Dem
51
GOP
49
Jill Biden would not openly pooh-pooh her husband's political prospects. However, 3 months ago, there was much scuttlebutt that she was weary of the song and dance, and of the abuse her husband was taking, and she was very ready to be one-term-and-done. Now, however, the First Lady has apparently done a 180. The same folks who were whispering 3 months ago about her being done with Washington now say she is "all in" on another run.
In the past month or so, just about everyone has been lining up behind a potential 2024 run for Joe Biden. First it was the Democratic pooh-bahs, like Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Then it was the progressive members of the House, who have concluded that getting 30% of what you want is better than getting 0% of what you want. And now, Biden's family is falling in line. Oh, and as we noted earlier this week, the President's campaign apparatus is already gearing up and working on a reelection strategy.
As we have pointed out many times, even if he is prepared to run now, Biden could certainly change his mind later. That is what happened with Harry S. Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson, who were all-in in 1951 and 1967, respectively, but who bowed out in 1952 and 1968 when the political winds shifted and it became apparent to them that they could not be reelected. However, it is hard to see how this particular dynamic could plausibly derail Biden at this point. Truman and Johnson were done in by unpopular wars; Korea and Vietnam. Biden does not have an ongoing war to serve as an anchor around his neck. In fact, he ended the only one that was still underway when he took office, and it's exceedingly unlikely that he'll start a new one (Volodymyr Zelenskyy can have money, but probably not direct military support). A president could be ruined by a bad economy but the economy was about as grim as it can get these days in November, and the Democrats weren't especially damaged. Herbert Hoover and George H.W. Bush were not dissuaded from running by a poor economy, even if they probably should have been, and we don't imagine Biden would be dissuaded either, assuming the economy is again in poor shape in 2024.
And so, it sure looks to us like the only thing that could stop Biden 2024 is if his health takes a significant turn for the worse. He's 80, so it certainly could happen. However, he's a very fit 80, and while it's true there's never been an 80-year-old president, 80 today is basically the equivalent of 65 or 60 two or three (or more) generations ago. In other words, it's pretty fair to say that Biden is not much different, in terms of health, than Ronald Reagan (69 on assuming office), James Buchanan (65), Bush (64), Dwight D. Eisenhower (62), Andrew Jackson (61), John Adams (61) or Gerald Ford (61) were at the start of their presidencies. It's true that Ike had a bunch of heart attacks and that Jackson was in pretty bad shape, but three of the four others lived 15 or more years beyond their presidencies. And actually, even Jackson and Eisenhower lived for 8 years after leaving office. Only Buchanan, who lived 7 years, did not make it long enough to see at least two more presidential elections.
But is Biden the best choice for the Democrats, politically? At the moment, our guess is "yes." Incumbency is a very valuable thing, and should not be dismissed lightly. It's true that there will be poll after poll after poll next year showing that voters are not enthusiastic about the President. However, people weren't enthusiastic about him in 2020, either. And the fact is that it's better for the blue team to have a standard-bearer who is at least tolerable for nearly all Democrats, as opposed to a standard-bearer who is very exciting for some but off-putting for others (e.g., Bernie Sanders). That is particularly true if the Republicans run a Trumpy candidate, which they almost certainly will. Remember that presidential elections, more often than not, are not about the "best" option, but instead the "least bad" option. And we suspect that the same 51.3% of voters who saw the President as the "least bad" option in 2020 will continue to feel that way in 2024 if he's up against Donald Trump or Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) or someone else of their ilk. (Z)