Dem
51
GOP
49
There are a number of things that Donald Trump is quite good at, like an ability to make up insulting nicknames for his rivals that many third graders would die for. One of his other specialities is dragging out legal proceedings almost forever. He has perfected this skill in countless civil trials. Now that spring training is over, he is going to try it out in the big leagues—a criminal trial. Whether it will work as well remains to be seen. Endless delays can wear out an opponent in a civil case and can cause them to spend so much money on lawyers that they give up. Can Trump cause Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg to throw in the towel because it is taking too long? We kinda doubt it. Also, in a criminal case, judges have less tolerance for obvious shenanigans than in a civil dispute between two parties.
Catherine Christian, who worked in the Manhattan DA's office for 30 years, predicts that Trump's lawyers will file every motion that is allowed and then some. They will try to move the trial outside New York City. They will try to disqualify the judge and prosecutor. They will try to move the case to federal court. They will try to get felony charges reduced to misdemeanors. They will argue that the grand jury made a mistake and the charges are not valid. They will argue that the statute of limitations has expired. They will argue about that Trump is entitled to a jury of his peers (i.e., former presidents, although on second thought, 75% of the pool consists of Democrats, at least for now). They will argue about security arrangements during the trial. They will lose all of them and them appeal each one up to the New York State Court of Appeals, when possible. And finally, when all of the motions have failed and a year or more has gone by, they will file for dismissal because their client did not get a speedy trial as required by the Constitution.
The judge expected to handle the case is Juan Merchan. He was born in Colombia and moved to the U.S. with his family when he was 6. By 9, he was delivering groceries to earn money for his family. He went to Baruch College and then Hofstra Law School. He worked in a local DA's office for 12 years before Michael Bloomberg appointed him to the Bronx Family Court in 2006. In 2009, he became an acting justice on the state Supreme Court, which in New York is a low-level court. So all in all, he has been a judge for 17 years. He has a reputation as a smart, even-tempered, serious judge with a solid knowledge of the law. If Trump's lawyer's try to stall and stall and stall, he is going to smell a rat and just deny all their motions quickly.
It is impossible to predict how long Trump's lawyers can keep making motions to delay before Merchan says: "Enough." The recent trial of the Trump Organization took 16 months from indictment to the start of the trial. The Iowa caucuses are 10 months away. Will Merchan take that into account? That's up to him, but if he gets the feeling that all the motions are being made in bad faith, he could decide to deny each one very fast.
Another unknown is whether Merchan will issue a gag order and tell both Trump and Bragg not to discuss the case in public in any way. If he does and Bragg obeys the order but Trump keeps sounding off about the case and attacking the judge on his boutique social media site, what happens then? The first time Trump violates the gag order, Merchan will probably haul him into court and tell him that if he does it again, there will be real consequences. Then what happens if Trump keeps violating the order? Will Merchan order Trump to post millions of dollars in bail to be forfeited if he violates the order again? If Trump still keeps at it, will Merchan revoke bail and put Trump in jail on a repeat violation?
What no one really knows is what happens if Trump gets the start of the trial delayed until, say, Jan. 2024, and he is on trial the day of the Iowa caucuses and continues to be on trial during the New Hampshire primary. Will Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and the other candidates say: "The Republican Party can't take the risk that our nominee is in jail during the campaign, so vote for someone else, for example, me"? If you were hoping for many Trump-free days on our site this year, we're probably going to disappoint you. Sorry in advance. (V)