Apr.04

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Today's the Day

Sometime today, Donald Trump will become the first-ever U.S. president to be charged with a felony. And, right around that time, we will also find out exactly what his alleged crimes are. So, it's a pretty big day.

There are all kinds of storylines swirling around right now; it's most readable if we just do a rundown, rather than trying to mash them together. So:

• The Cat's Out of the Bag?: Yahoo! (of all outlets) broke the news yesterday that the indictment contains 34 counts, they're all Class E felonies, and they all involve falsification of business records.
  
  Assuming this is correct, there are a couple of useful things to know. First, a Class E felony is the least serious type of felony in New York. Such felonies can result in a jail sentence of up to 4 years, though it is not common for first-time defendants to actually be sent to the clink. Although if a person gets popped for 34 such felonies, it certainly could change the normal operating procedure.
  
  The second thing to know is that falsification of business records can also be charged as a misdemeanor. If DA Alvin Bragg is charging felonies, that implies that an underlying crime took place. Presumably that crime would be election fraud. As we have noted, federal election fraud is a crime that Bragg, who is not a federal officeholder, probably cannot prosecute. However, if he proves the fraud in order to make his overall case, that would certainly set the pins up for the feds to knock down, should they want to pursue it.
  
  
• A Media Frenzy Yesterday....: Yesterday, Trump got in his limousine and went to the airport. Then, he got in his plane and flew to New York. Then, he got in a different limousine and went to Trump Tower. So, he's definitely planning to show up in court today, and not to dare Alvin Bragg to come get him. Undoubtedly, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is relieved.
  
  The Trump indictment is big news, and so many news outlets covered each step of the journey, second-by-second. It was not unlike the O.J. Simpson car chase. Several Fox personalities, most notably Greg Gutfeld, slammed the media for their "obsessive" coverage of the trip. Of course, one of the outlets that had wall-to-wall coverage was... Fox. Guess Gutfeld doesn't watch the channel, either; who knew we had something in common with him?
  
  
• ...But Don't Go Looking for Arraignment Footage Today: Undoubtedly, if "Trump rides in limousine" is worthy of multiple hours of coverage, then the media is going to go absolutely nuts today. The only problem is that, beyond crowd shots, they may not have much to film. Trump's lawyers have already secured numerous concessions: no cameras in the courtroom, no handcuffs and no public release of his mug shots. This would seem to support our supposition that Trump is much more concerned about maintaining his public image than he is about coming up with some footage that might be used to goose fundraising. The only thing that will be allowed today, when it comes to the courtroom, is a few photographs. And during the trial, there will be no video, either. Under New York law, a judge can allow cameras for some portions of the process, at their discretion, but not while testimony is being given.
  
  
• Lawyering Up: Rolling Stone reported yesterday that the people in Donald Trump's inner circle think that lawyer Joe Tacopina is "dumb" and "a loudmouth." That is our assessment, too.
  
  Trump, of course, has an affinity for dumb loudmouths, for... some reason. So, Tacopina will undoubtedly continue as the former president's TV lawyer, going onto Fox and other channels to bloviate about things. But even Trump isn't willing to place his fate in the hands of another Michael Cohen-Rudy Giuliani type. And so yesterday, he retained Todd Blanche, a former federal prosecutor and, until recently, a partner at a white-shoe law firm, to be his actual lawyer. Blanche's former firm is Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, which really sounds more like it belongs in a Dickens novel. Perhaps that makes sense, since they've been in business since 1792. In any case, the firm did not want its reputation sullied by association with Trump, so they insisted that Blanche resign in order to represent the former president. And Blanche did. The size of his retainer has not been leaked yet, but our guess is that it's at least six Stormy Danielses.
  
  
• America Approves...: ABC/Ipsos have run a poll asking Americans if they approve of the Trump indictment; 45% said "yes" and 32% said "no." CNN/SSRS also ran a poll, and asked the same question; in this case, 60% said "yes" and 40% said "no." The primary difference between the two sets of results is that the former poll allowed respondents to say "I don't know" (23%) and the latter did not.
  
  It should be noted that all of these people are approving of the indictments without actually know what's in them yet. Clearly, their responses are rooted in their disdain for Trump. He could be indicted for littering, jaywalking or crimes against fashion, and presumably 45%-60% of Americans would approve. That said, forcing people to take a position directed many more of them into the pro-indictment camp than the anti-indictment camp. So, once the indictments are unsealed, and people have an actual basis for an opinion, the numbers figure to look more like the ones from CNN and less like the ones from ABC.
  
  
• ...But What Does Randy Rainbow Think? If there is anyone who knows that you have to strike while the iron is hot, it's parodist and comedian Randy Rainbow. He's already produced a song parody inspired by the Trump indictment, and sung to the tune of "Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy" by the Andrews Sisters. As you might guess, Rainbow plays all three sisters in the video. Many, many readers sent it to us; if it holds your interest:
  
  
  
  There are more songs coming up later in this posting, but we can assure you, it's all downhill from here musically.

Trump's current plan, once he has taken care of business in New York, is to hightail it back to Mar-a-Lago and to make a speech. Undoubtedly, the phrase "witch hunt" is set to feature prominently. However, it is well within the realm of possibility that Judge Juan Merchan will impose a gag order, which would definitely complicate the speech. If the Judge does do that, it will be very interesting to see if Trump has the discipline to cancel his planned remarks. And if Trump doesn't cancel, it will be absolutely riveting to see him try to whip the base up into a frenzy without getting himself busted for contempt of court. That would definitely be popcorn time. (Z)