Dem
51
GOP
49
Last week, the Trump Organization was found guilty on 17 counts of tax fraud. The fine will be only $1.6 million, petty cash to Trump, but the fallout could be immense.
First, in other jurisdictions, prosecutors could realize that bringing cases against the Trump Organization or even Trump himself is not a fool's errand. More cases could pop up all over the place. They could be civil cases from people who were duped by Trump somehow, or criminal cases by ambitious D.A.'s who see gold in nailing Trump. Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis probably sees this as a sign from heaven that she should indict him, and there could be others in states where Trump has properties and has dodged taxes.
Second, while prosecutors in other cases will probably be forbidden from introducing Trump's convictions as formal evidence at subsequent trials. Most of the jurors are likely to know about these convictions. That could certainly influence their votes. In the secrecy of the jury's deliberation room, somebody might just say: "We know he committed 17 other crimes. Does anyone really believe they were the only ones? He's clearly a crook."
Third, other companies won't want to deal with him now that the company has been convicted. Former New York State prosecutor Ben Gershman said: "The consequences could potentially be devastating for the company. The Trump Organization is now toxic. Nobody wants to touch them." Specifically, no respectable bank will lend the company money, no insurance company will issue it a policy, and landing government contracts may be close to impossible. How will he do business now? Borrow money from the Mafia at 20% annual interest? Is that a workable business deal? Maybe the Saudi Arabian government will work with Trump, but they also have to consider how Joe Biden might react to that, and they need Biden more than he needs them.
Fourth, most of Trump's new projects consist of licensing his brand rather than construction. Who wants to build Trump Tower Boise or Trump Tower Anywhere, given how toxic he is? Again, maybe he can do some projects in countries with corrupt dictators, but what does Trump Tower Pyongyang do for his brand's image?
Fifth, these convictions make it more likely that Trump will try to make a plea deal with NY AG Letitia James to avoid yet another batch of very public convictions. But she is in the driver's seat here and is certainly not going to settle for a $2 million fine and let it go at that. She could require a massive fine and an agreement to stop doing all business in New York State for 5 years or more. (V)