Dem
51
GOP
49
Maybe it sounds crazy, but probably the most endangered Republican senator in 2024 is Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). Of course, that is because most of the 2024 states with Republican incumbents are deep red and Florida is merely reddish, rather than Mississippi crimson. But on top of that, Scott has made many serious mistakes that are bound to come back and bite him in the rear, especially if the Democrats can find a high-qualify challenger in 2024.
For one thing, earlier this year, Scott rolled out a 12-point plan to rescue America. It was intended as his platform back when he was planning to run for president. Among other things, it would abolish Social Security and Medicare in 5 years and require Congress to pass them again if it wanted to. If Congress deadlocked, as it generally does, they would just vanish. Republicans panned the plan soundly and a Scott presidential run wouldn't last a week. Many Republicans feel this is evidence that Scott has a tin ear.
Second, as chairman of the NRSC, he took a hands-off approach to the Republican Senate primaries, allowing untested and unqualified candidates to win the primaries and then go down to defeat in November. He could have actively intervened and tried to block Donald Trump's picks. Scott was afraid of Trump, however, and didn't step up. He is as much to blame for Democrats increasing their hold on the Senate as anyone other than Donald Trump. Every Republican senator (and many other Republicans not in the Senate) know this and hold it against Scott.
Third, his job as NRSC chairman was to win Senate elections, no matter who the candidates were. Typically in a midterm election, the president's party loses at least a handful of seats, sometimes 10-12 seats. Not only did the Democrats not lose any seats in the general election, they won an extra seat and took full control of the Senate. So Scott did a lousy job in the primaries and then another lousy job in the general election. He's 0 for 2.
Fourth, Scott ran against Mitch McConnell for the job of minority leader. He didn't come close. That shows horrible political judgment. You don't challenger the leader unless you think you have the votes to unseat him. Since he didn't, he should never have tried. McConnell now hates him. That's not a good place to be for a Republican senator.
Scott is so unpopular that some Republicans are talking up a plan to have Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) challenge Scott in a primary. Scott could probably win that, but a bruising primary probably wouldn't help him win reelection even if he won the primary easily, assuming the Democrats settled on one candidate early on.
Now, all this is not to say that Scott is a dead man walking. Far from it, but given the map and his many failures, he is probably the weakest Republican incumbent up in 2024. The Democrats' best plan for taking him down might be to arrange for a primary challenge if one did not surface organically, and then put a fair amount of money into oppo research and blasting Scott with negative ads—nominally coming from some other Republican. It would be a long shot effort, but better than trying to pick up seats in places like North Dakota or Wyoming. (V)