Who Are the Blue Dogs?     Permalink

There has been a lot of discussion in recent months about whether the conservative Democrats in the House, most of them members of the Blue Dog Coalition, will scuttle or weaken the health reform bill floating around Congress. The Blue Dogs are not a homogeneous group. Some were elected in heavily Republican districts and feel they have to vote like Republicans to survive. Others are from strongly Democratic districts and are just conservative by nature, rather than reflecting their district's composition. Here is the list of Blue Dogs, the PVIs of their districts, their margin of victory in the 2008 election, and the amount Obama won (positive numbers) or lost (negative numbers) their district. The freshmen (freshpersons?) and sophomores are shown in a light blue color. These are members who have run only during Democratic wave elections and may be the most vulnerable, especially in a midterm that is likely to favor the Republicans on the whole. Since the President's party generally loses seats in the midterm election, these are the people whose job is on the line and whose vote on the health bill may determine their fate.

Clearly Democrats near the top of the list (strongly Republican districts) with a small margin of victory have to be very careful. Walt Minnick (D-ID) is in an R+18 district and won by only 2%. He has to watch out. Similarly, Bobby Bright in an R+16 district and who won by only 1% is equally vulnerable. Frank Kratovil and Parker Griffith have similar problems.

On the other hand, Gene Taylor (D-MS) and Jim Matheson (D-UT) are from deeply red states and deeply red districts, but won their 2008 elections by 50% and 28% margins respectively, so clearly they are personally popular and will be very hard to dislodge.

Near the bottom of the list we find seven Californians from Dennis Cardoza to Adam Schiff who are in (strongly) Democratic districts and who won in 2008 by big margins. They are not vulnerable at all and their districts are not forcing them to be Blue Dogs. They are just conservative by nature and it seems to be working for them. People like that may be easier to peel off to vote for the health reform bill since nothing bad will happen to them if they do, whereas for Minnick, such a vote probably means the end of his career.

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button