Nov.07

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Last Look at the Senate Races

Republican Senate polls have been flooding the zone of late, but they shouldn't be taken seriously. That said, the independent polls show that many of the races are very close. If this is genuinely true, there will probably be a red mirage, as in-person Election Day votes are counted first in most states and early votes and absentee ballots only later. Election Day votes tend to favor Republicans and other votes tend to favor Democrats.

However, we still don't know if: (1) there are a substantial number of Trumpists who refuse to talk to the pollsters and (2) pollsters have figured out a way to compensate for this. If not, there could be a red wave. However, if unexpectedly large numbers of women vote entirely based on the Dobbs decision, there could be a blue wave. In short, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow and anybody who says they do is making it up. As a rule of thumb, you can probably assume that any state with a white center in our map above could go either way. If you want to know each party's likely floor, add up the "Strongly Dem" and "Likely Dem" numbers to the right of the map or alternatively the "Likely GOP" and "Strongly GOP" numbers. Right now, the Democrats are likely to have at least 45 Senate seats and the Republicans are likely to have at least 48 seats. However, we don't think Washington is really in play, despite one InsiderAdvantage poll showing Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) only 2 points ahead, so the Democrats' floor is probably 46. The other six seats with a white center are up for grabs. Also, despite the most recent polls, we think Nevada and Ohio are in play. They are pink due to recent polls from InsiderAdvantage and Emerson College, both of which seem to lean Republican. Whether they got that right or not is something we won't know until Wednesday. So in out view, the real tossups are Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. It's a very murky environment.

Here is Politico's final take on the Senate. Keep in mind, however, that Politico tends to put a lot of weight on the most recent poll and since each number in any poll is about ±4 points, that is a bit shaky.

• Arizona (Toss-up): Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) led all year over Blake Masters (R), but Masters has improved his image and along with it, his poll numbers. Some polls have put Masters' favorability in positive territory lately, but others still have it in negative territory. Keep in mind that historically, sitting senators have a big advantage over any challenger.
  
  
• Colorado (Lean Democratic): Politico cites the recent Trafalgar poll putting Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) at +2 over Joe O'Dea (R), but we don't put much stock in Trafalgar's polls. Maybe Politico just wants the race to be more exciting than it really is. We don't think Bennet is in danger.
  
  
• Georgia (Toss-up): Here the Republican polls and the independent polls are very far apart. In four recent polls by Republican firms, Herschel Walker (R) is leading Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) by 4, 3, 5, and 2 points, respectively. But five recent independent polls show, respectively a tie, Warnock +6, Warnock +2, Walker +1, and Warnock +3. However, if both candidates finish below 50%, there will be a runoff on Dec. 6. It is entirely possible that both come in below 50% because there is a third-party candidate on the ballot, even though he has withdrawn and endorsed Walker.
  
  
• Nevada (Toss-up): In three new independent polls this week, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) is tied or ahead of Adam Laxalt (R). In two Republican polls, Laxalt is ahead by 4 or 5 points. One independent poll also had Laxalt ahead. This one has been a squeaker since the start and could end up in a recount.
  
  
• New Hampshire (Toss-up): Last week, Politico had this one as "lean Democratic" but now it is rated as "toss-up." Don Bolduc (R) has been gaining momentum here and has one special factor going for him: There is no early voting, so Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) does not have any votes banked from the time she was ahead in October. If Bolduc pulls this one off, Democrats are in big trouble on Tuesday.
  
  
• North Carolina (Lean Republican): There has been limited polling here. Democrats keep hoping North Carolina will be the next Virginia, but it never seems to happen. Cheri Beasley (D) is Black but North Carolina doesn't have as many Black voters as Georgia, so that won't do the trick as she tries to knock off Rep. Ted Budd (R).
  
  
• Ohio (Lean Republican): Politico cites an Emerson College poll putting J.D. Vance (R) up 9 points but of the seven nonpartisan polls in October, Tim Ryan (D) has led in three and two were tied. Maybe Vance has momentum, but Emerson has had a strong Republican lean all year. If there is a red wave, Emerson will be cited as the new gold standard, but absent that, it will be seen as simply a failed attempt by a small college to make a name for itself in the polling game.
  
  
• Pennsylvania (Toss-up): Again here, the Republican, Mehmet Oz, is leading in the partisan Republican polls but from the independent pollsters, two of the three recent ones have Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) ahead. Based on nine recent nonpartisan polls, we have Fetterman up by one point. Politico really should know enough to take the recent flood of polls from Republicans with a barrel of salt. The big question here is whether the debate changed many votes and that is not known (but see below).
  
  
• Washington (Lean Democratic): Washington shouldn't even be on this list, since Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) has led Tiffany Smiley (R) by five points or more in 13 nonpartisan polls all year. Now there is one poll by InsiderAdvantage, which may have a Republican lean, showing Murray's lead is only 2 points. A different poll taken Oct. 25-26 has Murray up by 6 points, so Politico is giving one slightly suspect poll a lot of weight.
  
  
• Wisconsin (Toss-up): Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has been leading for a while, but Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI) has been moving up in the past week. Most polls have shown Johnson ahead 1-2 points, well within the margin of error, so calling it a toss-up is probably the right call.
  

The bottom line is that we just don't know what will happen. It could go either way. Sorry.

But maybe a few more words are called for here. On Friday, we had several items about polling. The other Nate (Cohn) wrote an article about polling on Saturday. He takes the current polls and applies the average polling errors of 2018 and 2020 to the current polls. Short answer, with the 2020 correction, New Hampshire is a tie, the Democrats win Colorado, and the Republicans win all the rest of the big marbles. With the 2018 correction, the Republicans take Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Democrats take Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, while Georgia, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are ties.

However, Cohn also talks about something we have talked about recently: the sudden appearance of polls from questionable Republican-oriented organizations and the relative dearth of polls from more established organizations. For example, Quinnipiac University has run only one battleground state poll in all of October (Oct 7-10 in Georgia) and none in November. The result is that aggregators that just add up everything that comes along may be overweighting the partisan Republican pollsters simply because there has been less output from the nonpartisan sector.

As an example, Cohn notes, as we do above, that last week four partisan Republicam firms showed Mehmet Oz ahead in Pennsylvania, but this week two nonpartisan pollsters have John Fetterman ahead and one has the two of them tied. His conclusion is that to see what really gives, you have to look under the covers and see who did the polls. We have a simpler solution: Just ignore all the partisan pollsters working for either party. But we do include Emerson College and InsiderAdvantage, which are nonpartisan but do have a strong Republican lean. Maybe they are right. We don't know yet. (V)