Dem
50
GOP
50
Unlike The New York Times (see above), The Washington Post doesn't have a Nate to crunch the numbers. But it does have David Byler, who occupies the same ecological niche as The Other Nate. He just wrote an article that points out that the Republicans can't stop talking about their gains with Latinos. But he also notes that Trump won fewer new Latino voters than Biden won new college-educated white voters. This chart puts the Republicans' gains with Latinos in perspective:
Byler crunches the numbers and says if the Republicans merely hold their 2020 gains with Latinos but don't gain with some other major demographic group, they will continue to lose the presidential popular vote. Democrats still have the advantage with Latinos and Asians, which are growing groups, while the Republican base (the white working class) is shrinking. Even if Republicans won half of Latinos, which is a stretch, they would still lose the popular vote by 2 points. And since Latinos are concentrated in the Southwest, they don't put a lot of states other than Arizona (and maybe, but probably not, New Mexico and Nevada) in play.
Currently, Latinos make up 15% of all eligible voters. That is expected to grow to 19%, but not until 2036, which is a ways off. So to win the popular vote, Republicans need to increase their vote share among Black voters, Asians, or college-educated whites. Every Republican in the country could campaign in an Abraham Lincoln costume, but that won't budge the Black vote. Attacking China all the time probably won't help with the Chinese-American vote, and college-educated whites are definitely moving in the wrong direction for the GOP. But a party can always hope. (V)