Dem
51
GOP
49
At this point everything about the 2024 presidential race is speculation. So let's speculate. Jonathan V. Last, over at The Bulwark (a site run by never-Trump Republicans), has some interesting speculations on the matter. He starts out by citing tweets from never-Trumper Bill Kristol sent out on Election Day. They give a six-point plan for getting rid of Donald Trump:
Kristol was close on the first two. Warnock got 51%, not 53%, but he did win. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has already said that he doesn't think Trump shouldn't run in 2024. Kristol probably got the third one and likely the fourth one right as well. As far as Biden throwing in the towel and then Trump fading into the background, it seems very unlikely.
Last dismisses the above as just "happy talk." Then he goes on about what it would take to end Trump's dominance of the Republican Party. He thinks it can't be anti-Trump because the base won't accept that. It certainly won't be Compassionate Conservatism. It needs to be more populist than Trump, not less. He says this because he believes the Republican leaders aren't actually leaders. McConnell can probably sway a few big donors, but he has no influence at all with the rank and file voters. Speaker Wannabe Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has even less. Neither of these have any say over who the GOP nominee will be. Trump will live or die by the polls. If he stays around 40%, he'll be tough to beat. The daily news cycle deals with things like the debt ceiling, but his voters don't give a hoot about any of it.
Trump has some major advantages. First, he is very skilled at fighting Republicans. In 2016, he slaughtered over a dozen of the finest the Republican Party had to offer. Trump not only is an expert at triggering the libs, which the base just eats up, but he is also great at taking down RINOs, which the base loves even more.
Second, the base wants the craziest guy around. Who can out-crazy Trump? DeSantis can't do that. In fact, DeSantis is no good at all at RINO hunting. If DeSantis starts to get real traction, the base will think that is due to McConnell and the other RINOs. They will rebel.
The media are full of stories about Trump having dinner with a couple of antisemites and all-around bigots. What did DeSantis say about that? Nothing. If he had criticized Trump, that would put him on the same side as the Democrats, The New York Times, and CNN. The base would hate him for it.
So Last thinks DeSantis can get the support of the big donors and the RINOs in the GOP leadership, just not the rank-and-file voters. However, he is not totally pessimistic. He thinks there is one person who might be able to stop Trump: Father Time. Trump is 76, in poor condition, and eats mostly junk food. Where has he been since his announcement on Nov. 15, more than 3 weeks ago? Normally after an announcement, candidates are holding rallies, giving interviews, paling around with celebrities, and in Trump's case, doing grip-and-grins with Republican toadies too scared to tell him they think he is a dottering old fool. Elon Musk invited him back on Twitter but so far he hasn't shown up, possibly because he is afraid that would give Musk leverage over him and he is too weak to fight back. He hasn't even left Florida since the announcement. Dominating a cult takes energy and maybe Trump doesn't have so much anymore. Low-energy Donald this time? Will he have to change his slogan from "MAGA" to "Donald!"? Maybe he simply won't be up to defending himself in half a dozen lawsuits and criminal cases, feeding red meat to the base daily, traveling all over the country holding rallies while fending off the DeSantises, Cruzes, and Pences biting his ankles.
Republicans keep calling the president "Sleepy Joe." But that kind of works in his favor. Nobody expects him to be out there on camera playing racquetball with his grandkids. He can conduct a Rose Garden campaign and give a gentle speech here and there and be seen as presidential. Trump has to be seen running around and being very active and maybe he just isn't up to that anymore. (V)