Tedisco Takes the Lead in NY-20

Revised totals now put state Assembly minority leader Jim Tedisco (R) ahead of businessman Scott Murphy by 12 votes with 10,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted next week in the NY-20 special election. It is unlikely that either candidate will win by more than a few hundred votes at most.

An interesting question is what happens if Tedisco wins by, say, 200 votes. Suppose Murphy then says: "The voters have spoken. He won. I lost. It's over." What are the implications of such a statement on the long drawn out battle in Minnesota, where Norm Coleman is behind by more than 200 votes and refuses to concede, saying he will go to the U.S. Supreme Court if need be. How would a quick concession by Murphy (or Tedisco, for that matter) play among Minnesotans and voters nationally? Would it make Coleman (and the Republicans generally) look like sore losers? We may know in about a week as the votes should be counted by April 14.

Next Special Elections Favor the Democrats

While the Republicans might yet win the NY-20 election, their chances are much lower in three upcoming special elections. On April 7, Illinois voters will choose a replacement for Rahm Emanuel in IL-05. On May 19, California voters will decide who replaces former representative Hilda Solis in CA-32. Finally, on a date not yet set, former representative Ellen Tauscher will be replaced. Democrats are expected to sweep all three of these by wide margins.

Governors' Races in the Southeast

Here is the next installment of the 2009/2010 Governors' races, the Southeast.

Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. If northerners keep pouring into Fairfax and Prince William counties near D.C., it won't be long before Virginia is categorized as a Middle Atlantic state, like Maryland. Politically it has gone from a conservative Republican bastion to a swing state rapidly trending blue. Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine won the governorship in 2001 and 2005 respectively, and Democrats Jim Webb and Mark Warner won Senate seats in 2006 and 2008, respectively. The Democrats have also made gains in the House and Barack Obama carried the state by a healthy margin in 2008. Not surprisingly, there is a big battle for the Democratic nomination, with a three-way primary this June for the Nov. 2009 general election. Bill Clinton's fund-raiser-in-chief, Terry McAuliffe, is going to test the hypothesis that for $80 million you can buy a governorship. Opposing him--with much smaller budgets--are state legislators Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds.

South Carolina

		Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) is term limited and more interested in running for President than being governor anyway. In political terms, South Carolina is where the South starts now that Virginia is rapidly trending blue and North Carolina has become a swing state (Obama carried both). As a consequence, the Republican nominee is practically a shoo in, so a vigorously contested primary is likely. The likely contenders are Attorney General, Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov., Andre Bauer, and Rep. Greshman Barret, but others are contemplating jumping in. The Democratic bench here is exceedingly weak, so the nominee is likely to be either a former official or a state senator not up for reelection in 2010. While not completly hopeless (a Democrat, Jim Hodges, was governor 1999-2003), this is one of the Democrats' least likely pickups.

Georgia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. With Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA) term limited, anything could happen here. Republican hopefuls include Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Karen Handel, and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine. The only Democrat holding statewide office who is considering a race is Attorney General Thurbert Baker. The state is fairly red, however, so it is likely that the Republicans can hold the fort.

Florida

		Notes
Charlie Crist (R)	(D)	Florida is tricky. If popular Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) runs for releection, he'll almost certainly win. But NRSC chairman Sen. John Cornyn wants him to run for the Senate seat Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) is vacating. On the one hand, being governor of a big state like Florida is a far more powerful job than being a freshman senator in a minority that might not even have 40 members. On the other hand, balancing Florida's complex budget in times of recession will be no fun at all. So, if he runs for reelection, he'll win and the Republicans can gerrymander the state any way they want to, but the Democrats might then pick up that key 60th vote in the Senate (assuming Al Franken ultimately wins in Minnesota). If Crist runs for the Senate, he'll probably win but then the Democrats have a 50-50 shot at the governor's mansion and the ability to decapitate the gerrymander. Probably some Republicans are now sorry they have opposed cloning in the past. They need another Crist.

Tennessee

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Tennessee is a bit of an anomaly: while dependably Republican in both federal and state elections, the departing two-term gvernor is Democrat Phil Bredesen. If former U.S. senator Bill Frist (R) had decided to run, he would probably have won, but he has decided not to. Likely Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, and Rep. Zach Wamp. Since the outgoing governor is one of them, the Democrats certainly aren't going to abandon this race. One potential candidate is former representative Harold Ford, who ran for the Senate in 2006 and lost, but did achieve statewide name recognition in the process.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenge	Notes
Mike Beebe (D)	(R)	Gov. Mike Beebe (D-AR) is highly popular and is unlikely to attract any serious primary or general election challengers.

Alabama

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Gov. Bob Riley (R-AL) is term limited but Alabama is fairly blue at the state level, with the Democrats controlling both houses of the state legislature. However, at the federal level, the Republicans dominate, so the gubernational race is likely to be very competitive. Lt. Gov Jim Folsom, Jr. (D) (a former governor) and Rep. Artur Davis (D) are going to go at it in the Democratic primary. Davis is black, which will definitely help given the expected large black turnout in Democratic primaries. On the Republican side, there are numerous potential candidates among the statewide officers, including the Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer.

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