Oct. 18

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Presidential polls today:	(None)
Dem pickups (vs. 2004):	(None)
GOP pickups (vs. 2004):	(None)

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News from the Votemaster

The cumlative polling data for the presidential primaries can be found here.

The Presidential candidates have filed their third quarter financial reports as reported by OpenSecrets.org and listed below in whole dollars. The data are also available in .csv format. What is striking is how the Democrats dominate the money race. The net worth of Hillary Clinton's campaign is $48 million, more than twice as much as the net worth of all the Republican campaigns combined. Even Barack Obama's campaign has 1.5 times as much as all the Republican campaigns combined. Not bad for a guy only 3 years removed from the Illinois state Senate.

However, the net worth figures are a bit misleading. Mitt Romney is last because he has a debt of $17 million, but that debt is entirely to himself. Sometime next year, Mitt the banker could say to Mitt the candidate: "You did a great job. Tell you what. You don't have to pay me back." It is harder to do that (not to mention, illegal) if the creditor is an arline or hotel chain Thus while Romney has raised $63 million, only $45 million came from other folks, which puts him on par with Rudy Giuliani, who hasn't invested his own money in his campaign.

The Ron Paul phenomenon is also noteworthy. His campaign's net worth exceeds that of McCain, Huckabee, Brownback, Hunter, Keyes, Tancredo, and Romney. And with a bit of luck, he could pass Fred Thompson for the #2 slot by the end of the year. We're talking about a fringe candidate here, after all; it is as if Mike Gravel were coming in just behind Obama on the Democratic side. Paul is clearly tapping into the mother lode of unhappiness among Republicans with their "top-tier" candidates. Paul is also the only Republican to oppose the war in Iraq and call for the troops to come home. On one of the debates he had to nerve to suggest that maybe our stationing troops in Saudi Arabia might just have something to do with "why they hate us." All the other candidates, led by Rudy Giuliani, began frothing at the mouth when he said this, but it is likely some Republicans watching the debate reacted by reaching for their credit cards. While Paul is not registering in the polls at all, things could change. Remember Harold Wilson's dictum: In politics, a week is a long time.

To anyone who has followed the money trail for a long time, these numbers are nothing short of astounding. Historically, the GOP outraised the Democrats by a huge margin. This year the Democratic presidential candidates are far outstripping the Republican candidates. And the picture is just as gloomy for the GOP in terms of Senate and House fundraising where the Democrats hold huge leads.

One can't but have the feeling that major Republican donors are holding back because they see the handwriting on the wall. When you give money to the eventual winner, you are buying access to the people in power. Politicians are the last bargain left in America. For $100,000 you can have lunch with a senator whenever you want to. You can't even buy a parking space in Manhattan for that. For $1 million, you get the President's personal cell phone number and for $10 million they'll change the colors in the American flag for you. If you bet on the loser, it is money down the toilet. This is why following the money race is imortant--it shows you what the big guys are thinking. Yes, small donations via the Internet are becoming more important, but the big bundlers are still where the real action is.

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

This map shows the current governors. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

This map shows the current Senate. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

This map shows the current House. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

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