Dem
51
GOP
49
It is a little early to be polling the 2024 Arizona U.S. Senate race. After all, there are many known unknowns, including:
Nonetheless, it's at least possible to make some educated guesses, which is what PPP did. Here are their results, which are based on the presumption that the Republican candidate will be Kari Lake:
The poll was commissioned and released by Gallego, so take it with a grain or two of salt. That said, PPP is a legitimate pollster, so you don't need too much salt.
In any event, look what happens when you swap Sinema for Gallego: 5% of Lake voters suddenly don't know who to vote for. We assume those are mostly centrist-to-conservative types who would consider either candidate. So, Sinema would potentially win some Lake voters that Gallego would not.
At the same time, when you make the swap, nearly 10% of Gallego voters suddenly don't know who to vote for. It is somewhat unlikely that there are voters who rank Gallego #1A, Lake #1B and Sinema #3. There may be some—conservative-leaning Latinos, perhaps—but probably not many. So, we have to assume that most of that 10% are Democratic voters who really don't want to vote for either candidate. And while some of them would grit their teeth and check the box for Sinema, others would likely skip that line on the ballot or else vote third party.
Our conclusion, then, is that for every vote Sinema might steal from the Republican candidate, she would likely drive away something like two Democratic votes. So, the blue team really, really needs to find a way to convince Sinema to drop out in 2024. Gallego is much more competitive, even now, and as the only candidate who has not run statewide, his support likely has room to grow. The seat will be in considerably less danger if he can just go head-to-head with the Republican nominee.
Note that while Gallego is well known outside Arizona, inside Arizona former Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton now Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ) is also well known. He might decide to challenge Gallego in a primary, so it would be nice to see general election polls with Lake, Stanton, and Sinema. Furthermore, Lake is no shoo-on for the Republican nomination if Gov. Greg Ducey (R-AZ) or AG Mark Brnovich (R) decides to run. (Z)