Dem
50
GOP
50
A last-minute Washington Post/ABC generic poll shows that 48% of the voters will vote for a Democrat and 50% will vote for a Republican. Among independents, it is 45% for the Democrat 53% for the Republican. That very likely means the Republicans will capture the House. Given the large amount of gerrymandering, the Democrats would need a lead of maybe 5% or more to have a chance. Here are the results of the poll.
As you can see, men heavily favor the Republicans. Women heavily favor the Democrats, but not as strongly as the men favor the Republicans. If it were the other way, the Democrats would have a much better chance.
But as usual, turnout is everything. Here, the poll says that Republicans have an advantage. Among Republicans, 80% have already voted or say they are certain to do so. Among Democrats it is 74%. The attention gap also favors the Republicans, with 48% following the election closely vs. 37% of Democrats. It's an old story. Democrats, especially young voters, get interested in elections in September of a presidential election year and lose interest by the next February. Republicans are in it for the long haul.
Also noteworthy is that 86% of Democrats but only 63% of independents and 55% of Republicans believe the votes will be counted accurately. Nearly all the rest do not believe the votes will be counted accurately. No doubt this relates to the hundreds of Republicans running for office who explicitly or implicitly do not believe the results of the 2020 election (except for those races a Republican won).
Joe Biden's approval rating is at 43%, with 53% disapproving. Among Democrats, 82% approve and among Republicans it's only 9%. That is simply a partisan reflex at this point. If someone pinned the Republicans down and asked what exactly has Biden done that they disapprove of, a large number would say something like: "He's a socialist." (V)