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News from the Votemaster

We have three new Iowa polls there, all of which show there is a real horse race in both parties. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards are in a statistical tie there. Also noteworthy is that the nonviable candidates (Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel) get 16% of the vote. All of them are likely to miss the viability threshold of 15% on the first round of voting, so their supporters will have to make a second choice. Earlier polls showed that their second choice was Edwards by 2 to 1.

On the Republican side, the average of the three new Mason-Dixon, ARG, and Research 2000 polls put Romney ahead of Huckabee by 2%, well inside the margin of error.

The two parties have very different rules. To recap them once more, here, the Democrats come in and go to different corners of the room, one corner per candidate (if no octagonal rooms are available, they use two rectangular rooms), Then there is a plenary session in which a representative of each candidate makes a short pitch. These are followed by public voting. Candidates deemed not viable (i.e., getting less than 15% of the vote, are sent to the showers and their supporters get to pick a second choice. After the second round of caucuses, a final vote is taken and then delegates to county caucuses are chosen. In turn, these elect delegates to the district caucuses which elect delgates to the state caucus, which elects delegates to go to the DNC in Denver. It is a complex process designed to maximize citizen participation. The Republican caucuses are much simpler. People come in, vote by secret ballot, and go home. There is no viability threshold or second round.

While everyone is focused on who will win, it is likely that each winner will have won by a few thousand votes in a very unrepresentative state (98% white, mostly rural). To make the results even less meaningful (as if that were possible), turnout is usually about 100,000 for each party. As a benchmark, Bush got 752,000 votes in 2004 and Kerry got 742,000 votes, so we are looking at about 15% of the people who voted in 2004. The population of Iowa is 3 million, of whom 2 million are 18 or over. The polls often differ widely in Iowa because each pollster tries to figure out who is going to attend the caucuses (e.g., did you attend in 2004? do you read a newspaper every day? do you follow politics closely? etc.) and their screens differ wildly.

Have a happy election year and see you in 2008!

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Alabama Capital Survey Nov. 27 46% 25% 6% 20% 9% 5% 22% 17%
Alabama Capital Survey Oct. 25 40% 21% 14% 24% 12% 7% 26%  
Alabama ARG Aug. 2 38% 19% 17% 26% 16% 3% 31%  
Alabama Capital Survey July 19 33% 29% 9% 20% 11% 5% 34%  
Alabama Capital Survey May 1 37% 21% 9% 29% 23% 7%    
Alabama U. of South Alabama Apr. 19 33% 25% 12% 28% 23% 3%    
Alabama Capital Survey Mar. 6 35% 19% 9% 28% 23% 3%    
Alabama ARG Feb. 13 44% 13% 11% 31% 19% 3%    
Alabama Capital Survey Jan. 17 27% 14% 19% 20% 24% 3%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Nov. 15 44% 14%   20% 18% 11% 10% 3%
Arizona ARG Oct. 9 41% 14% 16% 19% 26% 18% 15%  
Arizona ARG July 26 39% 25% 8% 23% 32% 7% 15%  
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll May 29 26% 22% 7% 20% 35% 7%    
Arizona Arizona State U. Apr. 22 25% 20% 18% 27% 32% 11%    
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Mar. 21 27% 20% 9% 25% 34% 11%    
Arizona Arizona State U. Feb. 25 28% 24% 14% 25% 44% 6%    
Arizona ARG Feb. 13 33% 24% 13% 21% 45% 2%    
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Jan. 22 32% 15% 18% 13% 40% 11%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Arkansas ARG Mar. 19 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%   40%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
California Field Poll Dec. 17 36% 22% 13% 25% 12% 15% 6% 17%
California SurveyUSA Dec. 16 49% 30% 14% 28% 14% 16% 13% 20%
California Public Policy Inst. Dec. 4 44% 20% 12% 24% 11% 15% 10% 12%
California SurveyUSA Dec. 2 50% 24% 16% 32% 18% 14% 13% 14%
California Field Poll Oct. 21 45% 20% 11% 25% 12% 13% 12%  
California San Jose State U. Oct. 8 42% 20% 14% 34% 17% 11% 7%  
California Field Poll Sep. 11 41% 23% 14% 22% 15% 16% 16%  
California Field Poll Aug. 12 35% 22% 16% 35% 9% 14% 13% 4%
California ARG Aug. 2 35% 22% 16% 30% 7% 18% 18%  
California Public Policy Inst. June 19 41% 25% 12% 31% 16% 13% 13%  
California ARG May 8 37% 28% 15% 27% 24% 11%    
California Field Poll Mar. 31 41% 28% 13% 36% 24% 7%    
California SurveyUSA Mar. 6 44% 31% 10% 41% 23% 8%    
California Datamar Feb. 15 34% 24% 16% 41% 17% 11%    
California ARG Jan. 17 36% 33% 6% 33% 18% 3%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Colorado ARG Sep. 18 36% 20% 19% 20% 12% 8% 25% 2%
Colorado ARG July 18 39% 22% 10% 35% 11% 9% 20%  
Colorado ARG Apr. 2 34% 23% 17% 25% 23% 9%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Connecticut Quinnipiac Nov. 5 45% 19% 7% 41% 12% 13% 7% 4%
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 43% 16% 8% 42% 14% 9% 10% 2%
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. May 7 28% 20% 8% 36% 15% 9%    
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Feb. 12 33% 21% 5% 43% 27% 4%    
Connecticut ARG Feb. 6 40% 8% 10% 32% 21% 14%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Delaware Fairleigh Dickinson U. Feb. 25 34% 19% 10%          
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Florida Quinnipiac U. Dec. 18 43% 21% 19% 28% 13% 20% 8% 21%
Florida SurveyUSA Dec. 16       29% 10% 20% 8% 24%
Florida Rasmussen Dec. 13 45% 17% 14% 19% 6% 23% 9% 27%
Florida Datamar Dec. 13 44% 20% 14% 21% 10% 19% 10% 25%
Florida SurveyUSA Dec. 4 54% 24% 13% 32% 11% 15% 14% 18%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Dec. 3 53% 17% 7% 30% 9% 12% 10% 11%
Florida Opinion Research Nov. 26 51% 21% 11% 38% 11% 17% 11% 9%
Florida Mason-Dixon Nov. 14 42% 15% 12% 36% 10% 15% 12% 8%
Florida Schroth Eldon Nov. 7 48% 24% 8% 36% 12% 19% 8% 9%
Florida SurveyUSA Nov. 5 56% 19% 14% 34% 10% 17% 22% 8%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Oct. 22 43% 18% 12% 27% 8% 17% 19% 8%
Florida Insider Advantage Oct. 19 53% 19% 9% 33% 9% 17% 13%  
Florida Mason-Dixon Sep. 18 47% 19% 9% 24% 9% 13% 23%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Sep. 9 42% 13% 9% 28% 10% 11% 17%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 43% 13% 8% 26% 11% 9% 19%  
Florida Mason-Dixon July 26 31% 17% 12% 21% 11% 7% 18%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. July 16 36% 14% 9% 30% 10% 9% 18%  
Florida ARG July 15 45% 25% 9% 33% 7% 12% 27%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. June 25 43% 16% 11% 29% 13% 9% 29%  
Florida Zogby June 6 36% 16% 11% 31% 12% 12% 10%  
Florida Schroth/Polling Co. May 9 42% 19% 12% 29% 15% 14%    
Florida ARG May 8 45% 17% 15% 31% 18% 11%    
Florida Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 13% 11% 38% 15% 7%    
Florida U. of North Florida Apr. 13 35% 20% 9% 31% 14% 6%    
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 27 36% 13% 11% 35% 15% 5%    
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 38% 13% 6% 38% 18% 6%    
Florida Quinnipiac U. Feb. 4 49% 13% 7% 29% 23% 6%    
Florida ARG Jan. 9 30% 14% 15% 30% 15% 2%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Georgia ARG Aug. 6 35% 25% 17% 20% 7% 14% 27% 3%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Idaho Greg Smith July 13 31% 33% 15% 20% 14% 38% 18%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Illinois Market Shares Dec. 13 25% 50% 7% 23% 12% 14% 11% 21%
Illinois ARG July 9 33% 37% 10% 30% 12% 11% 21% 2%
Illinois ARG Jan. 14 30% 36% 5% 33% 24% 12%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Iowa Mason-Dixon Dec. 28 23% 22% 24% 5% 13% 27% 14% 23%
Iowa ARG Dec. 28 31% 24% 24% 6% 11% 32% 7% 23%
Iowa Research 2000 Dec. 27 28% 29% 29% 8% 8% 27% 11% 34%
Iowa LA Times Dec. 26 29% 26% 25% 6% 11% 23% 11% 37%
Iowa ARG Dec. 23 34% 19% 20% 14% 17% 21% 3% 23%
Iowa Opinion Research Dec. 18 30% 28% 26% 11% 9% 25% 9% 33%
Iowa Rasmussen Dec. 17 31% 27% 22% 8% 14% 27% 8% 28%
Iowa Insider Advantage Dec. 17 24% 27% 26% 5% 7% 28% 11% 25%
Iowa Washington Post Dec. 17 29% 33% 20%          
Iowa Research 2000 Dec. 13 24% 33% 24% 9% 7% 22% 9% 31%
Iowa Financial Dynamics Dec. 12 27% 27% 22% 12% 5% 23% 8% 36%
Iowa Rasmussen Dec. 10 29% 26% 22% 8% 6% 23% 8% 39%
Iowa Mason-Dixon Dec. 6 27% 25% 21% 5% 7% 20% 11% 32%
Iowa Princeton Survey Dec. 6 29% 35% 18% 9% 6% 17% 10% 39%
Iowa Zogby Dec. 1 27% 24% 21% 12% 5% 26% 8% 25%
Iowa ARG Nov. 29 25% 27% 23% 9% 9% 28% 14% 27%
Iowa Selzer Nov. 28 25% 28% 23% 13% 7% 24% 9% 29%
Iowa Rasmussen Nov. 27 27% 25% 24% 12% 4% 25% 11% 28%
Iowa Princeton Survey Nov. 25 31% 26% 19%          
Iowa Washington Post Nov. 18 26% 30% 22% 13% 6% 28% 15% 24%
Iowa Iowa State U. Nov. 18 31% 20% 24% 16% 8% 25% 9% 22%
Iowa ARG Nov. 14 27% 21% 20% 11% 10% 26% 11% 24%
Iowa Research 2000 Nov. 14 27% 25% 21% 16% 6% 27% 10% 18%
Iowa NY Times Nov. 11 25% 22% 23% 17% 13% 15% 13% 17%
Iowa Zogby Nov. 7 28% 25% 21% 14% 6% 33% 12% 8%
Iowa ARG Oct. 29 32% 22% 15% 16% 14% 27% 8%  
Iowa U. of Iowa Oct. 24 29% 27% 20% 13% 6% 36% 11%  
Iowa Rasmussen Oct. 14 33% 21% 22% 13% 6% 25% 19%  
Iowa Selzer Oct. 3 29% 22% 23% 11% 7% 29% 18%  
Iowa Princeton Survey Sep. 27 31% 25% 21% 15% 7% 25% 16%  
Iowa LA Times Sep. 10 28% 19% 23% 16% 7% 28% 16%  
Iowa ARG Aug. 29 28% 23% 20% 17% 5% 27% 13%  
Iowa Zogby Aug. 18 30% 19% 23% 14% 6% 33% 12%  
Iowa U. of Iowa Aug. 5 25% 19% 26% 11% 3% 28% 8%  
Iowa Selzer July 31 26% 26% 27% 14% 26% 8% 13%  
Iowa ARG July 30 30% 15% 21% 22% 17% 21% 13%  
Iowa Research 2000 July 25 22% 16% 27% 13% 10% 25% 14%  
Iowa ARG June 30 32% 13% 29% 18% 13% 25% 14%  
Iowa Mason-Dixon June 16 22% 18% 21% 15% 6% 25% 17%  
Iowa Selzer May 16 21% 23% 29% 17% 18% 30%    
Iowa Research 2000 May 15 28% 22% 26% 17% 18% 16%    
Iowa Zogby May 15 24% 22% 26% 16% 18% 17%    
Iowa ARG Apr. 30 23% 19% 27% 19% 26% 14%    
Iowa U. of Iowa Mar. 31 28% 19% 34% 21% 20% 17%    
Iowa Zogby Mar. 26 25% 23% 27% 25% 19% 11%    
Iowa ARG Mar. 23 34% 16% 33% 29% 29% 10%    
Iowa Zogby Feb. 9 24% 24% 18% 19% 17% 5%    
Iowa Zogby Jan. 16 16% 27% 17% 19% 17% 5%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Kansas Research 2000 May 23 27% 22% 21% 13% 13% 17% 7% 1%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Maine Critical Insights Oct. 30 46% 10% 5% 11% 7% 15% 9%  
Maine Critical Insights Apr. 27 39% 22% 16% 24% 21% 12%    
Maine ARG Feb. 6 41% 14% 17% 33% 22% 13%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Maryland Washington Post Oct. 22 48% 29% 8% 39% 18% 10% 14% 2%
Maryland OpinionWorks Aug. 26 32% 19% 10% 32% 13% 8% 12%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Massachusetts Suffolk U. Apr. 15 32% 18% 19%          
Massachusetts ARG Feb. 6 35% 24% 19% 29% 30% 7%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Michigan EPIC/MRA Dec. 19       12% 10% 21% 4% 19%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Nov. 13 49% 18% 15% 28% 12% 25% 13% 9%
Michigan ARG Sep. 4 43% 21% 14% 13% 9% 39% 12% 4%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 31 40% 21% 16% 23% 15% 25% 16%  
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 13 45% 26% 16% 19% 16% 12% 22%  
Michigan EPIC/MRA June 13 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24% 8%  
Michigan ARG May 7 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24%    
Michigan EPIC/MRA Mar. 18 45% 29% 16% 26% 30% 21%    
Michigan ARG Mar. 4 35% 30% 14% 30% 35%      
Michigan EPIC/MRA Feb. 4 49% 20% 8% 32% 28% 8%    
Michigan ARG Jan. 7 30% 30% 17% 34% 24% 10%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Minnesota Princeton Survey Sep. 23 47% 22% 16% 27% 22% 5% 16% 2%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Missouri Research 2000 Nov. 15 36% 21% 20% 24% 14% 17% 16% 12%
Missouri ARG Aug. 6 40% 15% 22% 23% 14% 11% 22%  
Missouri ARG Jan. 9 30% 18% 17% 18% 31% 2%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Nevada ARG Dec. 6 45% 18% 14% 17% 7% 29% 5% 23%
Nevada Mason-Dixon Dec. 5 34% 26% 9% 25% 7% 20% 9% 17%
Nevada Research 2000 Nov. 19 45% 20% 12% 29% 8% 22% 15% 6%
Nevada Opinion Research Nov. 13 51% 23% 11% 28% 8% 20% 13% 5%
Nevada Zogby Nov. 10 37% 19% 15% 28% 8% 20% 13% 5%
Nevada Mason-Dixon Oct. 11 39% 21% 9% 28% 8% 18% 23%  
Nevada Research 2000 Aug. 16 33% 19% 15% 18% 8% 28% 18%  
Nevada Mason-Dixon June 22 39% 17% 12% 17% 8% 20% 25%  
Nevada ARG June 19 40% 16% 16% 21% 16% 23% 16%  
Nevada Mason-Dixon May 1 37% 12% 13% 12% 19% 15%    
Nevada Zogby Apr. 12 35% 21% 15% 37% 15% 15%    
Nevada Research 2000 Mar. 8 32% 20% 11% 38% 18% 4%    
Nevada Research 2000 Feb. 2 33% 19% 15% 18% 8% 28% 18%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New Hampshire LA Times Dec. 26 30% 32% 18% 14% 21% 34% 4% 9%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Dec. 20 28% 30% 14% 14% 25% 28% 3% 10%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Dec. 19       8% 14% 27% 8% 28%
New Hampshire Gallup Dec. 19 32% 32% 18% 11% 27% 34% 4% 9%
New Hampshire ARG Dec. 19 38% 24% 15% 16% 26% 26% 4% 11%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Dec. 17 38% 26% 14% 16% 22% 34% 1% 10%
New Hampshire Opinion Dynamics Dec. 13 34% 25% 15% 16% 20% 33% 2% 11%
New Hampshire Research 2000 Dec. 12 31% 32% 18% 18% 17% 31% 3% 9%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Dec. 11 28% 31% 17% 17% 19% 31% 4% 10%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Dec. 10 33% 26% 15% 17% 19% 31% 4% 10%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Dec. 10 31% 30% 16% 19% 19% 32% 1% 9%
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon Dec. 6 30% 27% 10% 17% 16% 25% 6% 11%
New Hampshire Zogby Dec. 3 32% 21% 16% 15% 17% 35% 3% 10%
New Hampshire Washington Post Dec. 3 35% 29% 17% 16% 20% 37% 4% 9%
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Dec. 2 37% 24% 18% 18% 18% 31% 4% 11%
New Hampshire Opiinion Dynamics Nov. 29 30% 23% 12% 19% 21% 29% 4% 7%
New Hampshire ARG Nov. 29 34% 23% 17% 22% 11% 36% 3% 13%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Nov. 29 33% 26% 15% 15% 15% 34% 3% 14%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Nov. 27 34% 22% 15% 20% 13% 34% 2% 7%
New Hampshire Princeton Survey Nov. 25 38% 19% 15% 16% 18% 33% 4% 5%
New Hampshire NY Times Nov. 12 37% 22% 9% 16% 16% 34% 5% 6%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Nov. 7 35% 21% 15% 20% 17% 32% 3% 5%
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Nov. 6 38% 26% 14% 23% 14% 34% 5% 7%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Nov. 5 34% 24% 15% 17% 16% 32% 7% 10%
New Hampshire ARG Oct. 29 40% 22% 10% 23% 17% 30% 5%  
New Hampshire Saint Anselm Coll. Oct. 21 43% 22% 14% 22% 15% 32% 5%  
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Oct. 9 43% 21% 12% 21% 17% 27% 10%  
New Hampshire Zogby Sep. 28 38% 23% 12% 21% 16% 24% 7%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Sep. 24 41% 19% 11% 22% 17% 23% 12%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Sep. 14 36% 18% 12% 23% 14% 30% 8%  
New Hampshire LA Times Sep. 10 35% 16% 16% 23% 12% 28% 11%  
New Hampshire ARG Aug. 29 37% 17% 14% 23% 12% 27% 8%  
New Hampshire Hart/McLaughlin July 26 36% 19% 15% 17% 16% 33% 13%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire July 17 36% 27% 9% 20% 12% 34% 13%  
New Hampshire Research 2000 July 11 33% 25% 15% 21% 18% 28% 11%  
New Hampshire ARG June 30 34% 25% 11% 19% 21% 27% 10%  
New Hampshire Suffolk U. June 24 37% 19% 9% 22% 13% 26% 13%  
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon June 7 26% 21% 18% 15% 16% 27% 12%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. June 6 41% 17% 15% 18% 17% 27% 9%  
New Hampshire Zogby May 16 28% 26% 15% 19% 19% 35%    
New Hampshire ARG Apr. 29 37% 14% 26% 17% 29% 24%    
New Hampshire Zogby Apr. 3 29% 23% 23% 19% 25% 25%    
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Apr. 3 27% 20% 21% 29% 29% 17%    
New Hampshire ARG Mar. 23 37% 23% 20% 19% 23% 17%    
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Mar. 12 32% 25% 16% 28% 29% 22%    
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Feb. 28 28% 26% 17% 37% 27% 17%    
New Hampshire Zogby/UNH Feb. 8 27% 23% 13% 27% 28% 13%    
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 17 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% 13%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Dec. 9 51% 17% 7% 38% 12% 7% 4% 8%
New Jersey Rutgers-Eagleton Oct. 23 52% 21% 8% 54% 12% 6% 6% 3%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 46% 20% 9% 48% 12% 7% 12% 1%
New Jersey Rutgers/Eagleton Aug. 7 45% 21% 16% 61% 10% 5% 8%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. July 2 46% 19% 8% 48% 12% 7% 10%  
New Jersey Monmouth U. Apr. 16 41% 22% 13% 49% 19% 6%    
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Apr. 16 38% 16% 9% 49% 18% 6%    
New Jersey Fairleigh Dickinson U. Mar. 4 46% 18% 10% 59% 20% 6%    
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Feb. 25 41% 19% 5% 58% 15% 2%    
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Jan. 22 30% 8% 16% 39% 21% 5%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New Mexico Rsearch and Polling Sep. 6 17% 8% 8% 38% 20% 7%    
New Mexico ARG Jan. 13 22% 17% 12% 38% 20% 7%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New York Quinnipiac U. Dec. 10 55% 17% 7% 34% 11% 5% 7% 12%
New York Siena Coll. Dec. 6 50% 19% 10% 48% 15% 7% 7% 7%
New York Blum+Weprin Nov. 3 45% 19% 7% 42% 11% 8% 9% 6%
New York Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 49% 12% 11% 45% 9% 7% 12%  
New York Siena Coll. Sep. 16 42% 17% 11% 47% 16% 6% 9%  
New York Siena Coll. July 28 48% 14% 7% 40% 13% 7% 11%  
New York Quinnipiac U. June 17 44% 14% 6% 46% 8% 3% 14%  
New York Siena Coll. Apr. 20 39% 17% 11% 47% 16% 8%    
New York Blum+Weprin Apr. 7 49% 17% 11% 56% 15% 5%    
New York ARG Apr. 2 41% 20% 16% 50% 14% 7%    
New York Quinnipiac U. Apr. 2 44% 14% 9% 52% 13% 6%    
New York Siena Coll. Mar. 22 43% 11% 7% 31% 20% 6%    
New York Quinnipiac U. Feb. 11 47% 16% 7% 51% 17% 1%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
North Carolina Public Policy Polling Dec. 3 31% 24% 26%          
North Carolina Elon U. Sep. 27 37% 18% 18% 21% 12% 8% 28% 2%
North Carolina Elon U. Apr. 19 20% 20% 26% 32% 22% 10%    
North Carolina ARG Jan. 15 26% 19% 30% 34% 26% 2%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Dec. 3 45% 19% 13% 29% 13% 7% 7% 10%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Nov. 11 42% 17% 14% 27% 14% 11% 13% 7%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 47% 19% 11% 29% 10% 8% 17% 4%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Sep. 3 44% 15% 11% 23% 17% 11% 15%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 41% 16% 11% 29% 11% 8% 11%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. July 9 35% 17% 13% 24% 14% 8% 18%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. June 25 46% 14% 15% 26% 16% 8% 18%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. May 13 38% 19% 11% 23% 17% 11%    
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 37% 14% 17% 23% 21% 6%    
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 19 32% 22% 11% 31% 20% 6%    
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 32% 19% 13% 35% 18% 3%    
Ohio U. of Akron Feb. 21 42% 16% 17% 36% 28% 6%    
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Jan. 28 38% 11% 13% 30% 22% 4%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Oklahoma Sooner Poll Dec. 19 34% 15% 25% 11% 17% 9% 8% 29%
Oklahoma Sooner Apr. 30 29% 13% 29% 32% 23% 6% 15% 2%
Oklahoma ARG Feb. 13 40% 15% 16% 37% 21% 2%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Oregon Riley Research Aug. 15 26% 18% 17% 16% 8% 15% 11% 3%
Oregon Riley Research Mar. 13 31% 21% 8% 33% 20% 5%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Dec. 3 43% 15% 9% 27% 13% 6% 6% 13%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Nov. 5 46% 15% 11% 29% 12% 7% 11% 6%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 41% 14% 11% 32% 13% 8% 13% 2%
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. Sep. 2 38% 21% 17% 32% 19% 12% 11%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 20 42% 12% 8% 31% 13% 7% 8%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 35% 19% 10% 29% 16% 3% 14%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. June 25 38% 22% 10% 29% 16% 4% 15%  
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. June 4 40% 18% 21% 29% 29% 12%    
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 14% 13% 29% 17% 5%    
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 25 36% 17% 9% 33% 18% 5%    
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 29% 18% 11% 43% 17% 6%    
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Feb. 20 42% 16% 11% 37% 29% 6%    
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Feb. 5 37% 11% 11% 30% 20% 4%    
Pennsylvania ARG Jan. 8 32% 12% 13% 35% 25% 1%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Rhode Island Brown U. Sep. 9 35% 16% 7%          
Rhode Island Brown U. Jan. 27 33% 8% 15%          
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
South Carolina SurveyUSA Dec. 18 41% 39% 17% 12% 16% 18% 15% 28%
South Carolina CBS News Dec. 17 34% 35% 13% 12% 11% 20% 10% 28%
South Carolina Rasmussen Dec. 16 33% 33% 17% 11% 12% 23% 12% 23%
South Carolina Opinion Research Dec. 12 42% 34% 16% 16% 13% 16% 17% 24%
South Carolina SurveyUSA Dec. 9 44% 40% 11% 13% 10% 19% 18% 30%
South Carolina Mason-Dixon Dec. 6 28% 25% 18% 17% 10% 15% 14% 20%
South Carolina Rasmussen Dec. 4 36% 34% 13% 12% 9% 18% 18% 25%
South Carolina Insider Advantage Dec. 4 22% 28% 14% 17% 10% 14% 17% 23%
South Carolina ARG Nov. 29 41% 19% 18% 23% 10% 21% 13% 18%
South Carolina Clemson U. Nov. 27 19% 17% 12% 9% 11% 17% 15% 13%
South Carolina Princeton Survey Nov. 25 45% 31% 10%          
South Carolina SurveyUSA Nov. 11 47% 33% 10% 26% 14% 20% 18% 12%
South Carolina ARG Oct. 29 41% 19% 18% 23% 32% 10% 13% 5%
South Carolina Winthrop U. Oct. 28 33% 23% 10% 17% 9% 17% 18%  
South Carolina Rasmussen Sep. 27 43% 30% 10% 20% 11% 15% 24%  
South Carolina LA Times Sep. 10 45% 27% 7% 23% 15% 9% 26%  
South Carolina ARG Aug. 29 32% 21% 24% 26% 12% 9% 21%  
South Carolina Clemson U. Aug. 29 26% 16% 10% 18% 15% 11% 19%  
South Carolina ARG July 30 29% 33% 18% 28% 10% 7% 27%  
South Carolina Opinion Research July 18 27% 27% 17% 30% 21% 6% 18%  
South Carolina ARG June 30 37% 22% 21% 22% 23% 8% 19%  
South Carolina Mason-Dixon June 15 25% 34% 12% 21% 7% 11% 25%  
South Carolina Winthrop U. May 27 29% 21% 11% 19% 14% 12% 6%  
South Carolina ARG Apr. 30 36% 24% 18% 23% 36% 6%    
South Carolina Hamilton/McHenry Apr. 19 31% 27% 16% 15% 24% 10%    
South Carolina Zogby Apr. 17 33% 26% 21% 19% 22% 10%    
South Carolina ARG Feb. 27 36% 25% 20% 29% 35% 5%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Texas U. of Texas May 7 33% 21% 8% 23% 27% 6% 11%  
Texas ARG Mar. 19 34% 32% 11% 30% 20% 13%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Utah Dan Jones Oct. 4       8% 6% 65% 3% 2%
Utah ARG Feb. 13 31% 18% 9% 13% 21% 40%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Vermont Research 2000 Oct. 19 47% 15% 10% 44% 13% 7% 12% 2%
Vermont ARG Feb. 6 37% 19% 14% 29% 30% 7%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Virginia Washington Post Oct. 8 49% 25% 11% 34% 20% 9% 19%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Washington U. of Washington Oct. 28 44% 29% 16% 34% 19% 15% 16% 9%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
West Virginia ARG Apr. 2 37% 22% 19% 29% 33% 8%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Wisconsin U. of Wisconsin Dec. 5 39% 26% 15% 25% 15% 5% 30% 8%
Wisconsin St. Norbert Coll. Nov. 8 43% 25% 15% 32% 13% 8% 14% 11%
Wisconsin St. Norbert Coll. Apr. 17 33% 30% 18% 26% 24% 9%    

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

Preview of the 2008 races:           President       Senate       House      

This map shows the current governors:



This map shows the current Senate:



This map shows the current House:



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