Maloney Will Challenge Gillibrand
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Despite repeated requests from the entire Democratic Party establishment to stay put--from the President on down--as well
as her friends, Rep. Carolyn Maloney appears set to
challenge
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in a primary next year.
It will be a tough fight for her because party leaders are doing their best to cut off her sources of funding
and isolate her in every way they can. The President has already said that he would actively campaign for
Gillibrand in New York City, which is Maloney's base. While Maloney's argument is that she is more liberal
than Gillibrand, the senator has been rapidly changing some of the more conservative positions she took while
representing a rural upstate district and she has achieved one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate.
The bottom line is that Maloney feels it was her turn to become a senator and she clearly resents a newbie
getting the job.
Sununu Will Not Run for Senate in New Hampshire
Permalink
Former senator John Sununu has
decided
against running for the Senate, despite urgings from state Republicans.
He is probably the strongest candidate the Republicans had for the open seat being vacated
by Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH). The Democratic nominee, Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH), can thus breathe a
bit easier, although his fundraising to date has been weak.
Sixty is Not Forever
Permalink
The Democrats and friends now have 60 seats in the Senate, but the composition is not made of marble,
like much of the chamber itself. Senators come and go, even between elections.
The can die (e.g., Craig Thomas), resign (e.g., Hillary Clinton) or jump ship (e.g., Arlen Specter).
Generally, when a Senate seat is vacant, the governor appoints the new senator until the next even-numbered
year, although a few states (like Massachusetts) hold special elections. And in a couple of states
(e.g., Wyoming), the governor must appoint someone from a list drawn up by the previous senator's party
or at least a member of his party. But in all the other states, the governor has a free hand in picking the
new senator (sometimes too free, as recent events in Illinois have demonstrated).
With this in mind, one could ask: "Which states have at least one senator not from the governor's party?"
In the event of a vacancy in such a state, the governor might have the opportunity for mischief.
The states with at least one Democratic senator and a Republican governor are:
Alaska (Sarah Palin),
California (Arnold Schwarzenegger),
Connecticut (Jodi Rell),
Florida (Charlie Crist),
Hawaii (Linda Lingle),
Indiana (Mitch Daniels),
Lousiana (Bobby Jindal),
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty),
Nevada (Jim Gibbons),
Nebraska (Dave Heineman),
North Dakota (John Hoeven),
Rhode Island (Don Carcieri),
South Dakota (Mike Rounds),
and Vermont (James Douglas).
Are any Democratic seats in danger there?
The ones that come to mind first are the two in Hawaii.
Daniel Inouye is 84 and Daniel Akaka is also 84.
However, Hawaii law requires the (Republican) governor to pick someone from the previous senator's
party (although it is not clear how long said person has to have been a member of the party) and
she could certainly choose a weak and unknown Democrat--say the mayor of a small town--unlikely to
win a special election.
Sen Tim Johnson (D-SD) suffered cerebral bleeding in 2006 but has been making a slow recovery since then.
Senators don't live forever and being a senator gives you great medical care but even people
with great medical care can have heart attacks or be diagnosed with cancer.
What about Republican senators from states with a Democratic governor?
These are:
Iowa (Chet Culver),
Kansas (Mark Parkinson),
Kentucky (Steve Beshear),
Maine (John Baldacci),
Missouri (Jay Nixon),
New Hampshire (John Lynch),
North Carolina (Beverly Perdue),
Ohio (Ted Strickland),
Oklahoma (Brad Henry),
Tennessee (Phil Bredesen),
and
Wyoming (Dave Freudenthal),
Although Wyoming is one of the states that requires the governor to choose from a list drawn up
by the previous incumbent's party.
The only Republican senator who might conceivably be replaced by the other side's governor is Jim Bunning,
who has threatened to resign if Mitch McConnell really turns the screws on him to prevent his reelection,
but that is not a likely event. None of the Republican senators in these states is really elderly.
In addition, there are a number of states where a senator might be replaced by someone of his own party,
such as would happen if Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) should die or resign as the governor of West Virginia, Joe Manchin,
is a Democrat.
In general, it is surprising how many blue states have Republican governors or senators and how many red
states have Democratic governors or senators. Here is the list. It is located on the "Data galore" page in case
you wish to refer to it in the future.
Columns 2-4 refer to the 2008 presidential election.
The last three columns refer to the House delegation.
The seats marked with an asterisk are up for election in 2009 or 2010.
The data are available here in
.csv format
Hawaii |
72 |
27 |
45 |
Linda Lingle (R)* |
Daniel Inouye (D)* |
Daniel Akaka (D) |
2 |
0 |
2 |
Vermont |
67 |
30 |
37 |
James H. Douglas (R)* |
Patrick Leahy (D)* |
Bernie Sanders (I) |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Rhode Island |
63 |
35 |
28 |
Don Carcieri (R)* |
Jack Reed (D) |
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) |
2 |
0 |
2 |
New York |
63 |
36 |
27 |
David Paterson (D)* |
Chuck Schumer (D)* |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)* |
26 |
3 |
23 |
Maryland |
62 |
36 |
26 |
Martin O'Malley (D)* |
Barbara Mikulski (D)* |
Ben Cardin (D) |
7 |
1 |
6 |
Massachusetts |
62 |
36 |
26 |
Deval Patrick (D)* |
Ted Kennedy (D) |
John Kerry (D) |
10 |
0 |
10 |
Delaware |
62 |
37 |
25 |
Jack Markell (D) |
Tom Carper (D) |
Ted Kaufman (D)* |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
Illinois |
62 |
37 |
25 |
Pat Quinn (D)* |
Richard Durbin (D) |
Roland Burris (D)* |
12 |
7 |
5 |
California |
61 |
37 |
24 |
Arnie Schwarzenegger(R)* |
Dianne Feinstein (D) |
Barbara Boxer (D)* |
34 |
19 |
15 |
Connecticut |
61 |
38 |
23 |
M. Jodi Rell (R)* |
Chris Dodd (D)* |
Joe Lieberman (I) |
5 |
0 |
5 |
Maine |
58 |
40 |
18 |
John Baldacci (D)* |
Olympia Snowe (R) |
Susan Collins (R) |
2 |
0 |
2 |
Washington |
58 |
40 |
18 |
Christine Gregoire (D) |
Patty Murray (D)* |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
6 |
3 |
3 |
Oregon |
57 |
40 |
17 |
Ted Kulongoski (D)* |
Ron Wyden (D)* |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
4 |
1 |
3 |
Michigan |
57 |
41 |
16 |
Jennifer Granholm (D)* |
Carl Levin (D) |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
8 |
7 |
1 |
New Jersey |
57 |
42 |
15 |
Jon Corzine (D)* |
Frank Lautenberg (D) |
Bob Menendez (D) |
8 |
5 |
3 |
New Mexico |
57 |
42 |
15 |
Bill Richardson (D)* |
Jeff Bingaman (D) |
Tom Udall (D) |
3 |
0 |
3 |
Wisconsin |
56 |
42 |
14 |
Jim Doyle (D)* |
Herb Kohl (D) |
Russell Feingold (D)* |
5 |
3 |
2 |
Nevada |
55 |
43 |
12 |
Jim Gibbons (R)* |
Harry Reid (D)* |
John Ensign (R) |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Pennsylvania |
55 |
44 |
11 |
Ed Rendell (D)* |
Arlen Specter (D)* |
Bob Casey (D) |
12 |
7 |
5 |
Iowa |
54 |
44 |
10 |
Chet Culver (D)* |
Chuck Grassley (R)* |
Tom Harkin (D) |
3 |
2 |
1 |
Minnesota |
54 |
44 |
10 |
Tim Pawlenty (R)* |
Amy Klobuchar (D) |
Al Franken (D) |
5 |
3 |
2 |
Colorado |
54 |
45 |
9 |
Bill Ritter (D)* |
Mark Udall (D) |
Michael Bennet (D)* |
5 |
2 |
3 |
New Hampshire |
54 |
45 |
9 |
John Lynch (D)* |
Judd Gregg (R)* |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
2 |
0 |
2 |
Virginia |
53 |
46 |
7 |
Tim Kaine (D)* |
Jim Webb (D) |
Mark Warner (D) |
6 |
5 |
1 |
Ohio |
51 |
47 |
4 |
Ted Strickland (D)* |
George Voinovich (R)* |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
10 |
8 |
2 |
Florida |
51 |
48 |
3 |
Charlie Crist (R)* |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Mel Martinez (R)* |
10 |
15 |
-5 |
Indiana |
50 |
49 |
1 |
Mitchell Daniels (R) |
Dick Lugar (R) |
Evan Bayh (D)* |
5 |
4 |
1 |
North Carolina |
50 |
49 |
1 |
Beverly Perdue (D) |
Richard Burr (R)* |
Kay Hagan (D) |
8 |
5 |
3 |
|
Missouri |
48 |
49 |
-1 |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Kit Bond (R)* |
Claire McCaskill (D) |
4 |
5 |
-1 |
Montana |
47 |
50 |
-3 |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Max Baucus (D) |
Jon Tester (D) |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
Georgia |
47 |
52 |
-5 |
Sonny Perdue (R)* |
Saxby Chambliss (R) |
Johnny Isakson (R)* |
6 |
7 |
-1 |
North Dakota |
45 |
53 |
-8 |
John Hoeven (R) |
Kent Conrad (D) |
Byron Dorgan (D)* |
1 |
0 |
1 |
South Dakota |
45 |
53 |
-8 |
Mike Rounds (R)* |
Tim Johnson (D) |
John Thune (R)* |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Arizona |
45 |
54 |
-9 |
Jan Brewer(R)* |
John McCain (R)* |
Jon Kyl (R) |
5 |
3 |
2 |
South Carolina |
45 |
54 |
-9 |
Mark Sanford (R)* |
Lindsey Graham (R) |
Jim DeMint (R)* |
2 |
4 |
-2 |
Texas |
44 |
55 |
-11 |
Rick Perry (R)* |
Kay Hutchison (R) |
John Cornyn (R) |
12 |
20 |
-8 |
Mississippi |
43 |
56 |
-13 |
Haley Barbour (R) |
Thad Cochran (R) |
Roger Wicker (R) |
3 |
1 |
2 |
West Virginia |
43 |
56 |
-13 |
Joe Manchin III (D) |
Robert Byrd (D) |
Jay Rockefeller (D) |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Kansas |
42 |
57 |
-15 |
Mark Parkinson (D)* |
Sam Brownback (R) |
Pat Roberts (R) |
2 |
4 |
-2 |
Nebraska |
42 |
57 |
-15 |
David Heineman (R)* |
Ben Nelson (D) |
Mike Johanns (R) |
0 |
3 |
-3 |
Tennessee |
42 |
57 |
-15 |
Phil Bredesen (D)* |
Lamar Alexander (R) |
Bob Corker (R) |
5 |
4 |
1 |
Kentucky |
41 |
57 |
-16 |
Steve Beshear (D) |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Jim Bunning (R)* |
1 |
3 |
-2 |
Louisiana |
40 |
59 |
-19 |
Bobby Jindal (R) |
Mary Landrieu (D) |
David Vitter (R)* |
1 |
6 |
-5 |
Arkansas |
39 |
59 |
-20 |
Mike Beebe (D)* |
Blanche Lincoln (D)* |
Mark Pryor (D) |
3 |
1 |
2 |
Alabama |
39 |
60 |
-21 |
Robert Riley (R)* |
Richard Shelby (R)* |
Jeff Sessions (R) |
3 |
4 |
-1 |
Alaska |
38 |
59 |
-21 |
Sarah Palin (R)* |
Lisa Murkowski (R)* |
Mark Begich (D) |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
Idaho |
36 |
62 |
-26 |
Butch Otter (R)* |
James Risch (R) |
Michael Crapo (R)* |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Utah |
34 |
63 |
-29 |
Gary Herbert (R) |
Orrin Hatch (R) |
Robert Bennett (R)* |
1 |
2 |
-1 |
Oklahoma |
34 |
66 |
-32 |
Brad Henry (D)* |
James Inhofe (R) |
Tom Coburn (R)* |
1 |
4 |
-3 |
Wyoming |
33 |
65 |
-32 |
Dave Freudenthal (D)* |
Michael Enzi (R) |
John Barrasso (R) |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
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