested in readers' answers to two questions. First, should be do two bracket entries per week, or four? Second, would it be better to do letters on Saturday and questions and answers on Sunday? We've had both of these suggestions via e-mail, and so while we're not committing to anything, we'd like to know what people think. If you care to weigh in, here is the place.