Dec.29

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The Five Biggest Known Unknowns of 2024

Ronald Brownstein has an interesting article about the 2024 presidential race that focuses on the known unknowns probably because it is easier than focusing on the unknown unknowns. Here are his top five known unknowns.

• The GOP nomination: If Donald Trump wins the nomination, the other points in this list may not matter. But it is far from certain that Trump will be the nominee. The party leadership is not likely to support Trump and some leaders may actively support Ron DeSantis or (conceivably) another candidate. To the extent that there are many Republican primary voters with college degrees left, they are not going to support Trump. The likelihood that Trump will face one or more criminal indictments also isn't likely to help him. If Trump does win the nomination, it is just 2020 all over again and the voters will get to choose if they liked 2017-2021 better than 2021-2024.
  
  If DeSantis or someone other than Trump gets the nomination, the GOP faces two risks. First, that Trump will actively disparage the nominee, especially if he and the nominee have been throwing mud at each other for a year and a half. This could lead to an independent run by Trump, since most "sore-loser" laws don't apply to runs for president. Second, if DeSantis or someone else gets the nomination, it will be by out-Trumping Trump and they will have moved so far to the right on so many culture-wars issues that every suburb in the country will be lost.
  
  
• The economy: It's the economy, stupid. Or maybe it isn't. The economy had issues in 2022 and the "in" party actually picked up a Senate seat and a few state legislative chambers. Now remember, voters are much more sensitive to the trend line in the economy than the values of the parameters. If inflation is down from 10% to 5% and dropping, voters will say that the economy is good. But if unemployment is rising from 3% to 5%, they will say it is bad. Further, recall that everyone experiences inflation, but only a small percentage of the population is worried when unemployment is up. If you don't believe this, the lopsided 1984 map (below) happened when unemployment was 7% and the incumbent president was reelected. All this said, the economy is often a key factor in elections and for an incumbent running for reelection, how well he managed the economy is a big issue.
  
  
• Biden: Will Biden still be up to the job in 2024? Will people think he is old and worn out? By 2024, his record will be clear and even if it is strong, Republicans will say he did a terrible job. They will also attack his age—unless Trump is the GOP nominee, in which case age won't be a factor. But if DeSantis is the nominee, he will be photographed playing racquetball, tennis, wrestling, waterskiing, paragliding, and participating in everything except maybe ice hockey to show how young and vigorous he is. Maybe even riding a horse bare-chested. It worked for Vladimir Putin, after all.
  
  
• Will trends reverse?: Certain long-term trends are unfolding, and whether they continue or reverse could be important. College-educated voters used to skew Republican, but they are moving towards the Democrats, taking the suburbs with them. That matters a lot in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Can the Republicans stanch the bleeding? Also an issue for Democrats is getting young voters to the polls. They hate voting when there are so many fun things to do instead.
  
  For Republicans, white noncollege voters are going the other way. Can the Democrats stop the trend? Biden is really going to try hard (see the item below on manufacturing and China).
  
  
• The House: If the House goes bonkers, will that hurt the Republican image? Suppose they impeach Biden or some cabinet secretary? How will the voters respond to that? Suppose the House Republicans cause the U.S. to default on its debt? There are so many blunders the House Republicans can make that any one of them could really tarnish the Republican brand and allow Biden to campaign on "Republicans are crazy."
  

There are obviously unknown unknowns as well. They could involve, for example, the war in Ukraine. Imagine as potential slogans "Who lost Ukraine?" or "Who drove Putin from power?" as examples. The Supreme Court could make another unpopular ruling. And then there are things no one can even conceive of now. How about a nuclear war between India and Pakistan? How about a weather event that kills thousands of people and the response to it? There are so many possible unknown unknowns. (V)