Dem
51
GOP
49
Federal agencies will run out of money on Friday. Democrats want to pass a budget bill to fund the government for another year this week and increase spending to counteract inflation. Republicans want to pass a bill to fund it for another month so that the issue will have to come up again in January, when Republicans will control the House and have more leverage than they do now. If the two sides can't agree on a bill, there will be a government shutdown just before Christmas, the ultimate game of Chicken. Nobody really wants that, but both sides want to get their way here. A "compromise" in the form of a 6-month bill helps the Republicans because they will also control the House in June, when it runs out. Democrats want to get this done for a year before the Republicans take over the House.
A big stumbling block is discretionary (i.e., not mandatory) nondefense spending. Much of this goes to numerous social programs that the Democrats support and Republicans oppose. The parties agree on spending for defense and veterans' care, so that is not a bone of contention. One issue where there is a huge gap between the parties is the $80 billion for the IRS that was appropriated in earlier bills this year. The Republicans very strongly want to repeal it. They know that the IRS is not going to spend money going after a bus driver. all of whose income in subject to withholding. But for a billionaire who has companies headquartered in Panama, Lichtenstein, and the Cayman Islands, well, that is different story. Many of those people donate big time to the Republicans and expect some return on investment there—for example, crippling the IRS.
One potential way out would be a deal to pass a bill that continues spending for a year at the current levels except for the military and veterans. De facto, this would cut domestic spending by about 10% due to inflation. Republicans might accept that but Democrats really don't want it.
Senate Appropriations Chair Pat Leahy (D-VT) and House Appropriations Chair Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) are working on a new bill to be released today. They hope it will win Republican support. Leahy said that it will fund the military at the level the Republicans want and also increase domestic spending somewhat. He hopes he can get 10 Republican votes in the Senate to invoke cloture and prevent shutting the government down. Republicans dismissed the idea out of hand. Departing Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) said "It's already failed before it starts."
This kind of impasse has happened many times in the past. Sometimes a deal is worked out at the last minute. Sometimes not, and the government shuts down. A lot depends on who the players perceive as getting the blame. If Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) thinks the Republicans will get the blame, he might quietly ask 10 Republican senators to vote for cloture but then vote against the bill itself to cover their behinds. Then it would pass the House on a party line vote and pass the Senate 51 to 50. But if McConnell thinks Joe Biden will get the blame, he might just let the government go dark for Christmas. That is how Chicken is played. (V)