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Republicans Are Quieter About the Mar-a-Lago Search Now

After Donald Trump announced the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, the right-wing media went berserk,screaming about abuse of power and demanding the affidavit on which the search warrant was based. On Friday, a redacted version of the affidavit was released. Even with the redactions, it was clear that it took 7 months of painful negotiations to get Trump to return any documents at all. The FBI didn't just barge in. The National Archives had pleaded with Trump for months to return documents that he was unlawfully holding and he steadfastfully refused. Eventually, the Archives called the FBI in, since Trump refused to budge. The affidavit also noted that Trump's lawyer said there were no secure locations anywhere at Mar-a-Lago—even though federal law requires classified documents to be located at secure locations. After the documents were seized, the National Archives determined that 67 were confidential, 92 were secret, and 15 were top secret.

Suddenly, the noise has died down, especially from the usual suspects. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) was suddenly interested in the border invasion. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) started tweeting about the aniversary of a suicide bombing that killed U.S. service members in Kabul. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) was mostly interested in an interview with Mark Zuckerberg. Earlier in the week they were yelling the loudest. Now it is just crickets.

But wait, it's even worse. On Friday, Karl Rove (yes, that Karl Rove) went on Fox News and basically said Trump had committed a federal felony. He asked: "Why he was holding on to these materials when he had no legal authority to do so under the Presidential Records Act is beyond me." We doubt it was beyond Rove. He knows very well Trump could either have been planning to blackmail the U.S. government if they came for him or was intending to sell the top secret documents to the highest bidder. But saying that out loud would have resulted in a lawsuit for slander, so he didn't go that far.

Alan Dershowitz, Trump's former attorney, said that there was enough evidence already to indict Trump but he didn't think the Dept. of Justice would do it.

What is worth keeping in mind is how an ordinary person who took one government document—and not even a top secret one—and leaked it would be treated. She would get five years in prison. This actually happened to a poorly named woman called Reality Winner, who stole a report about Russian interference in the 2016 election and leaked it to an online news outlet. Chelsea Manning got 35 years in prison for taking classified documents. Julian Assange and Edward Snowden have been indicted for doing so but haven't been tried because they skipped the country. Trump had 184 classified documents. It not known if he gave or sold copies to anyone, but clearly when someone takes even one classified document home, that is a very serious crime. That's doubly true if it is leaked, but just taking it is also a serious crime. (V)

Biden Is Up More in New Polls

Joe Biden seems to be climbing in the polls. Last Thursday, we had an item about an Ipsos poll that had his approval rating up 5 points to 41%. His climb out of the dumpster is continuing. An Emerson College poll has his approval at 42%. A new Morning Consult poll puts his approval now at 43%. A new Gallup poll sees Morning Consult's 43% and raises one, to 44%.

While Biden is still 10 points or so under water, this is a huge improvement from the 33%/57% he was getting earlier this year. And the timing is good. The fall campaigns are about to start and lots of stories about how Biden is rising in the polls definitely will help the Democrats. As we have pointed out before, the direction things are moving is typically more important that the current value of whatever variable is being measured. If all the stories are "Biden is getting more popular" or "gas prices are dropping" that tends to have a bigger effect than stories with the actual numbers.

The Emerson poll also asked about Biden vs. Trump in 2024. It has Biden beating Donald Trump 43% to 42%. Don't take that too seriously.

Biden is starting to hit the campaign trail, which will probably help him more. For example, on Sept. 9, he is going to travel to Ohio to take part in the groundbreaking of a new Intel semiconductor fabrication plant that will make America less dependent on China for chips and will create thousands of jobs in the process, both during construction and after it starts running. It wouldn't surprise us if Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) were to show up and point out that the new $100 billion factory was made possible in part by the CHIPS Act, which he voted for in the House and which most Republicans opposed. He might even ask why Republicans hate the idea of creating jobs in America. Who knows? (V)

Democrats Have Read the Tea Leaves

Democrats have taken notice of the primary elections in increasingly many states that show abortion is a winning issue. They have also noticed that red states are practically tripping over each other to see which ones can ban the most abortions the fastest. The result: Even moderate candidates are going full abortion now. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), a moderate in a D+1 district, has started running this ad:



If you don't want to watch it, all it talks about is abortion and her opponent wanting to ban it in all cases.

It has been two months since Dobbs now, so what does the abortion map look like at the moment? Politico has put together a map giving the current state of play. Here it is:

Map showing status of abortion in the U.S.; it's legal in the solid blue states, illegal in most Southern states plus many of the mountain states, illegal after 6 weeks in Ohio and Georgia, illegal after 15 weeks in Florida, and up in the air in Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Iowa, Michigan, West Virginia and South Carolina

As you can see from the map, abortion is illegal from the moment of conception in 12 states already, with more on the way. Currently, Florida is the most "liberal" state in the South on the matter, but that probably won't last with the Generalissimo running the show. For women in the deep South, the only ways to get one are to get abortion pills by mail, which not everyone knows how to do, or to travel to Illinois or North Carolina, a trip of hundreds of miles for some people.

Abortion is illegal even in some purple states, like Wisconsin, but the results of the Kansas referendum could give supporters of reproductive choice a strategy: Put a constitutional amendment to guarantee the right to an abortion on the ballot in 2024. This would not only probably pass, but it would also probably bring many young, unengaged voters to the polls, as well. Given the Kansas results, that might even work in other deep red states. The battle lines have been drawn and the battle will still be raging long after the photo op with Vladimir Putin and Volodomyr Zelenskyy shaking hands and talking about how great peace in Ukraine is. (V)

Could the Democrats Hold the House?

If, 6 months ago, you had told any politically astute person that you thought the Democrats might be able to hold the House, the response would probably have been: "Do you also believe in the tooth fairy?" Now the response is more likely to be: "The odds are against it." What has happened since then? A lot:

As a result of the above, the Democrats' mood has gone from hopeless to hopeful. The Washington Post's lead story yesterday was entitled: "Democrats see the once unthinkable: A narrow path to keeping the House." But the House is still a game of numbers. The Democrats need to win 218 seats and there has been a lot of gerrymandering in Florida and Texas. Also in New York, but the courts struck down the New York map but not the Texas or Florida maps. In addition, reapportionment mostly helped the Republicans.

With their new enthusiasm and money, the Democrats are starting to target some Republican-held seats they previously hadn't. They are also ceasing to worry about some of their weaker districts. One Democrat told the Post: "The range has shifted. In the world we were living in before, if we ended in the 200s that was pretty good. Now it is much more that the majority is in play." Some Republican strategists now expect the Rupublicans to win, but only a single-digit majority, which would allow the Freedom Caucus to gum up the works and prevent Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from becoming speaker. Steve Elmendorf, who used to work for the House leadership staff, said: "There is a big difference between having a zero chance of success and a 30 percent chance of success." That says it all. (V)

Mark Meadows and Sidney Powell Are Subpoenaed in Georgia

Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis really means business. Her investigation into election interference in Georgia in 2020 is not a hoax. And she wants to hear from witnesses to the interference. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) might get another week or two of reprieve, but in the end, he is almost certainly going to have to testify.

And he isn't the only person close to Donald Trump who is going to have to appear before the special grand jury. Willis has also issued subpoenas for former WH chief of staff Mark Meadows, attorney Sidney Powell, and cyber researcher James Waldron.

Meadows could also end up being a target. During the Georgia recount in Nov. 2020, Meadows quietly traveled to Georgia for an unannounced visit. No doubt Willis would like to know who he talked to and what was discussed. He has an associate of arts degree from the University of South Florida and never went to law school, so he won't be able to plead attorney-client privilege, although he might try to claim executive privilege. Sidney Powell might try to argue attorney-client privilege, but that only works if Trump actually was her client. A judge might ask to see: (1) an engagement letter stating what legal work she was to perform for Trump, when she was to do it, and how much she was to bill per hour for it, (2) copies of invoices she sent Trump for the legal work she performed, and (3) proof that he paid her invoices. The mere fact that she knows Trump and she has a law degree doesn't automatically make him a client. Waldron has no conceivable way to avoid testifying, but he could plead the Fifth Amendment to every question.

The fact that the chief of staff and close confident of Trump, Meadows, is now on Willis' radar means the investigation has gotten very close to Trump himself. If Meadows' likely attempt to claim executive privilege fails, he is going to either have to flip, perjure himself, or take the Fifth over and over. He also has to worry about what Willis already knows. She already interviewed Rudy Giuliani last week. If Meadows eventually has to show up and says things that conflict with what Giuliani said, one or both of them could be in deep doodoo. Giuliani is already a target of the investigation and Meadows could easily become one as well. In addition, Trump attorneys John Eastman and Cleta Mitchell have also already testified. So has failed secretary of state candidate and Trump-endorsed Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA). So Willis already probably knows a lot and Meadows has to be careful about not being caught lying about something she already knows. (V)

Is Ticket Splitting Dead and Gone?

Back in the 1940s and 1950s, it was common to hear people say: "I vote for the best candidate, regardless of party." You don't hear that so much any more. In 2020, in every state but one with a Senate election, the party that won the presidential election also won the Senate election. Either you are a red state or a blue state. That's the choice. The only exception was Maine, where Joe Biden (D) won along with Sen. Susan Collins (R), but that was simply due to Collins' long-standing personal popularity. No other Republican could have won in Maine in 2020.

In 2022, 34 states are holding a Senate election and 36 states are holding a gubernatorial election. Does that mean there will be 34 twofers, with one party sweeping both elections in each state? In fact, almost certainly not. Quick quiz: In which state is a split ticket in 2022 a virtual certainty, with a governor of one party and a senator of the other? Read on.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has taken a close look at ticket splitting and made some interesting observations. First, the article by J. Miles Coleman looked at all the midterms since World War II. From 1946 up to and including 2006, the average number of split senator/governor tickets was 8.2 per year. If one looks at the period of 1962 to 2006, the average number of split tickets was 11.0. Starting in 2010, it dropped off sharply, as partisanship conquered everything. In the past three midterms, the number of split tickets averaged 5.7. Here are the data:

History of split tickets; it shows how many splits there have been in midterm years since World War II, with as few as one in 1946 and as many as 14 in 1990.

As you can see, the splits went both ways roughly equally. Sometimes a Democrat was elected governor and a Republican was elected senator and sometimes it was the other way around. What about 2022? What can we expect in the way of splitting? First, here is a map showing which states have both senatorial and gubernatorial races, which have only one of them, and which have neither.

Map showing states with Senate and gubernatorial races; 6 have neither, 8 are Senate-only, 10 are governor-only, and 26 have both.

As you can see, Virginia and New Jersey have neither, but both had a race for the governor's mansion last year. Montana, West Virginia, and Mississippi have no action, and not even a lot of competitive House races. In Montana and West Virginia, half of the state Senate and all of the state House is up, though, so the voters have some reason to turn out. In Mississippi, elections for the state legislature are in 2023, so 2022 looks pretty barren.

First let's look at the easy case: states where one of the top races isn't competitive. Then we only have to guess the outcome of the other one. New Hampshire is first in the nation in presidential primaries (but last in the nation in midterm primaries), so let's start there. Republicans were praying their hearts out that Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) had a burning desire to become Sen. Chris Sununu (R-NH). But God was off golfing and didn't hear their prayers. Neither did Sununu. He is virtually certain of getting two more years in Concord. As to the Senate, if far-right Trumper Don Bolduc wins the Republican primary on Sept. 13, as expected, then Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) will be able to breathe easier and we will have a split ticket.

Next door in Vermont it is crystal clear what will happen. Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) will become Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT). The Republicans nominated a super Trumper who has absolutely no chance. Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) could have made a serious run at the open Senate seat, but decided not to. He is very popular in the state and an absolute shoo-in for another term. So the answer to the quiz above is: Vermont (and, likely, New Hampshire depending on the primary result). None of the other New England states are likely to split.

Elsewhere, Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) is almost certain of another term, while the Senate race is up for grabs. In Kansas, Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) is certain to get another term but Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) might win or lose. It could go either way. Oregon is the mirror image of Kansas. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) is certain of another term but the three-way gubernatorial race could go to either party.

Now onto the tough states, where both elections could go either way. Wisconsin gets top billing here. The Senate race between Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI) is a toss-up, but so is the gubernatorial race between Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) and Tim Michels (R). All four combinations of results are plausible.

In Nevada, Gov. Steve Sisolak (D-NV) is running for reelection and so is Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). Both have a chance to win but, in a red wave, both could lose. Or it could also be a split decision.

In nearby Arizona, the battle between Katie Hobbs (D) and Kari Lake (R) for the open governor's mansion could go either way. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) currently is leading Blake Masters (R) for the Senate race, but if Peter Thiel decides to spend another $20 million or $50 million to prop up Masters, that could theoretically change, but probably not (see below).

In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is facing a less than spectacular opponent in Herschel Walker (R), but Georgia changed the voting laws last year and that could make it competitive. At the moment, Stacey Abrams (D) is not doing as well as she did 4 years ago and Donald Trump doesn't seem to be actively opposing his enemy, Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA). A Warnock/Kemp split ticket is a real possibility here.

Finally, Pennsylvania. The Republicans nominated a complete nutcase in Doug Mastriano, which makes it likely that AG Josh Shapiro (D) will become Gov. Josh Shapiro in January. Mehmet Oz is struggling (see below), but if he decides to dump in $10 or $20 million of his own money, or some billionaire does, he might have a chance. But we suspect the Democrats will win all the marbles here. (V)

Senate GOP super PAC is Canceling Ads in Alaska and Arizona

The main super PAC controlled by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has canceled $8 million worth of ads in Arizona and $2 million in Alaska, though for precisely opposite reasons.

Although McConnell didn't say so in so many words, it is clear he has given up on Blake Masters in Arizona. Here are the only nonpartisan polls we have for Arizona so far. Actually, Beacon is a Democratic firm and Shaw is a Republican firm, but since they worked together, we trust that one:

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Arizona Mark Kelly* 50% Blake Masters 42% Aug 12 Aug 16 Beacon + Shaw
Arizona Mark Kelly* 49% Blake Masters 32% May 12 May 16 Blueprint Polling

* Denotes incumbent

Various partisan polls all give similar results. No plausible poll so far has put Masters ahead and most put him far behind Kelly. So McConnell doesn't want to throw good money after bad and is washing his hands of Kelly. Beating an incumbent who just won an election 2 years ago is tough and when your horse in that race has mad horse disease, it is nearly hopeless. The NRSC came to the same conclusion last week and also hung Masters out to dry. If his boss, Peter Thiel, wants to throw $10 million or $20 million down that rathole, he is welcome to try, but it is unlikely to help. As McConnell pointed out a few days ago, candidate quality matters.

The Alaska race is completely different. McConnell is pulling money from that race because he thinks Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) can win on her own due to the new ranked-choice voting system in Alaska. There will be four candidates on the ballot in November: Murkowski, Trump endorsee Kelly Tshibaka (R), Pat Chesbro (D) and Buzz Kelley (R). In the first round, Kelley is certain to be eliminated and his votes divided between Murkowkski and Tshibaka. McConnell believes that Murkowkski will not be third at this point. If Tshibaka comes in third, then Murkowski will surely beat Chesbro in the final round because there are more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska. If Chesbro comes in third, his Democratic voters will almost all have chosen Murkowski as their second choices. This assessment is why McConnell is betting that Murkowski can do it on her own and doesn't need his help.

Also, McConnell has another problem: Ohio. J.D. Vance is running barely ahead of Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) in a state that Donald Trump won by 8 points. Here are the nonpartisan polls so far:

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Ohio Tim Ryan 42% J.D. Vance 45% Aug 15 Aug 16 Emerson Coll.
Ohio Tim Ryan 39% J.D. Vance 42% May 22 May 24 Suffolk U.

Some of the partisan polls show Ryan ahead, sometimes by a lot. One recent poll by the Center Street PAC (R) showed Ryan +11. The FiveThirtyEight average has Ryan +1 although RCP has Vance +4. These averages (and ours later) differ because each site has different criteria for accepting polls. Partisan pollsters don't necessarily make up the numbers, but we are skeptical, so we won't use them. McConnell thinks this race is salvageable and wants to put $28 million into it to save Vance's hide, even though the Minority Leader doesn't think much of Vance personally. That money has to come from somewhere. Losing Ohio would pretty much end La Tortuga's dream of becoming majority leader again, so in this triage operation, Masters lost and Vance won. (V)

Trump Is Stiffing... His Own Social Media Site

We are perpetually astounded by how many people and companies are willing to offer products and services to Donald Trump without demanding payment in full in advance. His reputation for not paying for products and services is legendary. He does this routinely, even when the product or service met his expectations, ranging from his refusal to pay the agreed price to a small businessman for supplying pianos to his hotels to his stiffing Rudy Giuliani for so-called legal services.

The most recent installment of the "Trump Won't Pay" series now involves Trump's new social media site, Truth Social. The webhosting and management is done by a company called RightForge. The company has been working for Trump for nearly a year but has been paid for only 3 months. The story of Trump's refusal to pay RightForge was first reported by Fox Business News. Fox Business says that Trump owes the company $1.6 million in unpaid invoices.

Some sources are reporting that Truth Social has financial problems and simply doesn't have the money. That seems plausible to us. The small music store that got screwed on the pianos couldn't afford to sue Trump and had to take what he was willing to pay. There was nothing it could do. RightForge can do something that would definitely get Trump's attention, though: Just type "apachectl -k stop" (or a similar command if the server is not running Apache) and Truth Social will vanish within 5 seconds. Trump would definitely notice. It is possible that the company has threatened to do this and Trump has said that if they do, he will never, ever, pay them a penny, and they backed down.

But Truth Social is so important to Trump that it seems to us this is not just a matter of Trump trying to squeeze RightForge for a discount the parties never agreed to. If the music store took all the pianos back, Trump could have no doubt found another gullible music store owner. But finding another hosting company willing to be associated with Trump and willing to take the risk of not being paid is a whole different ball of wax. Most likely Truth Social is not generating much revenue and really can't pay its vendors. Of course, Trump controls a super PAC with well over $100 million. He could pay RightForge with that money rather than risk having the site go dark, but he may need that money to pay all his lawyers in the upcoming legal battles.

The failure to pay its bills isn't Truth Social's only business problem. It was planning to merge with Digital World Acquisition Corp., whose stock price has dropped 42% since the start of the year. In addition, the SEC and Dept. of Justice are investigating the deal, which is now on hold.

If that's not enough, Trump's application for a trademark for "Truth Social" has been denied by the Patent and Trademark Office because it is too similar to that of an app named "True Social" that has been around since 2015. If the owners of True Social decide to sell the name to Trump, they should probably make sure his check clears before signing the transfer paperwork. (V)

Oz Changes His Strategy

Mehmet Oz' campaign is in deep trouble. Some polls have him down by double digits. Bad news keeps surfacing almost daily. The RNC and NRSC don't want to pour any more money down this particular rathole when there are fires to be put out in Wisconsin and other places.

So, Oz is starting to get nastier. In particular, he is now bringing up the stroke his opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA), had in May. Oz also challenged Fetterman to five debates. Fetterman said he is willing to debate but not on Oz' terms. Oz immediately declared that Fetterman was clearly too sick to debate him and was unable to stand in front of the cameras for more than 10 minutes. Still smarting from the cruditégate, Oz also said "If John Fetterman had ever eaten a vegetable in his life, then maybe he wouldn't have had a major stroke."

Some observers of Pennsylvania politics, even Republicans, are a little worried that attacks on Fetterman's health could backfire and generate a sympathy vote. Fetterman's spokesman, Joe Calvello said the vegetable remark was "extremely insensitive and unhinged."

Oz is a physician, so theoretically his remarks should carry some weight. However, on his show, he has repeatedly spouted nonsense that Fetterman could call him on, including these:

All of these are completely false. Oz won't be able to deny saying these things since there is plenty of footage available. Getting multiple reputable doctors to make an ad saying Oz is a snake-oil salesman and all of his pronouncements are lies shouldn't be hard to do. The end of the ad practically writes itself: Fetterman saying "there is a word for people like Oz"—followed by a cut to a shot of a duck pooping on a rumpled, discarded Oz poster and loudly going "quack quack quack." (V)

Crist Picks A Teacher as His Running Mate

Democrats used to own education as their topic. However, of late, Republicans are grabbing it—in reverse. Instead of being positive about schools, as Democrats were and are, they are trashing them for allegedly teaching critical race theory (which they don't) and allowing school libraries to have books that Republicans don't like. The surprising victory of Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) in 2021 was in part due to his emphasizing what was wrong with schools under the previous Democratic administration.

At least once Democrat is fighting back: Charlie Crist. The Democratic gubernatorial candidate has selected a teacher as his running mate. She is also president of the Miami-Dade County teachers union. Her name is Karla Hernández-Mats. Hernández-Mats is a Latina and the daughter of two immigrants from Honduras who came to the U.S. in the 1970s.

This covers a lot of territory. Those suburban moms care a lot about education and Florida is full of immigrants, especially Latinos. As a union leader, Hernández-Mats is used to speaking to large groups in public. Having a woman on his ticket probably helps a little bit as well..

DeSantis has been very outspoken about education. He defied public health officials and kept schools open during the pandemic. He signed a bill banning discussions of race, gender, and sexual orientation in schools. So, if a child asks the teacher: "How come Freddy has two mommies and no daddy?" the teacher is forbidden from answering. DeSantis is also a fan of letting parents have some say in banning books they consider harmful. Hernández-Mats will take him on all these topics and more.

In her acceptance speech, Hernández-Mats made it clear that she was going to hammer DeSantis until Election Day. Among other things, she said: "Are you tired of the culture wars and the extremists that are dictating what we can say and do?" Are you sick of politicians who act like authoritarians trying to tear apart our democracy? That's why we are here today: to defeat Ron DeSantis and bring decency and respect back to the state of Florida." DeSantis loves a good fight—he is "Top Gov," after all—and Hernández-Mats is going to ensure that he gets plenty of them. (V)


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