Dem
51
GOP
49
A week ago, we noted that Benjamin Netanyahu had managed, just before the deadline for yet another new election, to piece together a governing coalition. There was still a little bit of red tape for him to overcome, but he pulled it off, and so was sworn in yesterday for his sixth term as prime minister, about a year and a half after he was shown the door.
As he tried to regain his former job, Netanyahu was in the same position as Kevin McCarthy now is—he needed the votes of far-right members of the legislature. And with the clock ticking, the once-and-current PM gave some rather significant concessions. In particular, he promised to expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank, to pass legislation making it easier to discriminate against LGBTQ+ Israelis, and to give the Knesset the power to overturn decisions of the Israeli Supreme Court.
There is little question that Netanyahu is a very skilled political operator, but he's surely never been wedged as firmly between a rock and a hard place as he is now. Imagine that he manages to implement his promised agenda. The list of the pissed off will potentially include: moderate and liberal Israelis, secular Israeli Jews, the U.S. government, American Jews, the international community and the Palestinians. This could set the stage for increased violence in the West Bank and elsewhere, for reduced financial or other aid from the U.S. and the West, and/or for another election this year or next in which the right-wing elements are swept out of power. It is worth noting that even some members of Netanyahu's Likud Party are unhappy with the choices he's made. And with a governing coalition of just 61 people (a.k.a., zero votes to spare), it potentially takes only one unhappy Likud member to put the kibosh on legislation.
Meanwhile, if Netanyahu does not deliver on his promises, then the right-wing elements will be angry. It also takes only one of them to put the kibosh on legislation. And it should be noted that this is, at least in part, personal for the PM. As part of the negotiations that put him back into power, the right-wing elements agreed to support legislation that would, in effect, pardon him for any crimes he's committed and that would make his ongoing court battles go away.
We are hardly experts in Israeli politics, of course. In general, the correct path in a situation like this is to give both sides some of what they want, but neither side everything they want. Is that a possibility here? Looking at the issues involved, and how fraught they are, we are inclined to doubt it. (Z)