Apr. 16 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Kerry 252   Bush 286  
Senate: Dem 51   GOP 49  
House: Dem 233   GOP 201   Ties 1

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strong Dem Strong Dem (146)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (69)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (37)
weak GOP Weak GOP (66)
strong GOP Strong GOP (183)
  Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  

News from the Votemaster

Today is money day. For presidential candidates, the first quarter fundraising totals are now in for everyone to pick apart. For everyone else, IRS is calling. Below are the key numbers for the candidates, sorted by cash on hand. The gross receipts include transfers from existing campaign funds, which distorts things a little bit. Hillary transferred $10 M from her Senate fund, Biden transferred $2 M, Dodd transferred $5 M, Giuliani transferred $2 M, and McCain transferred $1 M.

Can we draw any conclusions from this data? Probably. First, the presumed front runners, Hillary Clinton and John McCain were supposed to wrap it up now and have everyone else disappear into the woodwork. It ain't gonna happen. While Hillary has more money in the bank than anyone else, that is due to her transferring $10 M from her Senate pot. Also, she raised $6.9 million for the general election, which inflates her totals. If she is not the nominee, she has to give it back. Second, Barack Obama did incredibly well for a newbie. He has more money in the bank than McCain and Giuliani, the top-two polling Republicans, combined. Third, The polls and the money don't correlate that well. Romney collected more money than any other Republican by a mile, but he can barely break 10% in the polls. Similarly, Edwards is way behind in the polls (except in Iowa, which counts for a lot), but in the money race is definitely competitive. Fourth, and in a way most surprising, the Democrats raised a lot more money than the Republicans. This hasn't happened in decades. Will it inspire Republican donors to whip out their checkbooks or will it inspire them to go sulk in the corner? I'll let you know in July.

The second quarter fundraising should be even more interesting now that it is clear Clinton and McCain aren't inevitable. People who might have been afraid to contribute to one of their opponents for fear of retribution later may become emboldened. Today's numbers can only help the challengers and hurt the heirs apparent.

Below is the summary of where we stand now, with all numbers given in megabucks. In some cases the arithmetic looks wrong but that is just due to the rounding. If you want all the data down to the last penny, see Politicalmoneyline.com.


Candidate Gross receipts Expenditures Cash on hand
Hillary Clinton 36.0 5.1 31.0
Barack Obama 25.8 6.6 19.2
John Edwards 14.0 3.3 10.7
Chris Dodd 8.8 1.3 7.5
Bill Richardson 6.2 1.2 5.0
Joe Biden 4.0 1.1 2.8
Dennis Kucinich    0.4 0.2 0.2
Mike Gravel 0.1 0.1 0.0


Candidate Gross receipts Expenditures Cash on hand
Rudy Giuliani 18.0 6.1 11.9
Mitt Romney 23.4 11.6 11.9
John McCain 14.8 9.6 5.2
Sam Brownback 1.9 1.1 0.8
Tom Tancredo 1.3 0.7 0.6
Ron Paul 0.6 0.1 0.5
Duncan Hunter 0.5 0.3 0.3
Tommy Thompson 0.4 0.3 0.1
Jim Gilmore 0.2 0.1 0.1

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

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-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

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