Dem
50
GOP
50
Several months after having a stroke, Lt. John Fetterman debated Mehmet Oz on television. Fetterman's performance was rocky and many Democrats are worried that it would cost him the election and the Democrats control of the Senate. A new analysis of the polling data by The Washington Post's Aaron Blake (who, like David Byler, is also not named "Nate") suggests that the debate probably didn't alter the fundamentals of the race.
Basically, the trustworthy nonpartisan polls haven't changed much since the debate. A post-debate Monmouth University poll has Fetterman ahead 48-44, almost the same as Monmouth's pre-debate poll of 48-43. A Fox post-debate poll has Fetterman up 45-41 vs. 45-42 pre-debate. A Marist College post-debate poll has Fetterman ahead 51-45 vs. 51-44 in September. Emerson College has it as 47-48 now vs. 45-43 in September, but, as noted above, Emerson has a clear Republican lean this cycle.
Another aspect to consider is how many voters think the debate mattered, even in a minor way. Fox asked this and it was only 51%. And those who said it mattered were mostly Republicans and were probably not going to vote for Fetterman even if he had wiped the floor with Oz. Just 4% of Democrats and 5% of independents said the debate was the most important factor in deciding their vote.
Fox also explicitly asked if Fetterman's health might prevent him from doing his job. About 40% said it would, but that group also skewed very heavily Republican. Seventy percent of 2020 Trump voters thought that, too. Only 9% of Democrats thought that. If a pollster had asked: "Did the color of Fetterman's tie make you more likely or less likely to vote for him, it is guaranteed that an overwhelming majority of Republicans would say "less likely."
But the debate isn't the whole show. More independents (40%) are concerned about the fact that Oz lives in New Jersey than are concerned with Fetterman's health (30%). If Oz pulls this off, it will be more a matter of Republicans who didn't vote for Oz in the primary coming home and supporting "their" nominee than anything about Fetterman's health. (V)