News from the Votemaster

History of Post-Convention Bounces

All candidates get a bounce in the polls after their convention. After all, millions of people have just seen the candidate in the best possible light, with no opposition and no criticism. This year Barack Obama got a solid bounce after the Democratic National Convention and now John McCain is enjoying one after the Republican National Convention. But this story in CQ Politics shows that these bounces usually last a couple of weeks and then dissipate. It examines 1960, 1976, 1988, 1992, and 2000 in detail.

Partisans Return Home

CNN's pollster and political analyst Bill Schneider wrote a piece with a similar theme: the conventions did what they were supposed to do, make sure that Democrats are all revved up over Obama and Republicans are all excited about McCain (and in his case, Palin). He notes that the national polls show a dead heat right now. He also looked at which candidate could best unite the country. Before the conventions it was Obama by 15 points. Now it is Obama by 16 points, essentially the same.

Palin's Record as Mayor in the Spotlight

Both the Washington Post and the NY Times have front-page stories today on how Sarah Palin governed Wasilla, AK, when she was mayor. WaPo: "Palin Cut Own Duties, Left Trail of Bad Blood." Times: "Throughout her career, Ms. Palin has pursued vendettas, fired officials who crossed her and blurred the line between government and personal grievance." Both stories were based on extensive interviews with Wasilla residents.

Summary of Troopergate

If nothing else, the surprise choice of Sarah Palin as Vice Presidential nominee has put more focus on the second slot than we have seen in years. Part of it is the troopergate scandal. If you have lost track of it, troopergate resulted from Sarah Palin's firing of Alaska's top cop for refusing to axe her estranged brother-in-law. Here is a complete summary. The legislative commission overseeing the investigation will meet tomorrow to decide whether to issue subpoenas. The Alaska attorney general's office has said if they are issued, it will attempt to block them. Palin originally said she would cooperate with reitred special prosecutor Steve Branchflower, but has subsequently told her aides not to testify and is now trying to block subpoenas. The Anchorage Daily News is the best source for news about Palin.

DCCC Adds Eight New Races to Red-to-Blue List

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added another eight congressional districts to its red-to-blue program, essentially districts where it intends to pour in some of its $55 million to defeat incumbent Republicans. Being added to the list not only means a direct injection of cash, but it gives the candidate credibility in the eyes of potential donors, since the party is putting its checkbook where its mouth is. Here are the eight additions

The NRCC has far less money and no blue-to-red program. In fact, chairman Tom Cole has focused on recruiting candidates from the pool of rich businessman who can finance their own race.

Today's Polls

We have six presidential polls today. The key ones are Minnesota, a fairly blue state where McCain has gotten some postconvention bounce. In one poll the candidates are tied and in the other Obama is ahead by a mere 2 points. Another key state is Nevada, where McCain has a 3 point lead now.

We also have a Senate poll in Minnesota.