Dem
50
Ties
1
GOP
49
In 1996, when Gallup first began asking the question, just 27% of their respondents wanted same-sex marriage to be legalized. Just 8 years later, the number had crept into the low 40s, with the result that Barack Obama ran on an anti-same-sex marriage platform. That probably didn't reflect his true feelings, but sometimes a politician's gotta do what he's gotta do. Of course, when he ran for reelection, Obama flipped, and came out in support of same-sex marriage. That was still not yet a majority position overall, but it was a majority position among Democrats by 2012, and he needed to shore up his left flank.
All of this is to say that we are not far removed from a time when Congressional approval of same-sex marriage was unthinkable. Here's a chart of the responses Gallup has gotten on the issue over the last three decades:
As you can see, same-sex marriage legalization is now a solid majority position among all Americans. It's also a majority position among all political factions (Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, independents). That was enough to get all of the Democratic and independent senators on board, as well as a few Republicans. A few more Republicans could see the writing on the wall, and looked to salvage what they could on behalf of constituents who would prefer to keep discriminating against same-sex spouses. That added up to 62 votes, which was enough to forestall a filibuster and pass a bill effectively making same-sex marriage legal nationwide.
Note that states don't actually have to allow same-sex marriages, but they will have to recognize same-sex marriages from other states. So, gay Mississippians or gay Alabamians or gay South Carolinians will just have to travel to a nearby blue or purple state to get married. Between this and abortion rights, social conservatives certainly are doing their part to boost interstate commerce, aren't they?
The same-sex marriage bill still has a couple of hurdles to clear. It has to pass the House, where it will come up for a vote next week. That should not be a problem, since the country's finest cat herder still has the Speaker's gavel for another couple of months, and since a fair number of House Republicans support the legislation. Then it will need Joe Biden's signature, which he has promised is forthcoming. Ultimately, the Senate was the real challenge, since just a couple of Republican defections would have sunk the bill. Now that the Senate is in the rear-view mirror, it's shaping up to be a very gay Christmas, indeed. (Z)