News from the Votemaster

Does party registration say much about how a state will vote? In the South it doesn't, where people regularly register Democratic (because the Republicans freed the slaves) but vote Republican. But everywhere else there is a strong correlation between voter registration and actual voting. Since 2004, the number of registered Democrats has increased by something like a million and the number of registered Republicans has dropped by a similar number. In 2004, 21 of the 24 states outside the South that register voters by party went for the party with the most voters registered for it. That could be a portent for 2008. More here from Rhodes Cook.

Bob Benenson wrote a very insightful column about what has happened to the key speakers at the party conventions since 2004. It is quite amazing. Dennis Hastert, Bernie Kerik, Rudy Giuliani, George Allen, Bob Taft, Bill Frist, Rick Santorum, Lynn Swann, and Michael Steele are not quite the rising stars now they were four years ago. On the Democratic side, few of the speakers, such as Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Bill Richardson have gone gentle into that good night.

John Edwards has admitted having an affair with Rielle Hunter in 2006 but vehemently denies being the father of Hunter's child and is willing to take the necessary tests to prove it. Edwards' chances of being Obama's Veep kind of dropped a bit with this announcement. No doubt it will get a lot of play in the traditional media. It will be interesting to see if any enterprising reporter asks John McCain point blank: "Have you ever committed adultery?" It is a germane question because (1) Edwards adultery is big news and (2) McCain has made "moral character" the main issue of his campaign.

McCain may not be too keen to answer yes or no because the truth won't please the family values crowd. While he was a P.O.W. in Vietnam, his first wife, model Carol Shepp, was seriously injured in a horrific traffic accident in which she was thrown through the windshield. She didn't mention this in her letters to him in Vietnam to keep his morale up. When he got back and saw her 4 inches shorter, seriously overweight, and on crutches, he began having affairs. One piece of indisputable evidence is the fact that he obtained a license to marry wealthy beer heiress Cindy Hensley on March 6, 1980, while still legally married to Carol. Here is the L.A. Times story but if you type: McCain adultery to Google, you'll get 500,000 hits. Journalistic standards ought to require that if Edwards cheating on his sick wife is an indication of a deep moral flaw, then McCain cheating on his sick wife ought to be the same thing. And McCain is a candidate for President; Edwards is not.

Hillary Clinton is starting to campaign for Barack Obama. Yesterday she was in Nevada attacking John McCain on women's issues like equal pay for equal work, in attempt to get her supporters, especially older women, on board the Obama train. If she continues this throughout the Fall, she will not only unify the party but gain a lot of respect among Democrats for a potential run in 2012 (if Obama loses) or 2016 (if he wins).

We have three new polls today, one of them very significant. John McCain continues to hold a substantial lead over Barack Obama in the key state of Missouri. Rasmussen has McCain ahead in this bellwether state 48% to 41%. However, Rasmussen has Obama 7% ahead in Michigan, one of only two Kerry states McCain has a decent chance of winning. Obama can be elected without Missouri (if he does well in the West) but it is hard to see how McCain can win without Michigan.