Dem
51
GOP
49
The previous item took a peek at the key Senate races in 2024. Now let's look at the House. One could look at the details of individual districts, but it is probably a bit early for that. Instead, one can take a "macro-economic" view. A key indicator is crossover districts; that is, districts with a Democratic representative in a district that Donald Trump won and districts with a Republican representative that Joe Biden won. In both cases, the incumbent went against the lean of the district. Maybe that incumbent ran a really great campaign or had tons of money or just had a weak opponent, but any such incumbent is going to be a prime target in 2024. The question now is how many crossover districts there are. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball counted them in all House election years since 2000, with these results:
| Year | Dems in red districts | GOPers in blue districts | Total |
| 2000 | 46 | 40 | 86 |
| 2002 | 32 | 26 | 58 |
| 2004 | 41 | 18 | 59 |
| 2006 | 62 | 8 | 70 |
| 2008 | 49 | 34 | 83 |
| 2010 | 12 | 62 | 74 |
| 2012 | 8 | 17 | 26 |
| 2014 | 5 | 26 | 31 |
| 2016 | 12 | 23 | 35 |
| 2018 | 31 | 3 | 34 |
| 2020 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 2022 | 5 | 18 | 23 |
As you can see, the number of crossover districts has gradually decreased over time. Way back when, party-line voting wasn't so common. People voted for the "best candidate" in each race. Now people usually vote based on the (D) or (R). Nevertheless, there are 5 vulnerable Democrats and 18 vulnerable Republicans, all of whom are going to be heavily targeted in 2024. If the races split down the middle, the Republicans will pick of 2 or 3 seats and the Democrats will pick up 9 seats. This will be a net gain of 6 or 7 seats for the Democrats. The 2023 House is 213D, 222R. If the Democrats pick up 6 seats, the 2025 House will be 219D, 216R—that is, Democratic control by 3 seats. Talk about close. Of course, maybe the split won't be 50-50. Maybe all the incumbents will win. Still, the number and distribution of crossovers—especially in an election year— gives the Democrats hope for the 2024 election.
What will be especially interesting to see is how the 18 Republicans in Biden districts vote in the House. Will they follow the party line on everything? Will they regard Hunter Biden's laptop as the biggest issue facing the country in the next 2 years? They are surely all aware that their voting record will be under a microscope in 2024 and aren't going to want to take tough votes that can be used against them in 2024. But Since the Republicans can afford only four defections on any vote, the speaker can't tell all of them "vote your district." This puts them very much on the hot seat.
No doubt you are curious about who the endangered congresscritters are. Here's the list:
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| District | Member | Biden margin | R margin | Danger |
| NY-04 | Anthony D'Esposito | 14.6% | 3.6% | 11.0% |
| CA-13 | John Duarte | 10.9% | 0.4% | 10.5% |
| CA-22 | David Valadao | 13.0% | 3.4% | 9.6% |
| NY-17 | Mike Lawler | 10.1% | 0.6% | 9.5% |
| OR-05 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 8.8% | 2.2% | 6.6% |
| CA-27 | Mike Garcia | 12.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| NY-22 | Brandon Williams | 7.4% | 1.6% | 5.8% |
| NE-02 | Don Bacon | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| NY-19 | Marc Molinaro | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| CA-45 | Michelle Steel | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| AZ-01 | David Schweikert | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| NJ-07 | Tom Kean | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| NY-03 | George Santos | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| AZ-06 | Juan Ciscomani | 0.1% | 1.4% | -1.3% |
| VA-02 | Jen Kiggans | 1.9% | 3.4% | -1.5% |
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick | 4.6% | 10.0% | -5.4% |
| NY-01 | Nick Lalata | 0.2% | 11.8% | -11.6% |
| CA-40 | Young Kim | 1.9% | 13.6% | -11.7% |
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| District | Member | Trump margin | D margin | Danger |
| WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 4.2% | 0.8% | 3.4% |
| PA-08 | Matt Cartwright | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| AK-AL | Mary Peltola | 10.1% | 9.8% | 0.3% |
| ME-02 | Jared Golden | 6.1% | 6.2% | -0.1% |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur | 2.9% | 13.0% | -10.1% |
There is a lot to digest in this table. Column 3 shows how much the presidential candidate won the district by. Column 4 shows how much the representative won the district by. The last column shows the difference between the two numbers. The table is sorted on this column. So for example, in NY-04, Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY) won by 3.6 points in a district Biden carried by 14.6 points. That puts him 11.0 points in the hole. D'Esposito was either a fantastic candidate or damn lucky that he won in such a blue district (PVI of D+5). He's in big trouble next time and will be the Democrats' #1 target. In contrast, Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) won by 13.6 points in a district Biden barely carried by 1.9 points (in an R+2 district). Republicans whose "danger" level is above 5.0, are going to be top targets next time. Republicans with negative scores are safer.
The bottom part of the table shows Democrats in districts Trump won. None of them are above 5. If they were, they would be in deep doodoo. Only Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who is in Jaime Herrera Beutler's district (PVI of R+5) had better start campaigning right now. The others did as well as Trump, and Kaptur greatly outperformed Trump in an R+3 district.
Our conclusion is that in 2024, Democrats have a decent shot at picking up half a dozen or so seats while the only crossover Democrat in real danger is Perez. Of course, candidate quality, money, the presidential race, and many other factors will play a role, as they always do. Nevertheless, it is almost certain that most or all of these seats will be in play next time. (V)