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News from the Votemaster

Here is the national money race as of the most-recent FEC filings. The Democrats are way ahead in the Senate and House fundraising efforts and the RNC is way ahead of the DNC. The latter pot of money can be spent on anything, often the presidential race. This money race was highlighted yesterday when Republican Bob Latta won a special election for Congress in OH-05, a solidly Republican district (PVI R+10), but the NRCC had to spend about $500,000, which it can ill-afford to spare, to hang onto this seat in very friendly territory. With $27 million in the bank, the DCCC could spend $500,000 in each of more than 50 districts. When you realize that the median amount of money current incumbents have raised so far is $400,000, you begin to appreciate the consequences of these numbers. In potentially close races, the DCCC could double the Democrat's cash; the NRCC is in no position to match this. Realizing this, Tom Cole has been looking for rich businessmen to run for Congress in the hopes they could pay for their own campaigns. The main problem with this strategy is that historically, an outsider who has never held public office generally fails in an attempt to buy a seat in Congress.

Committee Chairman Oct. 31 banked Oct. 31 Debts Net
DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) $23,400,000 $2,500,000 $20,900,000
DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) $29,212,546 $2,082,500 $27,130,046
DNC (Democratic National Committee) Howard Dean $3,257,857 $1,735,792 $1,522,065
        $49,552,111
 
NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee) Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) $9,500,000 $0 $9,500,000
NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) $2,556,566 $3,625,000 -$1,068,434
RNC (Republican National Committee) Mike Duncan $17,633,967 $0 $17,633,967
$26,065,533

Now let's look at the presidential polling data. It's pretty hard to read the tea leaves at this point. The top three Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards all have a shot at winning Iowa and Clinton and Obama are pretty close in New Hampshire. But nationally, Clinton is still way ahead. She could definitely survive a loss in Iowa and also New Hampshire, but losses for Obama and Edwards in those two would be the end for them unless the biggest loser pulled out quickly after a New Hampshire loss and threw his support to the other one. All in all, Clinton is still holding up well.

On the Republican side, it's anybody's guess. It now looks like Mike Huckabee is heading towards a dramatic landslide win in Iowa. But being the darling of 20 or 30 thousand elderly, conservative, religious women in Iowa (what a Huckabee victory would represent) does not a President make. An equally dramatic loss to Romney in New Hampshire (or a surprise upset win there by McCain) would make it impossible to predict what's next.

It is rarely mentioned in the media, but Huckabee is, for all intents and purposes, broke. He had $603,000 net in his last filing report (Oct. 31). In contrast, look at what the other leading candidates had (net): Clinton ($48 million), Obama ($35 million), Edwards ($12 million), Giuliani ($17 million), McCain ($2 million), Thompson ($6 million), and Paul ($5 million). Romney had a net of -$8 million because he loaned himself $17 million, but unlike the other candidates, who eventually have to pay their debts back, he does not. In practical terms, what does Huckabee's finances mean? Well, for starters, he can't run TV ads anywhere expensive. He also flies everywhere cattle class on commercial airlines whereas the other candidates charter private jets. This difference is not only a matter of comfort, but if you are trying to make campaign stops in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in the same day (to get on the local news in each state), that is well nigh impossible without your own plane. Of course, if Huckabee wins big in Iowa, which looks likely, the money will come rolling in.

The polling data is also available in .csv format here.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Alabama Capital Survey Nov. 27 46% 25% 6% 20% 9% 5% 22% 17%
Alabama Capital Survey Oct. 25 40% 21% 14% 24% 12% 7% 26%  
Alabama ARG Aug. 2 38% 19% 17% 26% 16% 3% 31%  
Alabama Capital Survey July 19 33% 29% 9% 20% 11% 5% 34%  
Alabama Capital Survey May 1 37% 21% 9% 29% 23% 7%    
Alabama U. of South Alabama Apr. 19 33% 25% 12% 28% 23% 3%    
Alabama Capital Survey Mar. 6 35% 19% 9% 28% 23% 3%    
Alabama ARG Feb. 13 44% 13% 11% 31% 19% 3%    
Alabama Capital Survey Jan. 17 27% 14% 19% 20% 24% 3%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Nov. 15 44% 14% 11% 20% 18% 11% 10% 3%
Arizona ARG Oct. 9 41% 14% 16% 19% 26% 18% 15%  
Arizona ARG July 26 39% 25% 8% 23% 32% 7% 15%  
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll May 29 26% 22% 7% 20% 35% 7%    
Arizona Arizona State U. Apr. 22 25% 20% 18% 27% 32% 11%    
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Mar. 21 27% 20% 9% 25% 34% 11%    
Arizona Arizona State U. Feb. 25 28% 24% 14% 25% 44% 6%    
Arizona ARG Feb. 13 33% 24% 13% 21% 45% 2%    
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Jan. 22 32% 15% 18% 13% 40% 11%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Arkansas ARG Mar. 19 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%   40%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
California SurveyUSA Dec. 2 50% 24% 16% 32% 18% 14% 13% 14%
California Field Poll Oct. 21 45% 20% 11% 25% 12% 13% 12%  
California San Jose State U. Oct. 8 42% 20% 14% 34% 17% 11% 7%  
California Field Poll Sep. 11 41% 23% 14% 22% 15% 16% 16%  
California Field Poll Aug. 12 35% 22% 16% 35% 9% 14% 13% 4%
California ARG Aug. 2 35% 22% 16% 30% 7% 18% 18%  
California Public Policy Inst. June 19 41% 25% 12% 31% 16% 13% 13%  
California ARG May 8 37% 28% 15% 27% 24% 11%    
California Field Poll Mar. 31 41% 28% 13% 36% 24% 7%    
California SurveyUSA Mar. 6 44% 31% 10% 41% 23% 8%    
California Datamar Feb. 15 34% 24% 16% 41% 17% 11%    
California ARG Jan. 17 36% 33% 6% 33% 18% 3%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Colorado ARG Sep. 18 36% 20% 19% 20% 12% 8% 25% 2%
Colorado ARG July 18 39% 22% 10% 35% 11% 9% 20%  
Colorado ARG Apr. 2 34% 23% 17% 25% 23% 9%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Connecticut Quinnipiac Nov. 5 45% 19% 7% 41% 12% 13% 7% 4%
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 43% 16% 8% 42% 14% 9% 10% 2%
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. May 7 28% 20% 8% 36% 15% 9%    
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Feb. 12 33% 21% 5% 43% 27% 4%    
Connecticut ARG Feb. 6 40% 8% 10% 32% 21% 14%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Delaware Fairleigh Dickinson U. Feb. 25 34% 19% 10%          
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Florida SurveyUSA Dec. 4 54% 24% 13% 32% 11% 15% 14% 18%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Dec. 3 53% 17% 7% 30% 9% 12% 10% 11%
Florida Opinion Research Nov. 26 51% 21% 11% 38% 11% 17% 11% 9%
Florida Mason-Dixon Nov. 14 42% 15% 12% 36% 10% 15% 12% 8%
Florida Schroth Eldon Nov. 7 48% 24% 8% 36% 12% 19% 8% 9%
Florida SurveyUSA Nov. 5 56% 19% 14% 34% 10% 17% 22% 8%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Oct. 22 43% 18% 12% 27% 8% 17% 19% 8%
Florida Insider Advantage Oct. 19 53% 19% 9% 33% 9% 17% 13%  
Florida Mason-Dixon Sep. 18 47% 19% 9% 24% 9% 13% 23%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Sep. 9 42% 13% 9% 28% 10% 11% 17%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 43% 13% 8% 26% 11% 9% 19%  
Florida Mason-Dixon July 26 31% 17% 12% 21% 11% 7% 18%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. July 16 36% 14% 9% 30% 10% 9% 18%  
Florida ARG July 15 45% 25% 9% 33% 7% 12% 27%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. June 25 43% 16% 11% 29% 13% 9% 29%  
Florida Zogby June 6 36% 16% 11% 31% 12% 12% 10%  
Florida Schroth/Polling Co.B207 May 9 42% 19% 12% 29% 15% 14%    
Florida ARG May 8 45% 17% 15% 31% 18% 11%    
Florida Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 13% 11% 38% 15% 7%    
Florida U. of North Florida Apr. 13 35% 20% 9% 31% 14% 6%    
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 27 36% 13% 11% 35% 15% 5%    
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 38% 13% 6% 38% 18% 6%    
Florida Quinnipiac U. Feb. 4 49% 13% 7% 29% 23% 6%    
Florida ARG Jan. 9 30% 14% 15% 30% 15% 2%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Georgia ARG Aug. 6 35% 25% 17% 20% 7% 14% 27% 3%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Idaho Greg Smith July 13 31% 33% 15% 20% 14% 38% 18%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Illinois ARG July 9 33% 37% 10% 30% 12% 11% 21% 2%
Illinois ARG Jan. 14 30% 36% 5% 33% 24% 12%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Iowa Rasmussen Dec. 10 29% 26% 22% 8% 6% 23% 8% 39%
Iowa Mason-Dixon Dec. 6 27% 25% 21% 5% 7% 20% 11% 32%
Iowa Princeton Survey Dec. 6 29% 35% 18% 9% 6% 17% 10% 39%
Iowa Zogby Dec. 1 27% 24% 21% 12% 5% 26% 8% 25%
Iowa ARG Nov. 29 25% 27% 23% 9% 9% 28% 14% 27%
Iowa Selzer Nov. 28 25% 28% 23% 13% 7% 24% 9% 29%
Iowa Rasmussen Nov. 27 27% 25% 24% 12% 4% 25% 11% 28%
Iowa Princeton Survey Nov. 25 31% 26% 19%          
Iowa Washington Post Nov. 18 26% 30% 22% 13% 6% 28% 15% 24%
Iowa Iowa State U. Nov. 18 31% 20% 24% 16% 8% 25% 9% 22%
Iowa ARG Nov. 14 27% 21% 20% 11% 10% 26% 11% 24%
Iowa Research 2000 Nov. 14 27% 25% 21% 16% 6% 27% 10% 18%
Iowa NY Times Nov. 11 25% 22% 23% 17% 13% 15% 13% 17%
Iowa Zogby Nov. 7 28% 25% 21% 14% 6% 33% 12% 8%
Iowa ARG Oct. 29 32% 22% 15% 16% 14% 27% 8%  
Iowa U. of Iowa Oct. 24 29% 27% 20% 13% 6% 36% 11%  
Iowa Rasmussen Oct. 14 33% 21% 22% 13% 6% 25% 19%  
Iowa Selzer Oct. 3 29% 22% 23% 11% 7% 29% 18%  
Iowa Princeton Survey Sep. 27 31% 25% 21% 15% 7% 25% 16%  
Iowa LA Times Sep. 10 28% 19% 23% 16% 7% 28% 16%  
Iowa ARG Aug. 29 28% 23% 20% 17% 5% 27% 13%  
Iowa Zogby Aug. 18 30% 19% 23% 14% 6% 33% 12%  
Iowa U. of Iowa Aug. 5 25% 19% 26% 11% 3% 28% 8%  
Iowa Selzer July 31 26% 26% 27% 14% 26% 8% 13%  
Iowa ARG July 30 30% 15% 21% 22% 17% 21% 13%  
Iowa Research 2000 July 25 22% 16% 27% 13% 10% 25% 14%  
Iowa ARG June 30 32% 13% 29% 18% 13% 25% 14%  
Iowa Mason-Dixon June 16 22% 18% 21% 15% 6% 25% 17%  
Iowa Selzer May 16 21% 23% 29% 17% 18% 30%    
Iowa Research 2000 May 15 28% 22% 26% 17% 18% 16%    
Iowa Zogby May 15 24% 22% 26% 16% 18% 17%    
Iowa ARG Apr. 30 23% 19% 27% 19% 26% 14%    
Iowa U. of Iowa Mar. 31 28% 19% 34% 21% 20% 17%    
Iowa Zogby Mar. 26 25% 23% 27% 25% 19% 11%    
Iowa ARG Mar. 23 34% 16% 33% 29% 29% 10%    
Iowa Zogby Feb. 9 24% 24% 18% 19% 17% 5%    
Iowa Zogby Jan. 16 16% 27% 17% 19% 17% 5%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Kansas Research 2000 May 23 27% 22% 21% 13% 13% 17% 7% 1%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Maine Critical Insights Oct. 30 46% 10% 5% 11% 7% 15% 9%  
Maine Critical Insights Apr. 27 39% 22% 16% 24% 21% 12%    
Maine ARG Feb. 6 41% 14% 17% 33% 22% 13%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Maryland Washington Post Oct. 22 48% 29% 8% 39% 18% 10% 14% 2%
Maryland OpinionWorks Aug. 26 32% 19% 10% 32% 13% 8% 12%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Massachusetts Suffolk U. Apr. 15 32% 18% 19%          
Massachusetts ARG Feb. 6 35% 24% 19% 29% 30% 7%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Michigan EPIC/MRA Nov. 13 49% 18% 15% 28% 12% 25% 13% 9%
Michigan ARG Sep. 4 43% 21% 14% 13% 9% 39% 12% 4%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 31 40% 21% 16% 23% 15% 25% 16%  
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 13 45% 26% 16% 19% 16% 12% 22%  
Michigan EPIC/MRA June 13 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24% 8%  
Michigan ARG May 7 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24%    
Michigan EPIC/MRA Mar. 18 45% 29% 16% 26% 30% 21%    
Michigan ARG Mar. 4 35% 30% 14% 30% 35%      
Michigan EPIC/MRA Feb. 4 49% 20% 8% 32% 28% 8%    
Michigan ARG Jan. 7 30% 30% 17% 34% 24% 10%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Minnesota Princeton Survey Sep. 23 47% 22% 16% 27% 22% 5% 16% 2%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Missouri Research 2000 Nov. 15 36% 21% 20% 24% 14% 17% 16% 12%
Missouri ARG Aug. 6 40% 15% 22% 23% 14% 11% 22%  
Missouri ARG Jan. 9 30% 18% 17% 18% 31% 2%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Nevada ARG Dec. 6 45% 18% 14% 17% 7% 29% 5% 23%
Nevada ARG Dec. 6 45% 18% 14% 17% 7% 29% 5% 23%
Nevada Mason-Dixon Dec. 5 34% 26% 9% 25% 7% 20% 9% 17%
Nevada Research 2000 Nov. 19 45% 20% 12% 29% 8% 22% 15% 6%
Nevada Opinion Research Nov. 13 51% 23% 11% 28% 8% 20% 13% 5%
Nevada Zogby Nov. 10 37% 19% 15% 28% 8% 20% 13% 5%
Nevada Mason-Dixon Oct. 11 39% 21% 9% 28% 8% 18% 23%  
Nevada Research 2000 Aug. 16 33% 19% 15% 18% 8% 28% 18%  
Nevada Mason-Dixon June 22 39% 17% 12% 17% 8% 20% 25%  
Nevada ARG June 19 40% 16% 16% 21% 16% 23% 16%  
Nevada Mason-Dixon May 1 37% 12% 13% 12% 19% 15%    
Nevada Zogby Apr. 12 35% 21% 15% 37% 15% 15%    
Nevada Research 2000 Mar. 8 32% 20% 11% 38% 18% 4%    
Nevada Research 2000 Feb. 2 33% 19% 15% 18% 8% 28% 18%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New Hampshire Rasmussen Dec. 11 28% 31% 17% 17% 19% 31% 4% 10%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Dec. 10 33% 26% 15% 17% 19% 31% 4% 10%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Dec. 10 31% 30% 16% 19% 19% 32% 1% 9%
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon Dec. 6 30% 27% 10% 17% 16% 25% 6% 11%
New Hampshire Zogby Dec. 3 32% 21% 16% 15% 17% 35% 3% 10%
New Hampshire Washington Post Dec. 3 35% 29% 17% 16% 20% 37% 4% 9%
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Dec. 2 37% 24% 18% 18% 18% 31% 4% 11%
New Hampshire Opiinion Dynamics Nov. 29 30% 23% 12% 19% 21% 29% 4% 7%
New Hampshire ARG Nov. 29 34% 23% 17% 22% 11% 36% 3% 13%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Nov. 29 33% 26% 15% 15% 15% 34% 3% 14%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Nov. 27 34% 22% 15% 20% 13% 34% 2% 7%
New Hampshire Princeton Survey Nov. 25 38% 19% 15% 16% 18% 33% 4% 5%
New Hampshire NY Times Nov. 12 37% 22% 9% 16% 16% 34% 5% 6%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Nov. 7 35% 21% 15% 20% 17% 32% 3% 5%
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Nov. 6 38% 26% 14% 23% 14% 34% 5% 7%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Nov. 5 34% 24% 15% 17% 16% 32% 7% 10%
New Hampshire ARG Oct. 29 40% 22% 10% 23% 17% 30% 5%  
New Hampshire Saint Anselm Coll. Oct. 21 43% 22% 14% 22% 15% 32% 5%  
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Oct. 9 43% 21% 12% 21% 17% 27% 10%  
New Hampshire Zogby Sep. 28 38% 23% 12% 21% 16% 24% 7%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Sep. 24 41% 19% 11% 22% 17% 23% 12%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Sep. 14 36% 18% 12% 23% 14% 30% 8%  
New Hampshire LA Times Sep. 10 35% 16% 16% 23% 12% 28% 11%  
New Hampshire ARG Aug. 29 37% 17% 14% 23% 12% 27% 8%  
New Hampshire Hart/McLaughlin July 26 36% 19% 15% 17% 16% 33% 13%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire July 17 36% 27% 9% 20% 12% 34% 13%  
New Hampshire Research 2000 July 11 33% 25% 15% 21% 18% 28% 11%  
New Hampshire ARG June 30 34% 25% 11% 19% 21% 27% 10%  
New Hampshire Suffolk U. June 24 37% 19% 9% 22% 13% 26% 13%  
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon June 7 26% 21% 18% 15% 16% 27% 12%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. June 6 41% 17% 15% 18% 17% 27% 9%  
New Hampshire Zogby May 16 28% 26% 15% 19% 19% 35%    
New Hampshire ARG Apr. 29 37% 14% 26% 17% 29% 24%    
New Hampshire Zogby Apr. 3 29% 23% 23% 19% 25% 25%    
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Apr. 3 27% 20% 21% 29% 29% 17%    
New Hampshire ARG Mar. 23 37% 23% 20% 19% 23% 17%    
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Mar. 12 32% 25% 16% 28% 29% 22%    
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Feb. 28 28% 26% 17% 37% 27% 17%    
New Hampshire Zogby/UNH Feb. 8 27% 23% 13% 27% 28% 13%    
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 17 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% 13%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New Jersey Rutgers-Eagleton Oct. 23 52% 21% 8% 54% 12% 6% 6% 3%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 46% 20% 9% 48% 12% 7% 12% 1%
New Jersey Rutgers/Eagleton Aug. 7 45% 21% 16% 61% 10% 5% 8%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. July 2 46% 19% 8% 48% 12% 7% 10%  
New Jersey Monmouth U. Apr. 16 41% 22% 13% 49% 19% 6%    
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Apr. 16 38% 16% 9% 49% 18% 6%    
New Jersey Fairleigh Dickinson U. Mar. 4 46% 18% 10% 59% 20% 6%    
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Feb. 25 41% 19% 5% 58% 15% 2%    
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Jan. 22 30% 8% 16% 39% 21% 5%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New Mexico Rsearch and Polling Sep. 6 17% 8% 8% 38% 20% 7%    
New Mexico ARG Jan. 13 22% 17% 12% 38% 20% 7%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New York Siena Coll. Dec. 6 50% 19% 10% 48% 15% 7% 7% 7%
New York Blum+Weprin Nov. 3 45% 19% 7% 42% 11% 8% 9% 6%
New York Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 49% 12% 11% 45% 9% 7% 12%  
New York Siena Coll. Sep. 16 42% 17% 11% 47% 16% 6% 9%  
New York Siena Coll. July 28 48% 14% 7% 40% 13% 7% 11%  
New York Quinnipiac U. June 17 44% 14% 6% 46% 8% 3% 14%  
New York Siena Coll. Apr. 20 39% 17% 11% 47% 16% 8%    
New York Blum+Weprin Apr. 7 49% 17% 11% 56% 15% 5%    
New York ARG Apr. 2 41% 20% 16% 50% 14% 7%    
New York Quinnipiac U. Apr. 2 44% 14% 9% 52% 13% 6%    
New York Siena Coll. Mar. 22 43% 11% 7% 31% 20% 6%    
New York Quinnipiac U. Feb. 11 47% 16% 7% 51% 17% 1%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
North Carolina Public Policy Polling Dec. 3 31% 24% 26%          
North Carolina Elon U. Sep. 27 37% 18% 18% 21% 12% 8% 28% 2%
North Carolina Elon U. Apr. 19 20% 20% 26% 32% 22% 10%    
North Carolina ARG Jan. 15 26% 19% 30% 34% 26% 2%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Dec. 3 45% 19% 13% 29% 13% 7% 7% 10%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Nov. 11 42% 17% 14% 27% 14% 11% 13% 7%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 47% 19% 11% 29% 10% 8% 17% 4%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Sep. 3 44% 15% 11% 23% 17% 11% 15%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 41% 16% 11% 29% 11% 8% 11%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. July 9 35% 17% 13% 24% 14% 8% 18%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. June 25 46% 14% 15% 26% 16% 8% 18%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. May 13 38% 19% 11% 23% 17% 11%    
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 37% 14% 17% 23% 21% 6%    
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 19 32% 22% 11% 31% 20% 6%    
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 32% 19% 13% 35% 18% 3%    
Ohio U. of Akron Feb. 21 42% 16% 17% 36% 28% 6%    
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Jan. 28 38% 11% 13% 30% 22% 4%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Oklahoma Sooner Apr. 30 29% 13% 29% 32% 23% 6% 15% 2%
Oklahoma ARG Feb. 13 40% 15% 16% 37% 21% 2%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Oregon Riley Research Aug. 15 26% 18% 17% 16% 8% 15% 11% 3%
Oregon Riley Research Mar. 13 31% 21% 8% 33% 20% 5%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Dec. 3 43% 15% 9% 27% 13% 6% 6% 13%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Nov. 5 46% 15% 11% 29% 12% 7% 11% 6%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 41% 14% 11% 32% 13% 8% 13% 2%
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. Sep. 2 38% 21% 17% 32% 19% 12% 11%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 20 42% 12% 8% 31% 13% 7% 8%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 35% 19% 10% 29% 16% 3% 14%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. June 25 38% 22% 10% 29% 16% 4% 15%  
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. June 4 40% 18% 21% 29% 29% 12%    
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 14% 13% 29% 17% 5%    
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 25 36% 17% 9% 33% 18% 5%    
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 29% 18% 11% 43% 17% 6%    
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Feb. 20 42% 16% 11% 37% 29% 6%    
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Feb. 5 37% 11% 11% 30% 20% 4%    
Pennsylvania ARG Jan. 8 32% 12% 13% 35% 25% 1%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Rhode Island Brown U. Sep. 9 35% 16% 7%          
Rhode Island Brown U. Jan. 27 33% 8% 15%          
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
South Carolina SurveyUSA Dec. 9 44% 40% 11% 13% 10% 19% 18% 30%
South Carolina Mason-Dixon Dec. 6 28% 25% 18% 17% 10% 15% 14% 20%
South Carolina Rasmussen Dec. 4 36% 34% 13% 12% 9% 18% 18% 25%
South Carolina Insider Advantage Dec. 4 22% 28% 14% 17% 10% 14% 17% 23%
South Carolina ARG Nov. 29 41% 19% 18% 23% 10% 21% 13% 18%
South Carolina Clemson U. Nov. 27 19% 17% 12% 9% 11% 17% 15% 13%
South Carolina Princeton Survey Nov. 25 45% 31% 10%          
South Carolina SurveyUSA Nov. 11 47% 33% 10% 26% 14% 20% 18% 12%
South Carolina ARG Oct. 29 41% 19% 18% 23% 32% 10% 13% 5%
South Carolina Winthrop U. Oct. 28 33% 23% 10% 17% 9% 17% 18%  
South Carolina Rasmussen Sep. 27 43% 30% 10% 20% 11% 15% 24%  
South Carolina LA Times Sep. 10 45% 27% 7% 23% 15% 9% 26%  
South Carolina ARG Aug. 29 32% 21% 24% 26% 12% 9% 21%  
South Carolina Clemson U. Aug. 29 26% 16% 10% 18% 15% 11% 19%  
South Carolina ARG July 30 29% 33% 18% 28% 10% 7% 27%  
South Carolina Opinion Research July 18 27% 27% 17% 30% 21% 6% 18%  
South Carolina ARG June 30 37% 22% 21% 22% 23% 8% 19%  
South Carolina Mason-Dixon June 15 25% 34% 12% 21% 7% 11% 25%  
South Carolina Winthrop U. May 27 29% 21% 11% 19% 14% 12% 6%  
South Carolina ARG Apr. 30 36% 24% 18% 23% 36% 6%    
South Carolina Hamilton/McHenry Apr. 19 31% 27% 16% 15% 24% 10%    
South Carolina Zogby Apr. 17 33% 26% 21% 19% 22% 10%    
South Carolina ARG Feb. 27 36% 25% 20% 29% 35% 5%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Texas U. of Texas May 7 33% 21% 8% 23% 27% 6% 11%  
Texas ARG Mar. 19 34% 32% 11% 30% 20% 13%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Utah Dan Jones Oct. 4       8% 6% 65% 3% 2%
Utah ARG Feb. 13 31% 18% 9% 13% 21% 40%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Vermont Research 2000 Oct. 19 47% 15% 10% 44% 13% 7% 12% 2%
Vermont ARG Feb. 6 37% 19% 14% 29% 30% 7%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Virginia Washington Post Oct. 8 49% 25% 11% 34% 20% 9% 19%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Washington U. of Washington Oct. 28 44% 29% 16% 34% 19% 15% 16% 9%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
West Virginia ARG Apr. 2 37% 22% 19% 29% 33% 8%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
Wisconsin U. of Wisconsin Dec. 5 39% 26% 15% 25% 15% 5% 30% 8%
Wisconsin St. Norbert Coll. Nov. 8 43% 25% 15% 32% 13% 8% 14% 11%
Wisconsin St. Norbert Coll. Apr. 17 33% 30% 18% 26% 24% 9%    

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

Preview of the 2008 races:           President       Senate       House      

This map shows the current governors:



This map shows the current Senate:



This map shows the current House:



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