Dem
50
GOP
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NBC News is reporting that, as of yesterday at 5 p.m. EST, 41,348,158 Americans had already voted. In Georgia, for example, 2.5 million people have already voted, setting a new record. Of them, 49% are Democrats and 41% are Republicans, but it is normal for more Democrats than Republicans to vote early, so that says little about who will win. Other swing states with lots of early voting include Arizona (1.4 million votes cast), Nevada (556,000), North Carolina (2.0 million), Ohio (1.4 million, Pennsylvania (1.0 million), and Wisconsin (628,000).
Does this early surge indicate that more people will vote in 2022 than in 2018? Prof. Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, an expert on voter turnout, doesn't think so. He notes that voter turnout as a percentage of the voting eligible population was 67% in 2018, the highest in over 100 years. He doubts that record will be broken. He does note, however, that higher turnout correlates with intense polarization. When people believe that the other party will destroy the country, they come out and vote in droves. However, the effect depends on whether there is a high-profile race locally. He thinks if the Democrats narrowly lose the House it will be because many Democrats in California didn't think it was necessary to vote in the races for governor and senator and stayed home, which depressed turnout for House races the Democrats desperately needed to win. (V)