We collected nine nonpartisan polls for the Georgia runoff, as follows:
Warnock | Walker | Start | End | Pollster |
51% | 48% | Dec 04 | Dec 04 | InsiderAdvantage |
49% | 47% | Nov 30 | Nov 30 | Patriot Polling |
50% | 47% | Nov 28 | Nov 30 | SurveyUSA |
51% | 49% | Nov 28 | Nov 30 | Emerson Coll. |
52% | 48% | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | SSRS |
47% | 48% | Nov 26 | Nov 27 | Phillips Academy |
50% | 50% | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Frederick Polls |
51% | 46% | Nov 18 | Nov 28 | U. Mass, Lowell |
51% | 47% | Nov 11 | Nov 17 | Fabrizio+Impact |
50.2% | 47.8% | Average |
The average of the nine polls put Warnock ahead by 2.4 points. He actually won by 2.8 points. Since the margin of error of most polls is about 3-4 points, we conclude that the pollsters did a good job this time. So maybe when Donald Trump is not personally on the ballot, the polls do fine. (V)