Apr.05

electoral-vote.com

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Abortion Is Going to be on the Ballot in Many Places

As long as we are on the subject, there are many states where one party or the other does not control enough of the state government to impose that party's preferred abortion policy. Not all of those states allow ballot initiatives, but some of them do. And so, there are already a number of abortion-related ballot initiatives in progress; we'll start with the two that activists are trying to get on the ballot this year:

• Ohio (2023): The Ohio Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative would establish that the government has no voice in residents' reproductive decisions.
  
  
• Pennsylvania (2023): The Pennsylvania No State Constitutional Right to Abortion Amendment would do the polar opposite of the Ohio bill, and would amend the state Constitution to decree that residents have no right to abortions.
  
  
• Florida (2024): The Florida Right to Life of Preborn Individual Initiative would change the Florida Constitution to include this: "The right to life of the preborn individual is God-given, thus unalienable and recognized accordingly. Therefore, it shall not be infringed at any stage of development."
  
  
• Hawaii (2024): The Hawaii Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment would guarantee residents the right to both abortions and contraceptives.
  
  
• Iowa (2024): The Iowa No State Constitutional Right to Abortion Amendment would add this text to the state Constitution: "To defend and protect unborn children, we the people of the State of Iowa declare that this Constitution does not recognize, grant, or secure a right to abortion or require the public funding of abortion."
  
  
• Maryland (2024): The Maryland Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment would amend the state constitution to guarantee the right of reproductive freedom, including the right to have an abortion.
  
  
• New York (2024): The New York Equal Protection of Law Amendment would add "people who have had an abortion" to the list of protected classes in the state.
  
  
• South Dakota (2024): The South Dakota Right to Abortion Amendment would guarantee the right to an abortion in the first two trimesters, and thereafter only in the event that the mother's life is threatened.

Thus far, only the Maryland and New York initiatives have qualified to appear on the state's ballot, but the others are all close to making the cut. There have also been efforts in Nevada, Oklahoma and Washington that came up short, but are expected to be renewed. There's also plenty of time for citizens in other initiative/referendum states to get something going.

In 2022, there were a total of six states that voted on abortion-related ballot initiatives, and the pro-choice position won all six, even in red states like Kansas and Montana. The evidence thus suggests, at least tentatively, that such initiatives work to the benefit of the Democrats by motivating their voters to get to the polls. There are some pretty swingy states on the list above, where 2-3% more Democratic voters showing up on Election Day could make a big difference. So, this is something we'll be watching very closely. (Z)