Dem
51
GOP
49
The most important election of 2023 will be held tomorrow in Wisconsin. It is the race for the state Supreme Court. Currently there are three Democrats and three Republicans on the court. Whoever wins tomorrow will tip the balance in this key swing state. The fate of abortion, gerrymandering, and much more is at stake. The race has already become the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, with spending way north of $45 million. Much of the spending has come from Republican billionaires partial to Kelly.
The candidates are Democrat Janet Protasiewicz, a Milwaukee judge, and Daniel Kelly, a former state Supreme Court justice who lost an election in 2020 to now-Justice Jill Karofsky and wants his old job back. Each of the candidates has been calling the other one an extremist and a liar. At their debate, they refused to shake hands. It is really nasty. Early voting has been going on for a couple of weeks, but tomorrow the final votes will be cast. Local Democratic and Republican Party workers have been out in the field for weeks knocking on doors, running local and Internet ads, and more. Now it is all about getting out the vote.
With early voting going on for weeks, the indictment of Donald Trump obviously won't play a role with the votes already cast. Will it play a role tomorrow? At least some observers think it will not. The issues are local. Should the 1849 law banning abortions be upheld? Does gerrymandering violate the Wisconsin Constitution? Trump's indictment doesn't really speak to these issues. Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll, thinks the effect of the indictment could get both Trump's supporters and his opponents to the polls but doesn't think this will play a major role.
There has been no public polling of the race and history isn't much of a guide. In 2019, liberal judge Lisa Neubauer lost to now-Justice Brian Hagedorn by fewer than 6,000 votes. In 2020, Karofsky beat Kelly by a solid 55%-45%. In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden got 50.3% to Donald Trump's 49.7%. In round one of this year's Supreme Court race, the "Democratic" candidates got 53.8% to the "Republican" candidates' 46.2%. This suggests that Protasiewicz might have a slight edge, but turnout will be crucial and anything is possible. (V)