Senate page     Dec. 08

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Dem pickups: PA
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Takeaways from Georgia

In the end, Georgia wasn't all that close. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) won by almost 3 points. There were plenty of takeaway pieces. Let's take a look at them.

The New York Times The Washington Post Politico CNN The Hill Yahoo!

The big themes seem to be how Trump took yet another hit and how the Democrats will have it a bit easier in 2023 in the Senate. But, of course, that is limited consolation for losing the House.

We also looked for takeaways from Fox. Wednesday morning, the Fox site had the Georgia race down in he corner:

Fox News home page, with Senate race story buried at the bottom

For Fox, the big stories yesterday were the firing of the Loudoun County school superintendent, why football player Andrew Luck quit the NFL, and that Elon Musk fired one of his lawyers. Only then do we get to Georgia. The actual story was low-key and just stated the basic facts. Trump was mentioned only once, in a sentence saying that he had encouraged Walker to run. (V)

Why Did Walker Lose?

A Politico analysis of why Herschel Walker lost to Raphael Warnock is interesting. It is based on interviews with insiders. Walker knew that he knew nothing about politics—unless he is so dumb that he didn't know he knew nothing. What he should have done is talk to Donald Trump—or better yet, Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA)—about who to hire as a campaign manager and then left the rest to the campaign manager. He should have just shown up at rallies, smiling, holding a football, and reading a few remarks from a printed script. The last thing he should have done is give interviews and get involved in the details of campaigning, something about which he knows nothing.

One huge problem is that Walker and his wife, Julie Blanchard Walker, micromanaged the campaign. They went over the details of every campaign stop ad nauseum. They also wanted to determine where they campaigned, preferring deep blue areas Walker could never win. Walker's wife thought they could win 50% of Black voters. That would be bat guano crazy even if he were running against a white guy, but against a Black preacher who is Martin Luther King's successor at the Ebenezer Baptist Church, it is beyond inconceivable. But she was obsessed with the idea and wouldn't let go of it.

Walker also botched some events. He went to a tailgate before a University of Georgia football game but just wandered around aimlessly. The next day he went to a bar where some Green Bay Packers fans were gathered and offered to take photos with them. Only 20 people were interested. He also didn't use his 1-million-follower Twitter account for campaigning.

His memory wasn't very good. Maybe he played too much football years ago and got bumped on the head a few times. For Fox interviews, he was often paired with another Republican senator so someone would remind the viewers to contribute to his campaign. That's even easier than remembering which three cabinet departments you want to abolish.

Walker had nothing planned around Thanksgiving. When early voting opened, for 5 critical days, Walker was nowhere to be seen. He went to a funeral, a birthday party, and Texas for some fundraising. There was constant friction between him and his family on one side and his staff on the other. The staff had no cohesion.

Walker's wife also blundered in other ways. When news broke about the time Walker paid a girlfriend to get an abortion, his team wanted to work on damage control, but she wanted to focus on responding to Warnock's tweet about how Walker's assistant football coach in high school had endorsed Warnock.

On the stump, Walker was a terrible speaker, at one point talking about the respective benefits of being a vampire vs. a werewolf. He was mocked mercilessly for that. Just reading a speech prepared by his speechwriter would have been enough, but he didn't like that. He also wasn't nearly as good as Warnock at raising money. If he had more money, he could have waged an air war instead of a ground war, which he was terrible at. That he managed to get 48.6% of the vote is simply due to that little (R) after his name.

In case you are interested how the election went geographically, here is the map of the runoff by county.

Runoff in Georgia by county

As you can see, most of Warnock's votes came from the six biggest cities in Georgia and their suburbs plus eight heavily Black counties south of Columbus. These counties are part of the Black Belt that runs from North Carolina to Arkansas and Louisiana. The soil there is extremely fertile due to it being an ancient shoreline 66 to 145 million years ago. The rich soil made growing cotton there very profitable, which resulted in the importation of millions of Black slaves from Africa to work in the cotton fields. Their descendants now form majorities in many counties in the Belt, as shown below:

Map of Black Belt counties

If you want more on how the vote shifted between the general election and the runoff, look here Briefly, turnout was lower than for the general election by about 400,000 votes. However, Warnock's total dropped by 133,000 votes and Walker's total dropped by 191,000 votes. So it appears that more of Walker's supporters stayed home than did Warnock's.

Also, urban areas were 4.0 points more Democratic than in the general election, suburban areas were 2.4 points more Democratic, and rural areas were 0.7 points more Democratic (i.e., less Republican). (V)

The Runoff Polls Did Quite Well

We collected nine nonpartisan polls for the Georgia runoff, as follows:

Warnock Walker Start End Pollster
51% 48% Dec 04 Dec 04 InsiderAdvantage
49% 47% Nov 30 Nov 30 Patriot Polling
50% 47% Nov 28 Nov 30 SurveyUSA
51% 49% Nov 28 Nov 30 Emerson Coll.
52% 48% Nov 25 Nov 29 SSRS
47% 48% Nov 26 Nov 27 Phillips Academy
50% 50% Nov 23 Nov 26 Frederick Polls
51% 46% Nov 18 Nov 28 U. Mass, Lowell
51% 47% Nov 11 Nov 17 Fabrizio+Impact
50.2% 47.8%     Average

The average of the nine polls put Warnock ahead by 2.4 points. He actually won by 2.8 points. Since the margin of error of most polls is about 3-4 points, we conclude that the pollsters did a good job this time. So maybe when Donald Trump is not personally on the ballot, the polls do fine. (V)

Supreme Court Tackles the Supreme Question: Democracy

The North Carolina state legislature drew an exceedingly gerrymandered congressional map in 2020. It gave the Republicans 10 seats to the Democrats' 4, even though the partisan split in the state is close to 50-50. The Democrats sued and won in the trial court but that verdict was reversed by the state Supreme Court. Now the case is with the U.S. Supreme Court.

The legislature's argument is based on Art. 1, Sec. 4, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution, which reads:

The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.

The legislature is arguing that this clause gives the legislature alone the power to draw the maps and the courts must butt out. In the legislature's view, they have absolute power to run elections and the courts have no authority to review their decisions. In this view, it would be legal for a legislature to say that only straight white Christian men who own real estate assessed at $1 million or more can vote and there is nothing the courts can do about it. This is democratic because if the people don't like what the legislators are doing, the people who are allowed to vote can replace them. Or Congress can overrule them. They call this the "Independent State Legislature (ISL) theory." The Supreme Court case is called Moore v. Harper. Yesterday the Court held the oral hearing on the case.

The questions went on for over 3 hours, even longer than the case about whether Lorie Smith can refuse to design websites for gay couples. You can't always tell from the questions how justices will vote. Sometimes they ask probing questions just to see how the lawyers will react. But from the questions, it appears that Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch are fine with the ISL theory. If James Madison meant, for example, that the legislature could pass laws to run elections (which would give the governor veto power), he should have written that down. He didn't, so the governor is out of the loop here. It is hard to imagine that is what he had in mind because just about everything else the legislature does is by passing laws—which the governor can veto. This was probably just a poor choice of words than an intentional move to veto the governor. The three Democratic appointees were aggressively hostile to the ISL theory and hammered the legislature's lawyer.

So it may come down to Justices John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. They seem to be looking for a compromise in which the state Supreme Courts would generally have the last word, but in rare cases the federal courts would get involved. That is a far cry from "the courts have no business reviewing what the legislatures do."

A lawyer for the NC legislature, David Thompson, made it clear that he believes the state Supreme Court has no authority to tell the legislature to draw a new map simply because it is a partisan gerrymander that violates the state Constitution. Elena Kagan noted that the legislature is trying to get rid of the checks and balances in the Constitution and make itself supreme. Samuel Alito didn't like the idea of state judges assessing constitutionality because they are elected. And nobody trusts folks who are elected. Only folks with lifetime appointments (like himself) can be trusted.

Harper is the second election law case the Supreme Court has taken up this term. In October, it took up an Alabama case about whether maps can be gerrymandered to dilute the power of racial minorities. (V)

DeSantis Is Selling Tickets to His Inauguration for Up to $1 Million

Florida governors may not serve three consecutive terms, so Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) can't run in 2026. He could run in 2030, but that is awfully far down the road. So he doesn't need to be collecting campaign donations for a third term yet, certainly not now. But the governor is selling tickets to his inauguration as governor in January with packages ranging from $50,000 to $1 million. Why would he need so much money now if he can't run for governor again until 2030? Could he have other plans?

Actually, the money isn't for his campaign. It is for the Florida Republican Party. But once he declares he is running for president, expected in the late spring or early summer, he won't be allowed to raise big money for the state party, so this is probably his parting shot.

In addition, he wants to show the world—and one Donald J. Trump in particular—that he is capable of raising vast sums of money. And if he pulls in, say, $50 million, that fundraising prowess might impress Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), the Mikes Pence & Pompeo, and Nikki Haley, just in case they get some funny ideas about running for president one of these days.

What $1 million gets you, in case you were considering ponying up, is a nice seat up front at the inaugural, some tickets to the inaugural ball, and a photo op with the governor. Of course, if your company has (or wants) some business with the state, you get a few minutes to make your pitch as well. There aren't as many events as in 2019. DeSantis doesn't actually like fancy balls and glad handing, but he has to do a certain amount to please the donors.

Actually, he is more of an intellectual, which is to be expected from a guy with degrees from Yale and Harvard Law. He even wrote a book due out in February. It called The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival. It is all about governing. And not necessarily about governing a state. Actually, it is not really about governing. It is about feeding red meat to the base, with a focus on immigration, woke corporations, and the partisan legacy media. One publisher offered him a $2 million advance, but he backed out when he discovered the publisher's parent company was too woke for his taste. No doubt the final deal was in the seven figures, though. Presidential candidates frequently write books to explain their views. It is not know if DeSantis personally wrote the book or had a ghostwriter. But given his Yale-Harvard background, he is probably capable of writing a book, assuming he had the time. Penn grads, by contrast, are more of a crapshoot on that front. (V)

Classified Documents Found in Trump's Storage Unit

In recent weeks, outside teams have been looking to see if Donald Trump had even more classified documents stashed away somewhere in violation of a court order to turn them all over to the government. Sure enough, at least two more classified items turned up in a storage unit in West Palm Beach that Trump used. It was stored along with clothes, swords, boxes, gifts and other items.

One of Trump's lawyers, Christopher Kise, had advocated for hiring an outside team to search all of Trump's properties and storage units months ago, but Trump rebuffed him and assigned him to a different one of his many legal cases.

No one (probably not even Trump) knows if there are more classified documents stored somewhere else. Jay Bratt, chief of counterintelligence at the DoJ, said the Department was concerned that the government may still not have all its property back. Trump has blindsided even his own lawyers. One of them, Christina Bobb, signed a document last summer, stating that all classified documents had been returned. She is now potentially on the hook for perjury. When Trump's lawyers need their own lawyers, that's not a good sign. (V)

Can Trump Be Stopped?

At this point everything about the 2024 presidential race is speculation. So let's speculate. Jonathan V. Last, over at The Bulwark (a site run by never-Trump Republicans), has some interesting speculations on the matter. He starts out by citing tweets from never-Trumper Bill Kristol sent out on Election Day. They give a six-point plan for getting rid of Donald Trump:

  1. Tonight Walker loses 53%-47%
  2. Tomorrow McConnell says Trump can't be the 2024 nominee
  3. In 2 weeks the Jan. 6 Committee Report
  4. Early 2023: Trump indicted
  5. Spring 2023: Trump fading, Biden announces he won't run
  6. The future: a new generation of leaders

Kristol was close on the first two. Warnock got 51%, not 53%, but he did win. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has already said that he doesn't think Trump shouldn't run in 2024. Kristol probably got the third one and likely the fourth one right as well. As far as Biden throwing in the towel and then Trump fading into the background, it seems very unlikely.

Last dismisses the above as just "happy talk." Then he goes on about what it would take to end Trump's dominance of the Republican Party. He thinks it can't be anti-Trump because the base won't accept that. It certainly won't be Compassionate Conservatism. It needs to be more populist than Trump, not less. He says this because he believes the Republican leaders aren't actually leaders. McConnell can probably sway a few big donors, but he has no influence at all with the rank and file voters. Speaker Wannabe Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has even less. Neither of these have any say over who the GOP nominee will be. Trump will live or die by the polls. If he stays around 40%, he'll be tough to beat. The daily news cycle deals with things like the debt ceiling, but his voters don't give a hoot about any of it.

Trump has some major advantages. First, he is very skilled at fighting Republicans. In 2016, he slaughtered over a dozen of the finest the Republican Party had to offer. Trump not only is an expert at triggering the libs, which the base just eats up, but he is also great at taking down RINOs, which the base loves even more.

Second, the base wants the craziest guy around. Who can out-crazy Trump? DeSantis can't do that. In fact, DeSantis is no good at all at RINO hunting. If DeSantis starts to get real traction, the base will think that is due to McConnell and the other RINOs. They will rebel.

The media are full of stories about Trump having dinner with a couple of antisemites and all-around bigots. What did DeSantis say about that? Nothing. If he had criticized Trump, that would put him on the same side as the Democrats, The New York Times, and CNN. The base would hate him for it.

So Last thinks DeSantis can get the support of the big donors and the RINOs in the GOP leadership, just not the rank-and-file voters. However, he is not totally pessimistic. He thinks there is one person who might be able to stop Trump: Father Time. Trump is 76, in poor condition, and eats mostly junk food. Where has he been since his announcement on Nov. 15, more than 3 weeks ago? Normally after an announcement, candidates are holding rallies, giving interviews, paling around with celebrities, and in Trump's case, doing grip-and-grins with Republican toadies too scared to tell him they think he is a dottering old fool. Elon Musk invited him back on Twitter but so far he hasn't shown up, possibly because he is afraid that would give Musk leverage over him and he is too weak to fight back. He hasn't even left Florida since the announcement. Dominating a cult takes energy and maybe Trump doesn't have so much anymore. Low-energy Donald this time? Will he have to change his slogan from "MAGA" to "Donald!"? Maybe he simply won't be up to defending himself in half a dozen lawsuits and criminal cases, feeding red meat to the base daily, traveling all over the country holding rallies while fending off the DeSantises, Cruzes, and Pences biting his ankles.

Republicans keep calling the president "Sleepy Joe." But that kind of works in his favor. Nobody expects him to be out there on camera playing racquetball with his grandkids. He can conduct a Rose Garden campaign and give a gentle speech here and there and be seen as presidential. Trump has to be seen running around and being very active and maybe he just isn't up to that anymore. (V)

Are Young Governors the Future of the Democratic Party?

A future president might have been in a New Orleans hotel ballroom last Saturday. That's where and when the Democratic Governors Association met. Democrats did very well in the gubernatorial battles, holding all but one of their incumbents (Steve Sisolak lost in Nevada), holding all their open seats, and flipping three Republican open seats. Moreover, many of them are quite young. Some of them undoubtedly have a big future in national politics. Below is a list of all the Democratic governors once the new class is sworn in come January. An asterisk indictates an incumbent who was reelected. The last column shows whether the governor was up for (re)election last month. The list is sorted on age.

State Governor(-elect) Age 2022?
Maryland Wes Moore 44 Yes
Kentucky Andy Beshear 45 No
Colorado Jared Polis* 47 Yes
Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro 49 Yes
Massachusetts Maura Healey 51 Yes
Michigan Gretchen Whitmer* 51 Yes
Arizona Katie Hobbs 52 Yes
Hawaii Josh Green* 52 Yes
California Gavin Newsom* 55 Yes
Louisiana John Bel Edwards 56 No
Oregon Tina Kotek 56 Yes
Illinois J.B. Pritzker* 57 Yes
Minnesota Tim Walz* 58 Yes
New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham* 63 Yes
New York Kathy Hochul* 64 Yes
New Jersey Phil Murphy 65 No
North Carolina Roy Cooper 65 No
Delaware John Carney 66 No
Connecticut Ned Lamont* 68 Yes
Washington Jay Inslee 71 No
Rhode Island Daniel McKee* 71 Yes
Wisconsin Tony Evers* 71 Yes
Kansas Laura Kelly 72 Yes
Maine Janet Mills 74 Yes

The first thing to note is that four of the governors are under 50 and 13 are under 60. If Joe Biden decides not to run after all and the Democrats want to go for a new generation, there is plenty of material in the governors' mansions. And in 2028, some of them might try for a big promotion.

The group is quite diverse. Eight are women. Three are gay (Healey, Kotek, and Polis). One is Black (Moore). One is Jewish (Shapiro). None are gay Black Jews, however. Of the 24 Democratic governors, only 11 are straight white Christian men. That's probably an all-time low for either party. Democrats are clearly betting on a young, diverse next generation.

Some of the newcomers won by historic margins. Shapiro was the first gubernatorial candidate in the state's history to clear 3 million votes. Moore won by a historic margin, even for blue Maryland. He's the son of immigrants and won the veterans' vote, which is rare for any Democrat. (V)

A December to Rhymember, Part V: Herschel, We Hardly Knew Ye

Herschel Walker's expiry will soon be upon us, but it would seem he's not there yet. So, let's follow up yesterday's entry with some more verse about the now-former U.S. Senate candidate. Taking the lead with a haiku is S.S. in Santa Monica, CA:

Full moon in Georgia
That howling on the mountain?
Senator Werewolf.

And a limerick from J.K. in Charleston, WV:

We know that he paid for abortion
And coped using verbal contortion
He dreamt about winning
In spite of his sinning
But the numbers were out of proportion

And finally, courtesy of J.D.Q. in New York City, New York:

The voters of Georgia decided
That Walker was too-many sided.
The midterms are done, and democracy won
In a nation so closely divided.

J.D.Q.knows something of humorous political verse, having co-written, in the spirit of Pride and Prejudice and Vampires, a play called MacTrump If you ever wondered what Macbeth looks like when re-imagined as a starring vehicle for the 45th president, well, Christmas has just come early for you.

As always, here is the e-mail address for submissions. (Z)


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