Dem
51
GOP
49
Democrats are undoubtedly thrilled to control the whole ballgame in Wisconsin now. But every action has an equal and opposite reaction, it would seem, because they effectively lost control of the ballgame in North Carolina yesterday.
At the outset of this week, the only obstacle to Republican plans in the Tar Heel state was Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC). The GOP controls the state Supreme Court and it controls both chambers of the state legislature. Cooper has veto power, of course, and has vetoed much legislation that was sent to his desk. The legislature is empowered to override vetoes, but the Republicans were one vote short of a supermajority in the state House.
Not anymore, though. Reader A.R. in Chapel Hill, NC, alerts us to the news that state Rep. Tricia Cotham, who is currently a Democrat, is going to become a Republican. And so, the red team will be in a position to override vetoes without needing to flip any Democratic votes.
Cotham's district is pretty blue; she won election by 20 points last year. It's possible this is a matter of conscience, and she's decided she needs to be true to her real political beliefs, career be damned. However, most politicians do not operate this way. So, we are inclined to suspect that she foresees changes to her district coming when North Carolina redraws its maps (yet again), and that she wants to get out ahead of the reddening of her constituency. That's just a guess, though.
And as long as we are on the subject of guesses, there has been much speculation in North Carolina that the Republican legislature would write abortion restrictions into the state budget, making it much harder for Cooper to exercise his veto. Now, the apostasy of Cotham has A.R. (again, the reader who sent this item in) speculating that the Republicans knew this was coming, and therefore they knew they could get a straight abortion bill passed into law without needing additional trickery.
All of this said, nothing is quite a done deal yet. Cotham hasn't yet re-registered or left the Democratic caucus, and we suppose it's possible she could be bluffing in exchange for (barbecued?) pork. Not terribly likely, but at least possible. Meanwhile, when a party has zero margin of error, it can be hard to get things done. In particular, we could imagine Republicans in swing districts not wanting to open themselves up in 2024 to the charge: "But for your vote, [fill in bad consequence of an abortion ban] would not have happened." (Z)