Dec.26

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Five Signs That Biden Is Going to Run Again

The only person who knows (maybe) for sure whether Joe Biden is going to run for reelection is... Joe Biden, although Jill Biden is probably a close second. Bettors at PaddyPower put the chance of a run at 71%. But there are tea leaves to read that could give important clues, like these:

• The Democrats: The Democratic field is quiet. Nobody is running up to New Hampshire or Iowa to sniff around. OK, so Iowa may not matter this time, but none of the potential candidates are zipping around South Carolina either. No Democratic hopeful is releasing a poll showing how he would crush either Donald Trump or Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) into fine dust. The silence has been eerie. This means that Democratic insiders expect Biden to run again and they are at least somewhat clued in by talking to White House staffers who might know stuff. For example, if Biden's pollster showed up for a chat with the President last week, that might have meant something.
  
  
• Biden's allies know: Related to the above, Biden has told close allies, like Barack Obama, that he is in. They have intentionally or accidentally spread the word among Democratic hopefuls that they should set an alarm on their phones for around March 2027 or so. White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain recently told reporters that Biden will make an important announcement early next year. Klain wouldn't have said that unless he was pretty sure Biden was in.
  
  
• The campaign: There have been numerous stories that have been leaking out about what kind of campaign Biden will run. We had one a week ago, but there are plenty of others. These stories happen because either the White House is leaking them or the people involved are leaking them. One story that is getting a lot of attention is where the campaign headquarters will be. It might be in Philadelphia again or possibly in Wilmington, DE.
  
  
• The message: Biden's campaign message got a test run during the midterms. Very simply, it is "Republicans are too extreme." It is a smart message because it works against both Trump and DeSantis. Trump is old hat, but there is a ton of stuff Biden could use against DeSantis to portray him as an extremist. The message would even work in the very unlikely event that somehow Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) got the nomination. It wouldn't work against Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD), but Biden is no doubt guessing that that ain't gonna happen.
  
  
• Jill: At a state dinner earlier this month, Jill Biden essentially told French President Emmanuel Macron that Biden is running. She probably didn't mean to let it slip, but if Biden were planning to retire, Jill wouldn't have told Macron that her husband is champing at the bit. She is actually the key to the whole issue. There are only two reasons Biden might decide not to run. First, a serious health issue and second that Jill was against a run. Neither of them seem to be obstacles as far as any outsider can see.
  

So although most Democratic voters don't want Biden to run, it appears that he is going to give it his best. Almost no one wants Biden vs. Trump again, but that is a real possibility. On the other hand, Biden vs. DeSantis seems increasingly likely due to Trump's many legal (and possibly tax) issues. As an aside, bettors at PaddyPower put the chance of DeSantis as the GOP nominee at 55% and of Trump at 31%. Mike Pence and Nikki Haley are at 6%. Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) is at 4%. Sens. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Josh Hawley are at 2%, as are Mike Pompeo and Jeb! Despite the little bubble about Scott as the nominee, being tied with Jeb! at 2% is not good sign. The good news is that Ivanka (0.7%) is ahead of Ye (0.5%). (V)