News from the Votemaster

Comparison with 2004

The tables below show the states John Kerry won in 2004 on the left and the states George Bush won in 2004 on the right. The states in both columns are listed in order of the Obama-McCain score based on the recent 2008 Obama-McCain polling data. The states that are colored blue are the ones Obama now leads in; the red states are the ones McCain now leads in. As can be seen, Obama leads in all the Kerry states and some of the Bush states. He needs to pick up 17 electoral votes from the Bush states to tie and 18 to win.

Problems Expected on Election Day

Despite millions of people voting early, problems are still expected at polling places around the country according to voting experts. Many voters and poll workers will be using equipment they are not familiar with, lines will be long, ballots may be in short supply, and many people will have short fuses due to the expected difficulties. Thousands of lawyers are ready to sue at the drop of a ballot. Somehow, it would seem that the richest country in the history of the world could do better than this.

Previous elections were not without problems, though. The most contested state in 2000 was Florida, where Katherine Harris (R) was the secretary of state and ran the election as well as being a strong advocate for George Bush. In 2004, the most contested state was Ohio, where Ken Blackwell (R) was the secretary of state as well as being honorary co-chair of Bush's reelection committee. This time, the secretaries of state in seven key swing states are Democrats. These states are Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia. However, in other key states, including Florida and Colorado the secretaries of state are Republicans. In North Carolina, the chairman of the board of elections is a Democrat. Politico has a story on the subject. It is really horrible that partisan affiliation of the election officers is relevant, but unfortunately, public trust in the integrity of the elections is so low that it is an issue.

The Battle for Ohio Continues

Despite the expected voting problems, the candidates were out on the trail trying to convince the ever-decreasing pool of undecided voters to go their way. Ohio was a key target yesterday. The state has been hit hard by the economy, losing 300,000 manufacturing jobs this decade, but it is no slam dunk for Barack Obama. Both he and John McCain were campaigning hard here this weekend. Many pro-Obama college-educated voters have left the state, abortion is still a hot issue with the state's large ethnic population, and residual racism still exists in parts of the state. All in all, Obama is slightly ahead here, but a McCain win is certainly possible. George Bush won the state by 2%.

A Demographic View of the Swing States

William Frey and Ruy Teixeira did a demographic analysis that seems to explain why Obama is doing better in some swing states (e.g., Virginia and New Mexico) than in others (e.g, Ohio, and Missouri). It has to do with demographics. The states he does well in are low in white working class voters, and high in white college graduates and minorities. Here are figures taken from their presentation that make this point.

Will This Election Be Decided by the Courts Again?

The Florida 2000 election introduced a fundamentally new paradigm into elections: you campaign as hard as you can and if you don't like the results, you sue. Candidates now refer to a close election as being "within the margin of litigation." The combination of partisan election officials, a polarized country, and a "win-at-all-costs" attitude among the parties has led to a situation in which voters have increasingly little confidence in the electoral process. Prof. Rick Hasen, an election law specialist, has written a good article on elections and litigation.

Obama Still Leading in the National Polls

We have 10 national polls today. On average, Obama's lead is 7.1%. Here are the data.

Today's Polls

We have 23 presidential polls today. Nothing fundamental has changed over the past few days. Barack Obama still has small leads in Colorado, Florida, and Ohio. Missouri and North Carolina are tossups. New Mexico and Iowa seem safe for Obama.

We also have six Senate polls. Probably the biggest cliffhanger will be Minnesota, where it is deadlocked. One poll puts Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) ahead by 5 points and another puts his challenger, Al Franken, ahead by 4. However, in recent days, there have been allegations that Coleman received a gift of $75,000 which he did not report on his Senate disclosure form. Failure to report gifts is a federal felony, one which Sen. Ted. Stevens (R-AK) was convicted of last week. Coleman denies that he did anything wrong. If Coleman wins, the Senate ethics committee is likely to investigate him. In Kentucky, it looks like Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will survive.

We also have five House polls. Democrats seem poised to pick up all three New Mexico House seats as well as the Senate seat up for grabs this year. They already have the other Senate seat and the governorship. In MN-03, the Republicans have the edge on holding this open seat. In MN-06, where Michele Bachmann unleased fireworks on Hardball, it is a statistical tie.