Dem
51
GOP
49
Before the good people of Pennsylvania can think about 2024, they still have work to do figuring out 2022. That's right; we might be a little late on some of our post-election coverage, but we're still way ahead of the curve as compared to the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, which is in the midst of a real soap opera right now.
Bear with us here, because you kind of need a scorecard to keep track of things. There are 203 seats in the Pennsylvania House, which means that in November there were 203 elections. Nobody disputes that Democrats won 102 of those while Republicans won 101 of them. So, the Democrats control the chamber, right, even if it's by a margin that makes the one Kevin McCarthy is working with look luxurious?
Maybe, maybe not. To start, two of the Democrats have already resigned their seats because they won election to a higher office (one, Summer Lee, is headed to Congress, while another, Austin Davis, is the new lieutenant governor). On top of that, one of the Democrats who won in November, state Rep. Tony DeLuca, died before the election (but after the deadline for making changes to the ballot).
There is little question that, once Pennsylvania voters are able to choose replacements, the seats will once again be in Democratic hands. All three districts are quite blue. But until that time, two questions linger large. The first is: Who is in the majority right now? The second is: When will the special elections be held? You see, in a delightful quirk of Pennsylvania law, that decision is made by... the state House Majority Leader.
Under these circumstances, both sides have an argument that they are the current majority party. The Democrats say they won 102 seats, and it is the clear will of the voters that the state House be controlled by the blue team. The Republicans say that the Democrats have only 99 seats, and no claim on the majority whatsoever. There is also an argument that there is, or at least was, a tie. The nonpartisan Pennsylvania Legislative Reference Bureau has weighed in with its opinion that to be elected, you not only have to win your election, you have to be alive. So, the Bureau's take is that it was 101-101 until Lee and Davis resigned.
Showing that Democrats can play dirty pool, too, state Rep. Joanna McClinton (D), who was already the leader of her party caucus, arranged to have herself sworn in as majority leader, in secret, before Lee and Davis stepped down. Upon "taking office," McClinton scheduled new elections for the first possible legal date, Feb. 7., 2023. In response, state Rep. Bryan Cutler (R), who is also the leader of his party caucus, also arranged to be sworn in as majority leader. Now, it is up to the courts to decide whose claim is legitimate.
Again, the Democrats will eventually have a clear majority once all the vacant seats are filled. But this dispute is not just academic. First, if Cutler's claim is sustained, he's going to push the special elections as far into the future as is possible. Second, although Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro (D) isn't going to sign anything passed by a Republican-controlled House, there is a possible end-run around him, since the House and the Senate can agree to put initiatives on the ballot without his input. For example, Pennsylvania Republicans are eager to put a Voter ID initiative before the voters. Third, state House Democrats fear that state House Republicans will find a way to re-write the rules so that the red team retains the speakership even once they are not in the majority.
So, the Pennsylvania courts have a potentially momentous decision to make. For what it is worth, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court currently has four seats occupied by Democrats, two by Republicans and one vacancy. The vacancy does not figure to be filled anytime soon, since Shapiro will presumably appoint a Democrat, and the Republican-controlled Senate will presumably refuse to confirm. (Z)