Dem
51
GOP
49
Figuring out how the indictment (and, probably soon, indictments) will play out is going to be tough. Nevertheless, the usually astute Ronald Brownstein has taken a stab at it. Brownstein first notes that in recent weeks, Trump has increased his lead in the primary polls over Ron DeSantis. Then he notes that suburban swing voters, who powered the Democrats in 2018, 2020, and 2022, are not going to love The Donald more because he has been indicted. Rather the reverse. Or put differently, the indictments could help Trump in the primaries but hurt him in the general election. That conundrum is not going away any time soon.
And if Georgia and the feds also bring charges, the problem will only get worse. What will the public think if on some Monday in January 2024 he is campaigning in Iowa, on Tuesday he is in court in New York, on Wednesday he is campaigning in New Hampshire, and on Thursday he is in court in Georgia? The side-by-side images probably aren't going to be helpful except maybe with his hard-core base, whose votes are already locked in.
As this all plays out, what are Trump's rivals going to say? So far they are supporting him, but "I support Donald Trump, so please vote for me" doesn't have a great ring about it. At some point, they are all going to have to thread the needle and say that yes, Trump is being unfairly prosecuted, but you shouldn't feel sorry for him and vote for him in order to support him. How does one express this properly? It's going to be extremely difficult. But to get any traction, they are going to have to figure it out.
One possible approach might be just to ignore Trump and campaign on the issues alone. Ron DeSantis could run on how Florida is where woke goes to die (along with half the people). Nikki Haley could run on her foreign policy experience. Then she would be fighting head-on with Mike Pompeo, who could run on exactly the same thing. Mike Pence could run on how he loves Jesus so much, he won't have dinner alone with any woman not his wife. Just ignore Trump and pitch yourself. Could it work? Maybe not, but all of them have to do something. Figuring it out won't be easy. The indictment only made this worse. (V)