The Republicans do well in midterm elections primarily because Democrats don't bother to vote. The midterm electorate is typically smaller than the presidential electorate by 40 to 50 million voters. If the effect were random, it wouldn't matter. But the nonvoters tend to be predominantly young people and minorities, which lean strongly Democratic. Here is a table showing turnout since 2000.
| Year | Voting-age population | Turnout | Percentage |
| 2012 | 240,926,957 | 130,234,600 | 54% |
| 2010 | 235,809,266 | 90,682,968 | 38% |
| 2008 | 231,229,580 | 132,618,580 | 57% |
| 2006 | 220,600,000 | 80,588,000 | 37% |
| 2004 | 221,256,931 | 122,294,978 | 55% |
| 2002 | 215,473,000 | 79,830,119 | 37% |
| 2000 | 205,815,000 | 105,586,274 | 51% |
The percentages aren't exact because the voting-age population also includes noncitizens and felons, but these change the numbers by only a few percent. Nevertheless, the big picture is clear: turnout drops dramatically in midterm elections and it is largely Democrats who don't show up.
To counter this effect this year, the Democrats have set up a program to mobilize black voters. It will focus on increasing turnout via black churches and black talk radio. Black voters will be reminded of the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, MO, and told their voices can be heard by voting (for the Democrats).
This outreach to black voters has to be somewhat under the radar, though, because the states with large black populations, like Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina, are also states where white voters don't like President Obama. Consequently ads on mainstream radio and television won't work and a more targeted approach is needed. That is what the Democrats are planning. Republicans don't have to worry about this kind of microtargeting since they are talking to the majority.
Since the 2016 presidential campaign has already started (even though not everyone realizes this) and Hillary Clinton is an all-but-declared candidate, her every move and utterance is scrutinized like the entrails of some sacrificial goat. The Hill has five takeaways about her summer.
Cases of in-person voter fraud are very rare, but Fairfax County in Virginia is now investigating whether 17 people improperly voted in both Maryland and Virginia in 2012. The suspicion has arisen in these 17 cases because people with the same name and birth date voted in both states. That doesn't necessarily mean both voters were the same person. What is also highlighted by this investigation is how rare even allegations of voter fraud are, let alone convictions. Even if all 17 cases are true fraud (and that hasn't been proven yet), they represent only 0.0032% of the total vote. Laws requiring a voter to show photo ID do not catch this kind of situation since no voter tried to impersonate another voter in any of these cases. According to Prof. Richard L. Hasen, an election law expert at the University of California at Irvine, the biggest source of election fraud is people selling their absentee ballots or absentee ballots being stolen from mailboxes. None of the voter ID laws even address this problem.
SurveyUSA has released a new poll showing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) leading secretary of state Alison Lundergan Grimes 46% to 42%. However, since the poll was taken, two events have happened that could affect the race. First, McConnell was caught on tape talking to the Koch brothers and promising them that as majority leader he would block everything Obama wanted to do in the last 2 years of his term. Second, McConnell's campaign manager, Jesse Benton, resigned yesterday amidst a scandal in which the Ron Paul campaign (which Benton ran) bribed an Iowa state senator for his endorsement in 2012. While McConnell was not involved in the bribe in any way, Grimes is surely going to run ads effectively saying: "The old boys club is corrupt and we need to send new people to Washington to clean up the mess."
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | I | I % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Kentucky | Alison Lundergan Grimes | 42% | Mitch McConnell* | 46% | Aug 25 | Aug 27 | SurveyUSA |