Projected New Senate: 48 Democrats 51 Republicans 1 tie

	Strong Dem (41)
	Weak Dem (6)
	Barely Dem (1)
	Exactly tied (1)
	Barely GOP (2)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Sep. 30	New polls:	NY VA
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Virginia is shaping up to be a real close race, so it is attracting more polling. We have two polls today. SurveyUSA puts incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA) ahead of former Reagan Navy Secretary turned Democrat Jim Webb 50% to 44%, while Mason-Dixon puts the race at an exact tie, 43% to 43%.

A NYT poll puts Hillary ahead of her Republican opponent by more than 30 percentage points, 59% to 27%.

Over in the House, there is an interesting race in PA-07. In our first poll, Admiral Joe Sestak is in a statistical tie with incumbent Curt Weldon (R) in a district Weldon has long represented. The poll is 45% to 44% in favor of Sestak.

In OH-06, Democratic candidate is doing well against Republican Chuck Blasdel, 54% to 41%, according to SurveyUSA.

Finally, in KY-03, Republican incumbent Anne Northup is leading newspaper publisher John Yarmuth 50% to 44% according to SurveyUSA.

In other news, Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL-16) abruptly resigned from Congress yesterday saying this was the right thing to do. The details haven't come out yet, but it looks like sex and teenage boys are involved in ways not yet clear. From a political point of view, FL-16 is a badly gerrymandered district, with bits on both the east and west coasts of Florida as well as a chunk in the middle. It is highly Republican, but with the new candidate yet to be chosen, he will not have much time to introduce himself to the voters against Democrat Tim Mahoney, a wealthy venture capitalist, who has been campaigning for months. This district may suddenly be in play.

Projected New House*: 216 Democrats 219 Republicans

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

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