Dem
51
GOP
49
Democratic representative Donald McEachin (D-VA) died of cancer on Nov. 28. The Constitution requires House vacancies to be filled by a special election. The district covers much of Richmond, is heavily Black, and is D+16. Consequently, no Republican normally has a chance there (but see below). Nevertheless, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) is playing politics with the special election. Here's the backstory.
State law requires the parties to run their own primaries. These are often called firehouse primaries because they typically held in firehouses. The state is not involved as they are for normal primaries. Youngkin announced the special election date just a week ago. It will be held on Feb. 21, 2023. He could have scheduled it in March, but chose not to. Is that because he was concerned about the good people of VA-04 not being represented in Congress for a few months? Not in the slightest. He knew that the timeline is set by state law and requires each party to file its candidates 60 days before the special election. That is by 5 p.m. on Dec. 23, 2022. In other words, this Friday. So his choice gave each party only a week to run the primary and pick its candidates. The Republicans don't care and will find some sacrificial lamb without much thought going into it.
But for the Democrats, getting candidates to collect the required 150 signatures to file, organize the primary, and tell voters to show up—all in a week—is a huge challenge. Youngkin is smiling, as he always does. He is aware that the best-known local Black Democratic politician in the district, other than McEachin, is state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Does he like McClellan and want her to win? Probably no on the first part, definitely yes on the second part. Currently, Democrats hold a 21-19 majority in the state Senate and if McClellan leaves the state Senate for the U.S. House, it will be 20D, 19R, which gives him a greater chance of getting things through the state Senate until there is a special election to replace her. If a Republican wins the special election, Democrats won't control it anymore.
McClellan indeed filed to run for Congress. But so did Del. Lamont Bagby (D) and also Joe Morrissey (was I, now D). Bagby is Black and McEachin's closest protégé, but McClellan has the support of the all the Northern Virginia U.S. representatives. The Democrats were afraid that McClellan and Bagby would split the vote and allow Morrissey to win with a small plurality. Nobody wanted that.
Why not? Well, Morrissey is white and a pro-life Catholic. He is a lawyer who has punched people in the courtroom and who has been disbarred twice. He was convicted of contributing to the delinquency of a minor (a receptionist at his law firm) although he did marry her later. He went to jail for that but was elected to the state House as an independent while in jail. See why the Democrats are not keen on having him as their candidate? He could conceivably actually lose to an unknown Republican, even in a D+16 district.
Bagby sized up the situation and decided to drop out and endorse McClellan, so the primary is McClellan vs. Morrissey. McClellan is the favorite. And Youngkin's nasty little trick may not work, as Bagby is likely to run for McClellan's state Senate seat if she is elected to the U.S. House. Thanks to his taking one for the team, Bagby will undoubtedly have the full support of McClellan and the entire Virginia Democratic Party in his attempt to get a promotion from the House of Delegates to the state Senate sometime next year. If Bagby wins, then it is back to 21-19 and Democrats aren't going to forget this bit of trickery on Youngkin's part. Politics is sometimes complicated and you can't tell the players without a program. (V)