Nov.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 48

Ties 3

GOP 49

How Did the Democrats Stave Off Disaster?

The New York Times asked some of its opinion columnists how the Democrats avoided the usual drubbing, shellacking, or whatever you call what the president's party normally gets in the first midterms. What is their magic formula? Here are some of their thoughts:

• Trump was a big drag on the ticket
• Backlash about the Dobbs decision got many unregistered women to register and vote
• The enthusiasm gap between the parties disappeared
• Polarization is so deep it is very hard to move the needle much
• Impressions matter: Doug Mastriano is Kari Lake without any of her poise
• There are limits to how much craziness Americans will accept
• Ticket-splitting is back in vogue (e.g., Vermont, Wisconsin)
• Being a celebrity gets you only so far (e.g., Kari Lake)

Any and all of these could have played a role. It has also occurred to us that even though people were upset about inflation, almost no Republican talked about how he or she was going to get it down. As a voter, if you have a problem and a candidate doesn't even talk about how he or she will solve it, why should you vote for that candidate? Put another way, the GOP wasn't offering a tangible alternative. Caterwauling about Critical Race Theory, transgender swimmers and Antifa might get people's blood boiling, but doesn't do anything to make the economy better. Maybe the secret to taming inflation will be found on Hunter Biden's laptop. If Republicans take the House, we'll soon know.

Also rarely investigated is why so many people are upset about the direction of the country. Some of them might be Bernie fans who actually want socialism. So even though they are unhappy about the direction of the country, they are certainly never going to vote for any Republicans. If you are angry with Biden for being such a centrist milquetoast, you are probably not a vote for Mehmet Oz or Blake Masters. (V)