Dec.14

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Republican Voters Want Donald Trump in 2024. Unless They Don't.

Yesterday, two polls on the 2024 Republican presidential contest were released. The first, from Morning Consult, makes it clear that Donald Trump remains at the top of the heap when it comes to Republican voters. The poll says that 49% of them want Trump as their 2024 standard bearer, as compared to 31% for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and 8% for former VP Mike Pence. None of the other candidates that Morning Consult asked about polled above 2%, and the candidate that GOP pooh-bahs in the Senate are pushing, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) polled at a robust 0.0%.

The second poll was from USA Today/Suffolk. This one makes clear that when it comes to Republican voters, Trump is... in deep doo-doo. In this case, respondents were only given two options: Trump or DeSantis. And the Governor came out on top, big-time: 56% to 33%. To review, then, two polls released on the same day, and run over the same timeframe (Dec. 7-11), produced results of Trump +18 and DeSantis +23. That is a difference of 41 points.

Huh? What is going on here? Every poll has a margin of error, of course, and sometimes a pollster gets a wonky sample. But those things cannot explain a 41-point differential. It does not help that most of these pollsters are not releasing their list of questions, so it's hard to look carefully at their methodology. That said, there appear to be at least three factors in the odd results:

1. Wording Matters: Though we don't know exactly how the above polls were presented to respondents, it's pretty clear from the write-up that USA Today/Suffolk steered readers into deciding between "Trump with Trumpy-policies" versus "Not Trump, but with Trumpy policies." In other words, a non-realistic scenario that completely removes the risk that DeSantis (or some other Republican) is pretending to be Trumpy, but really isn't. Of course the Governor is going to get more support in a scenario where there is no risk of buyer's remorse.
   
   
2. Anyone But Trump: Trump clearly commands the loyalty of more Republican voters than any other candidate. However, it would appear that his support is below 50%, and may be below 45% or even 40%. So, if all the anti-Trump vote is forced to line up behind one candidate, he gets much weaker. If the anti-Trump vote is allowed to splinter, he's a world-beater.
   
   
3. Holding-their-nose Trump Voters: It's so long until the 2024 primaries, and DeSantis is still enough of an unknown, that many voters don't really know what they will actually do when it comes time to cast their ballots. However, the numbers suggest that some Trump support is coming from people who think he has the best chance to win, and will hold their noses and vote for him on that basis. If DeSantis (or some other candidate) can make the case that they have the best chance to win, Trump figures to lose those voters.

There's plenty of time for things to change, particularly as Trump's legal problems do or do not produce indictments, and DeSantis' national profile grows or wilts. However, as a thought exercise, let us imagine that it is December 2023 and the Republican primaries are right around the corner. Here is what the primaries would look like, based on these numbers:

1. Trump would be challenged by DeSantis and a bunch of delusional Republicans like Pence and Nikki Haley.
   
   
2. With the anti-Trump vote split, the former president would win the first several primaries. Given the Republicans' preference for winner-take-all, he would build up a delegate lead. Assuming the calendar remains the same, and that Trump swept the first four primaries/caucuses, he would head into Super Tuesday with about 100 delegates, still well short of the 1,100 or so needed to win.
   
   
3. Heading into Super Tuesday, and its 600 delegates, the anti-Trump forces would need the other Republicans to drop out and for the anti-Trump vote to coalesce around one candidate (DeSantis or otherwise). If this came to pass, the non-Trump candidate would probably finish Super Tuesday on relatively equal footing with The Donald.
   
   
4. However, delusional politicians usually don't drop out before Super Tuesday, just in case there's a miracle. In 2016, for example, Super Tuesday dawned with six candidates still in the Republican race: Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Ben Carson, John Kasich and Jeb! If that were to be repeated in 2024, Trump would likely take the lion's share of Super Tuesday delegates, and would finish Super Tuesday with a 300-400 delegate lead.
   
   
5. Whether before or after Super Tuesday, the field would eventually narrow to Trump and the not-Trump candidate. The not-Trump candidate would likely be a little more popular, but Trump would have a delegate lead, possibly a somewhat substantial one. Regardless of how quickly the non-Trump field was winnowed down, it would be plausible for both Trump and the non-Trump candidate to stay in for the long haul, as each of the two would win some primaries and would lose some primaries. There's an excellent chance that a knock-down, drag-out fight could linger into May or June, particularly given Trump's unwillingness to accept defeat, even when he's defeated.

In short, if the Republican primaries were just weeks away, things would likely get ugly for the Republican Party. No wonder the Party leadership is already trying to push some alternate candidate, as a long and bitter primary season would be disastrous for the GOP. After all, Trump voters in particular are exactly the type to hold grudges. (Z)